A month has gone by since the last earnings report for American Public Education (APEI Quick QuoteAPEI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is American Public Education due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

American Public Q3 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates, Both Rise Y/Y

American Public Education reported impressive third-quarter 2025 results, wherein adjusted earnings and total revenues topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate and grew year over year.

The quarter’s strong performance was driven by robust contributions from Rasmussen University (RU), American Public University System (APUS) and Hondros College of Nursing (HCN), resulting in the company exceeding guided ranges across all the key metrics.

Continued progress on operational improvement initiatives also supported solid cash flow generation and margin expansion, reflecting the effectiveness of management’s strategic focus. However, the company revised its full-year 2025 guidance range downward for revenues and adjusted EBITDA.

APEI’s Q3 Discussion

APEI reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 30 cents, significantly beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a 9-cent loss by 433.3%. In the year-ago quarter, it reported an adjusted EPS of 4 cents.

Total revenues of $163.2 million also topped the consensus mark of $161 million by 1.6% and grew 6.6% from the year-ago period. Net course registration and enrollment growth, alongside strong registrations at APUS, aided the results.

Total costs and expenses increased 3% year over year to $153.5 million. This was mainly caused by an 8% increase in selling and promotional expenses.

Adjusted EBITDA increased year over year by 60% to $20.7 million from $12.9 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin of 13% expanded 500 basis points (bps) year over year from 8%.

American Public’s Segment Discussion

APUS: Revenues of $83.1 million rose 8% from the year-ago period’s level of $77 million. The uptick was primarily driven by growth in net course registrations, which increased 8% as compared to the prior-year period.

APUS’ total net course registration increased 8.1% from the year-ago period to about 100,000. The EBITDA margin was 32% compared with 29% in the prior-year quarter.

RU: The segment reported revenues of $60.8 million, which increased 15.6% year over year from $52.6 million. This was fueled by an increase in on-ground enrollment and in online enrollment.
 
RU’s total student enrollment increased 10.4% to 14,900, driven by 12% growth in on-ground enrollment and an 11% rise in online enrollment. EBITDA margin declined to 1% from 9% in the prior-year quarter.

HCN: The segment’s revenues rose 19% year over year to $18.4 million. The increase was backed by solid growth in student enrollment from community partners.

Total student enrollment at HCN increased 17.6% from the prior-year quarter’s level to 3,700. The segment reported a negative EBITDA margin of 2% compared with a break-even margin reported in the year-ago quarter.

APEI’s Financial Highlights

As of Sept. 30, 2025, American Public had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $193.1 million, up from $158.9 million at 2024-end.

Net long-term debt was $94.4 million at the third-quarter end, slightly up from $93.4 million at 2024-end.

American Public Unveils Q4 Guidance

The company expects total revenues to decrease 6-9% year over year to $150-$153.5 million. It expects to report a profit per share between 32 cents and 45 cents compared with 63 cents reported a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the band of $18.5-$22 million, reflecting a decline between 41% and 30% year over year.
 
APUS’ total net course registrations are likely to be in the band of 65,000-74,400, reflecting a decline between 33% and 23% year over year. HCN’s total enrollment is expected to increase 9% from the prior year’s figure to 4,000 students.

RU’s student enrollment is expected to be up 9% year over year to 15,900. On-ground healthcare enrollment is likely to increase 13% to 7,100 and online enrollment is expected to rise 6% year over year to 8,800.

APEI Revises 2025 Guidance

Total revenues are expected to grow 2-3% year over year to $640-$644 million (compared with the prior projected band of $650-$660 million). Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to be between $75 million and $79 million (down from the prior projected band of $81-$88 million), reflecting 5-9% growth year over year.

Capital expenditures continue to be expected in the band of $15-$17 million (down from the prior projected band of $18-$22 million), reflecting a decline of 19% to 29% from 2024.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted -30.59% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, American Public Education has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, American Public Education has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.