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More Record Closing Highs as Fed Government May Be Closing

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Key Takeaways

  • A Pending Government Shutdown Did Not Shy Away Market Bulls
  • JOLTS Numbers Came In Higher, Chicago Business & Consumer Confidence Lower
  • NIKE Beats Q1 Earnings, Swings to Positive Revenue Growth

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Three of the four top market indexes notched fresh all-time closing highs today on renewed exuberance for AI, with NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) becoming the first company ever to reach a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion. Even the small-cap Russell 2000, which spent most of the session in the red and is still shy of a new high, managed to eke out gains. The Dow was +81 points, the S&P 500 +27, the Nasdaq +68 and the Russell +1.6 points.

 

NIKE Beats Q1 Estimates, Brings Revenue Growth

 

Very good news for NIKE NKE this afternoon: the global shoes and apparel giant reported much better-than-expected fiscal Q1 earnings, at 49 cents per share versus expectations for a mere 27 cents. It's still below the 70 cents per share reported a year ago, but keep in mind this is one of the most tariff-affected companies on the planet. Revenues surprised to the upside, reporting +1% year over year growth to $11.7 billion. This is compared to an expected contraction of nearly -5% for the quarter.

The company's focus on the North American market paid off in the quarter, as +4% revenue growth was higher than projections. Wholesale and Running sub-sectors performed particularly well in Q1. The Mainland China market grew another +9%. Shares were up +2% initially on the news, but have pulled back somewhat. Shares are still down -6% year to date.

 

Economic Prints Underwhelm for August and September


Earlier today, we saw a number of reports helping to articulate our present economic position, or at least that of our last month or two. Chief among them is the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for August, which saw a bump up to 7.23 million job openings last month, up from the 7.1 million expected. This follows the slightly upwardly revised 7.21 million the prior month.

Leisure & Hospitality had the most open jobs by industry at +97K, followed by Healthcare & Social Assistance at +81K and Retail at +55K. Negative job openings were seen in Construction, -115K, and Federal Government, -61K. By region, the South has the most labor demand, +86K, with the Midwest +44K. The Northeast and West were down -66K and -46K, respectively. Job Quits reached +1.9% in August, the lowest of the year so far.

Importantly, with a looming federal government shutdown based on the failure to pass a budget resolution today, this may be the only government report we see on jobs this week, with Thursday’s expected Weekly Jobless Claims provided by the U.S. Department of Labor and Friday’s nonfarm payroll report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Wednesday’s private-sector payrolls report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) are expected, as per normal.

The Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) for September today came in below expectations: 40.6 from a 43.8 projected, following 41.5 the previous month. It’s also the 22nd straight month below the 50 threshold determining expansion from contraction. It’s a prolonged sour note for business owners in the Chicagoland area, the most populous U.S. region outside of New York or Los Angeles.

Consumer Confidence for September also came in below projections earlier today: 94.2, versus the 96.0 analysts were looking for. This comes from an upwardly revised 97.8 the prior month. Its Present Situation survey fell seven points to 125.4, and its Expectations Index dropped -1.3 points to 73.4. Generally, any tally sub-80 indicates expectations are for a recession on the horizon.

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