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November Becomes a Challenging Market After A Strong October
Jobs Week May Again Go Silent with the Government Shutdown
OPEC Adjusts Global Oil Output Through Q1 Next Year
What’s happening in this Global Week Ahead?
A roller-coaster 2025 is entering its final weeks
The one-year anniversary of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election arrives, alongside
Key central bank decisions in Australia and the U.K., and
S&P500 Q3 earnings reports
These could set the short-term tone for markets.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered by equity traders—
(1) Should investors brace for a tricky November — in over-heated share markets?
Investors had been gorging on Halloween treats, but they should brace for a potentially tricky November.
The Federal Reserve has delivered its second rate cut of the year, Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) market value hit $5 trillion as “AI fever” drives stocks ever higher, and battered bonds end October with strong (price) gains.
But in France, a fragmented parliament is beset by volatile budget talks, while Britain faces a key Nov 26 budget test.
The U.S. Supreme Court on November 5th hears arguments on the legality of Trump's sweeping tariffs, and as a government shutdown continues, uncertainty bubbling away in the background could morph into market angst.
(2) A non-release of U.S. non-farm payroll data looms large.
The premier event in the coming week may be the non-release of U.S. payrolls data, for the second time, due to the government shutdown.
The employment report is the biggest U.S. economic data-point each month and normally falls on the first Friday. There will be no data on job openings, either.
Without those, the Federal Reserve will continue to fly almost blind as it navigates what looked like a cooling labor market when it commenced easing in September and followed up on October 29th with another quarter-point cut.
Markets will have to focus on a second-tier private-sector release: Wednesday's ADP October National Employment report, which does not have a reliable history of foreshadowing the government jobs data.
Earnings are still coming thick and fast, but most of the AI megacaps have already reported and kept Wall Street's runaway train on track.
(3) OPEC+ meets, amidst great uncertainty about underlying demand growth.
The oil market finds itself at an interesting juncture.
On the one hand, there's a possibility that new Western sanctions on Russian oil might help curb a ballooning global surplus of unused oil.
On the other, the world's largest exporters are jostling for market share as they unwind self-imposed COVID-era production cuts.
OPEC+, as expected, reached an agreement for small oil output increases in December and a pause in increases in calendar Q1 2026, in efforts to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut.
In the meantime, the price of crude has struggled to get much above $65 a barrel, stuck in a range of around $63-78 for the better part of a year.
With so much uncertainty still over the impact on energy demand from the seismic shifts in global trade, even the International Energy Agency says the most likely direction for prices — in the absence of major geopolitical tensions — is lower.
(4) On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is broadly expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.6% when it meets on Tuesday.
But the most recent hot inflation report has crushed hopes of a rate cut and complicates the outlook.
Consumer prices jumped the most in 2-1/2 years in the September quarter as electricity and travel costs climbed, with annual CPI inflation rate jumping to 3.2%, from 2.1%, above the top end of the RBA's target band.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said a Q3 rise in core inflation of 0.9% would constitute a "material miss.” The even-higher reading suggests the RBA, which has made three 25-basis-points cuts so far this year, is now firmly on hold.
Westpac analysts recently wrote that even a February cut was "far from certain now,” given this quarter's inflation surprise.
(5) On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) also meets to set monetary policy.
Good news for those who want more central bank excitement: the Bank of England is here.
While markets were all-but-fully pricing in a Fed cut and ECB and BOJ holds this week — expectations that the central banks met — the situation is different for the BoE, with markets seeing around a 30% chance of 25 basis point easing.
If that doesn't change ahead of Thursday's meeting, someone will be disappointed no matter what, and there may be meaningful moves in sterling and gilts.
The decision will come down to how policymakers view September's 3.8% CPI print.
Big brokerages are split:
Goldman Sachs and Barclays see a cut, while
Bank of America, UBS, and Deutsche envision a hold
Either way, it's going to be close.
There are nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee and a 5-4 thriller is possible.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked the 3 biggest, by market capitalization, Zacks #1 Rank stocks this week.
(1) ASML Holding (ASML - Free Report) : This is a $1,075 a share stock, with a market cap of $421.1B. It is found in the Zacks Semiconductor Equipment-Wafer Fabrication industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ASML is a world leader in the manufacture of advanced technology systems for the semiconductor industry.
The company offers an integrated portfolio for manufacturing complex integrated circuits.
ASML designs, develops, integrates, markets and services advanced systems used by customers the major global semiconductor manufacturers to create chips that power a wide array of electronic, communications and information technology products.
(2) Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) : This is a $165 a share stock, with a market cap of $261.8B. It is found in the Zacks Financial-Investment Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Morgan Stanley, being the leading financial services holding company, serves corporations, governments, foreign investors & individuals world-wide.
It has 3 business units:
1. The Institutional Securities unit includes capital raising, financial advisory services on mergers & acquisitions, restructurings, real estate & project finance, corporate lending, sales, trading, financing & market-making activities in equity & fixed income securities & related products.
2. The Wealth Management unit provides brokerage & investment advisory services on various investment alternatives, financial & wealth planning services, annuity & other insurance products, credit & other lending products, cash management & retirement services and trust & fiduciary services and engages in fixed income principal trading.
3. The Investment Management unit provides global asset management products & services in equity, fixed income, alternative investments in hedge funds & funds of funds and merchant banking i.e. real estate, private equity & infrastructure.
(3) Micron (MU - Free Report) : This is a $224 a share stock, with a market cap of $254.3B. It is found in the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Through global brands — namely Micron, Crucial and Ballistix — Micron manufactures and markets high-performance memory and storage technologies, including:
Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM)
NAND flash memory
NOR Flash
3D XPoint memory, and
Other technologies
Its solutions are used in leading-edge computing, consumer, networking and mobile products.
Key Global Macro
The start of any month supplies loads of critical and fresh macro data.
November will be no different.
Given last week’s FOMC October meeting, there will also be follow-up monetary policy decisions taken, in the anglosphere. Australia’s RBA and the U.K.’s BoE.
On Monday, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose by half a point in October to 52.5, from a downwardly revised — but still fairly robust — 52.0 the prior month.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October also came out, falling to 48.7% in the month from an expected gain to 49.3%. The prior reading here was a borderline 49.1.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offers up a monetary policy rate decision. No change from a 3.6% policy rate is expected.
On Tuesday, U.S. JOLTS job openings for SEP come out. I see a prior 7.227M number.
Mainland China’s RatingDog Services PMI for OCT comes out. The prior reading was a solid 52.9.
On Wednesday, U.S. private ADP job additions come out for OCT. The prior month of SEP was a tepid -32K.
On Thursday, there is a U.K. Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. 4.0% is the current policy rate there.
On Friday, Federal U.S. nonfarm payrolls may (or may not) come out. The prior monthly job additions reading was +22K; and the prior household unemployment rate was 4.3%.
Conclusion
On Oct. 29th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian updated Q3 earnings data.
Four key points:
(1) For the 222 S&P500 members that have reported Q3 results, total earnings are up +10.7% from the same period last year on +8% higher revenues, with 83.8% beating EPS estimates and 77.9% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these 222 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 68.5%.
(2) The Q3 earnings and revenue growth pace for these 222 index members represents an acceleration relative to what we have seen from this same group of companies in recent quarters.
The proportion of these 222 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking significantly above the historical averages for this same group of companies.
(3) Net income margins for this group of 222 index members of 12.27% is roughly even with the preceding quarter’s level (12.24%), but above the year-earlier level for these companies (11.97%).
The 20-quarter average for this group is 12.49%.
(4) Unlike other recent quarters, the revisions trend has been positive for Q3, with estimates modestly going up in the July-to-September period.
Given this revisions background, the above-average Q3 beats percentages can be interpreted to reflect improving momentum.
Enjoy the start of November, in trading and investing!
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
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A Tricky November Is Here: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What’s happening in this Global Week Ahead?
These could set the short-term tone for markets.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered by equity traders—
(1) Should investors brace for a tricky November — in over-heated share markets?
Investors had been gorging on Halloween treats, but they should brace for a potentially tricky November.
The Federal Reserve has delivered its second rate cut of the year, Nvidia's (NVDA - Free Report) market value hit $5 trillion as “AI fever” drives stocks ever higher, and battered bonds end October with strong (price) gains.
But in France, a fragmented parliament is beset by volatile budget talks, while Britain faces a key Nov 26 budget test.
The U.S. Supreme Court on November 5th hears arguments on the legality of Trump's sweeping tariffs, and as a government shutdown continues, uncertainty bubbling away in the background could morph into market angst.
(2) A non-release of U.S. non-farm payroll data looms large.
The premier event in the coming week may be the non-release of U.S. payrolls data, for the second time, due to the government shutdown.
The employment report is the biggest U.S. economic data-point each month and normally falls on the first Friday. There will be no data on job openings, either.
Without those, the Federal Reserve will continue to fly almost blind as it navigates what looked like a cooling labor market when it commenced easing in September and followed up on October 29th with another quarter-point cut.
Markets will have to focus on a second-tier private-sector release: Wednesday's ADP October National Employment report, which does not have a reliable history of foreshadowing the government jobs data.
Earnings are still coming thick and fast, but most of the AI megacaps have already reported and kept Wall Street's runaway train on track.
(3) OPEC+ meets, amidst great uncertainty about underlying demand growth.
The oil market finds itself at an interesting juncture.
On the one hand, there's a possibility that new Western sanctions on Russian oil might help curb a ballooning global surplus of unused oil.
On the other, the world's largest exporters are jostling for market share as they unwind self-imposed COVID-era production cuts.
OPEC+, as expected, reached an agreement for small oil output increases in December and a pause in increases in calendar Q1 2026, in efforts to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut.
In the meantime, the price of crude has struggled to get much above $65 a barrel, stuck in a range of around $63-78 for the better part of a year.
With so much uncertainty still over the impact on energy demand from the seismic shifts in global trade, even the International Energy Agency says the most likely direction for prices — in the absence of major geopolitical tensions — is lower.
(4) On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is broadly expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.6% when it meets on Tuesday.
But the most recent hot inflation report has crushed hopes of a rate cut and complicates the outlook.
Consumer prices jumped the most in 2-1/2 years in the September quarter as electricity and travel costs climbed, with annual CPI inflation rate jumping to 3.2%, from 2.1%, above the top end of the RBA's target band.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock has said a Q3 rise in core inflation of 0.9% would constitute a "material miss.” The even-higher reading suggests the RBA, which has made three 25-basis-points cuts so far this year, is now firmly on hold.
Westpac analysts recently wrote that even a February cut was "far from certain now,” given this quarter's inflation surprise.
(5) On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) also meets to set monetary policy.
Good news for those who want more central bank excitement: the Bank of England is here.
While markets were all-but-fully pricing in a Fed cut and ECB and BOJ holds this week — expectations that the central banks met — the situation is different for the BoE, with markets seeing around a 30% chance of 25 basis point easing.
If that doesn't change ahead of Thursday's meeting, someone will be disappointed no matter what, and there may be meaningful moves in sterling and gilts.
The decision will come down to how policymakers view September's 3.8% CPI print.
Big brokerages are split:
Either way, it's going to be close.
There are nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee and a 5-4 thriller is possible.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I picked the 3 biggest, by market capitalization, Zacks #1 Rank stocks this week.
(1) ASML Holding (ASML - Free Report) : This is a $1,075 a share stock, with a market cap of $421.1B. It is found in the Zacks Semiconductor Equipment-Wafer Fabrication industry. There is a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
ASML is a world leader in the manufacture of advanced technology systems for the semiconductor industry.
The company offers an integrated portfolio for manufacturing complex integrated circuits.
ASML designs, develops, integrates, markets and services advanced systems used by customers the major global semiconductor manufacturers to create chips that power a wide array of electronic, communications and information technology products.
(2) Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) : This is a $165 a share stock, with a market cap of $261.8B. It is found in the Zacks Financial-Investment Bank industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Morgan Stanley, being the leading financial services holding company, serves corporations, governments, foreign investors & individuals world-wide.
It has 3 business units:
1. The Institutional Securities unit includes capital raising, financial advisory services on mergers & acquisitions, restructurings, real estate & project finance, corporate lending, sales, trading, financing & market-making activities in equity & fixed income securities & related products.
2. The Wealth Management unit provides brokerage & investment advisory services on various investment alternatives, financial & wealth planning services, annuity & other insurance products, credit & other lending products, cash management & retirement services and trust & fiduciary services and engages in fixed income principal trading.
3. The Investment Management unit provides global asset management products & services in equity, fixed income, alternative investments in hedge funds & funds of funds and merchant banking i.e. real estate, private equity & infrastructure.
(3) Micron (MU - Free Report) : This is a $224 a share stock, with a market cap of $254.3B. It is found in the Zacks Computer-Integrated Systems industry. There is a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Through global brands — namely Micron, Crucial and Ballistix — Micron manufactures and markets high-performance memory and storage technologies, including:
Its solutions are used in leading-edge computing, consumer, networking and mobile products.
Key Global Macro
The start of any month supplies loads of critical and fresh macro data.
November will be no different.
Given last week’s FOMC October meeting, there will also be follow-up monetary policy decisions taken, in the anglosphere. Australia’s RBA and the U.K.’s BoE.
On Monday, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose by half a point in October to 52.5, from a downwardly revised — but still fairly robust — 52.0 the prior month.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October also came out, falling to 48.7% in the month from an expected gain to 49.3%. The prior reading here was a borderline 49.1.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) offers up a monetary policy rate decision. No change from a 3.6% policy rate is expected.
On Tuesday, U.S. JOLTS job openings for SEP come out. I see a prior 7.227M number.
Mainland China’s RatingDog Services PMI for OCT comes out. The prior reading was a solid 52.9.
On Wednesday, U.S. private ADP job additions come out for OCT. The prior month of SEP was a tepid -32K.
On Thursday, there is a U.K. Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. 4.0% is the current policy rate there.
On Friday, Federal U.S. nonfarm payrolls may (or may not) come out. The prior monthly job additions reading was +22K; and the prior household unemployment rate was 4.3%.
Conclusion
On Oct. 29th, 2025 Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian updated Q3 earnings data.
Four key points:
(1) For the 222 S&P500 members that have reported Q3 results, total earnings are up +10.7% from the same period last year on +8% higher revenues, with 83.8% beating EPS estimates and 77.9% beating revenue estimates.
The proportion of these 222 index members beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 68.5%.
(2) The Q3 earnings and revenue growth pace for these 222 index members represents an acceleration relative to what we have seen from this same group of companies in recent quarters.
The proportion of these 222 index members beating EPS and revenue estimates is tracking significantly above the historical averages for this same group of companies.
(3) Net income margins for this group of 222 index members of 12.27% is roughly even with the preceding quarter’s level (12.24%), but above the year-earlier level for these companies (11.97%).
The 20-quarter average for this group is 12.49%.
(4) Unlike other recent quarters, the revisions trend has been positive for Q3, with estimates modestly going up in the July-to-September period.
Given this revisions background, the above-average Q3 beats percentages can be interpreted to reflect improving momentum.
Enjoy the start of November, in trading and investing!
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist