What is happening in this Global Week Ahead?

According to Scotiabank economist Derek Holt, this will be a lighter Global Week Ahead, partly because of relatively few — but key — expected policy and event developments, over the first full week of 2026.

The four major macro themes?

Those will be U.S. payrolls, Canadian jobs, a huge round of global inflation reports, and one solitary central bank decision out of Peru.
 

1. U.S. NONFARM JOBS NUMBERS IN DEC: OVERSTATED, WHATEVER HAPPENS

Chart of the Week: US Job Growth in 2025 Drops Toward 25-Year Lows Outside Crisis Periods

Image Source: Scotiabank Economics

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will further inform the state of the U.S. labor market on the path to the next policy decision by the Federal Reserve on January 28th.

A small gain of +25k with a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 4.5% is expected.

Consensus is somewhat higher on the magnitude of the gain.

Nobody should have much confidence in their estimates for this reading given low data quality, but data collection has returned to its pre-shutdown state (which wasn’t great to begin with).

There are very few advance labor market readings available so far, but we’ll get more in the week ahead of payrolls.

Consumer confidence jobs plentiful dipped. ‘Indeed’ job postings surged in December and late November over earlier in November, which points to a rise in JOLTS job openings. ADP private payrolls appear to have been up by about 50k but track nonfarm poorly. Layoff trackers pointed to fewer in December. Initial Jobless Claims have been reasonably well behaved while Continuing Claims have recently trended lower and point to a correlated dip in the Unemployment Rate.

Alt-data like Revelio and Homebase are not yet available for December.

December is normally a down-month for seasonally unadjusted payrolls. What happens next depends upon how the BLS manages seasonal adjustments. In each of the three prior reports they have gone with historical all-time highs for monthly seasonal adjustment factors when comparing like months across time. If they do the same thing this time, then that could add some upside.

Chart 1 shows scenarios for payrolls across differing seasonal adjustment factors and seasonally unadjusted readings.

Chart 1: US Nonfarm Payroll Scenarios for December
 

Image Source: Scotiabank Economics

And yet the arguments for how nonfarm payrolls are much weaker under the hood are likely to still apply. Take out healthcare hiring and private payrolls have been down or flat in six of the past seven months and healthcare hiring is vulnerable as subsidies expire.

Adjust for benchmarking revisions that have yet to be incorporated and payroll levels are much lower by just under a million up to last March and by more since then. Adjust for fishy seasonal adjustment factors that went high in each of the three months since Trump started attacking the BLS after firing its Commissioner. We’re getting low quality jobs data out of the US for these reasons plus others like falling survey response rates.

At some point — probably not yet — we’ll need to keep an eye on weather-adjusted payrolls given the widespread earlier snowstorms and adverse weather than prior years. The San Fran Fed’s weather-adjusted payrolls could be instructive.

The breakeven rate of payroll gains has shifted sharply lower amid draconian immigration policies, but a fact is a fact: the sharply weakening trend in job growth is getting too close to past recessionary signals for comfort as also argued in the aforementioned linked note.
 

2. CANADIAN JOB ADDITIONS FOR DEC 2025 ALSO COME OUT

Canada also updates jobs and related measures for the month of December on Friday at the exact same time as nonfarm payrolls (8:30am ET).

And whoop-de-doo. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is clearly on an extended pause as it evaluates a material amount of data and new developments after cutting down to a real policy rate that is about zero or even negative, depending on the measure of inflation or inflation expectations that is used.

After a string of massive employment gains, one report won’t sway them, which leaves us with bi-directional trading noise but probably no direct policy implications.

A small gain of +10k with a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6% could emerge.
 

3. GLOBAL INFLATION: AN INFLATION WATCHER’S PARADISE

Multiple major regions of the world economy will update inflation figures.

In many cases it’s likely that no central bank policy decision hangs in the balance.

Chart 2 updates where inflation readings stand in relation to central bank targets around the world.

In most cases, the war on inflation has yet to be won, which may help to explain why many central banks have hit pause on their easing cycles — like the BoC, ECB, RBA — or are encountering dissenting voices from within — like the BoE and Banxico.

Chart 2: Central Bank Report Card: Current Inflation Relative to Targets
 

Image Source: Scotiabank Economics

The Philippines (Monday night ET) kicks it off, followed by France and Germany early Tuesday morning, then Australia Tuesday evening. Italy weighs in on Wednesday morning, before the Eurozone tally and along with Taiwan. LatAm countries start releasing on Thursday (Mexico, Chile, Colombia). Chinese CPI and PPI (Thursday) will be followed by Brazil, Norway, Switzerland and Sweden on Friday.
 

4. PERU’S CENTRAL BANK — A FOURTH HOLD EXPECTED

Peru’s central bank perhaps didn’t take the hint when it noticed that no other central bank on the planet will be active this week. Or they march to the beat of their own drummer, in which case, good for them.

Thursday’s decision is expected to be another hold at a reference rate of 4.25% for a fourth straight meeting. CPI — out on New Year’s Day — was unlikely to alter the pattern of readings in the lower half of the 1-3% target range.

Key is that economic growth remains strong as indicated by the monthly activity index that continues to grow.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Will value be the new rotation this year?

This week, I picked three low share price global large cap stocks, to help answer that question.

(1) Vale (VALE Quick QuoteVALE - Free Report) : This is a $13 a share stock, with a market cap of $59.6B. It is found in Zacks Iron Mining industry. There is a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

(2) Trip.com (TRIP Quick QuoteTRIP - Free Report) : This is a $72 a share stock, with a market cap of $47.2B. It is found in the Zacks Leisure and Recreation industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

(3) Sandvik (SDVKY Quick QuoteSDVKY - Free Report) : This is a $32 a share stock, with a market cap of $40.9B. It is found in the Zacks Manufacturing – Tools and Related Products industry. There is a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Key Global Macro

The first full week of the calendar year is traditionally heavy on labor market and manufacturing data.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Conclusion

As we head into the first reporting cycle of 2026, the earnings outlook for Q4 2025 remains cautiously optimistic.

Analysts expect the S&P 500 to report its 10th consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth, though the pace of that growth is a subject of debate.

Here is the breakdown of the Q4 earnings landscape based on latest consensus data:
 

1. Key Growth Estimates

Consensus Forecast: The estimated year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 8.3% (according to FactSet), with Zacks a touch lower at +7.6% earnings growth.

Bullish Case: Some strategists, noting that companies typically beat initial estimates by several hundred basis points, suggest final Q4 growth could top out in the 12–14% range.

Revenue Growth: Revenue is projected to grow by approximately 8.3%, which, if realized, would be the highest revenue growth rate since Q3 2022. Again, Zacks shows a touch lower +7.7% revenue growth.
 

2. Sector Standouts

Growth is expected to be led by three primary sectors:

Information Technology: Continues to be the primary engine, with upward revisions to EPS estimates throughout the quarter driven by persistent AI infrastructure spending.

Financials: Expected to see double-digit growth (around 15%), particularly within Capital Markets and Insurance industries.

Energy: Surprisingly stable, with analysts slightly increasing estimates despite broader commodity volatility.

On the flip side, Consumer Staples and Health Care have seen the most significant downward revisions as companies grapple with rising input costs and shifting consumer behavior.

Best of luck, in your trading and investing.

Warm regards,

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist