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4 Mining Stocks Likely to Outperform Earnings Estimates in Q4
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Commodity markets provided a supportive backdrop for non-ferrous miners during the fourth quarter of 2025, with strength across both precious metals and copper. The mining stocks fall within the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector, which is shaping up favorably this earnings season. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, it is among 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors, which are expected to deliver year-over-year growth in earnings in the quarter. Sector earnings are projected to increase 2.8%, driven by a 9.5% rise in revenues, as higher realized commodity prices acted as a key tailwind.
Against this favorable backdrop, we have identified four mining companies HudBay Minerals (HBM - Free Report) , Lundin Mining (LUNMF - Free Report) , First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF - Free Report) and Teck Resources (TECK - Free Report) , that appear poised to beat earnings estimates this season and are also likely to deliver improved year-over-year results.
How Have Things Shaped Up for These Companies?
Price movements across key non-ferrous metals during the October–December 2025 period remained favorable, providing meaningful support to miners’ top lines. Gold and silver particularly delivered standout performances in the fourth quarter.
Gold touched a high of $4,557 an ounce in the quarter, with average prices soaring 55% year over year to a record $4,135 per ounce. Safe-haven demand as well as central-bank purchases supported prices. Notably, quarterly gold demand reached 1,303 tons, the highest ever for a fourth quarter. This was driven by robust ETF inflows (175 tons) and a 12-year high in bar and coin demand.
Silver prices also strengthened materially, hitting a quarterly high of $82.67 per ounce, with average prices up 74% year over year. Ongoing supply deficits, steady industrial demand and safe-haven interest continued to support prices.
Copper prices ranged from $4.80 per pound to a high of $5.89 in the fourth quarter. Average prices were $5.21, which were 22% higher than the last year quarter. Steady demand from electrification, renewable energy projects and grid infrastructure spending, amid supply concerns, continued to fuel prices.
Among other base metals, zinc prices trended higher through the quarter, supported by improving industrial activity and tightening inventories toward quarter-end. Nickel prices, while pressured earlier by oversupply from Indonesia (the world’s largest producer), rebounded later in the quarter on reports that Indonesia plans to curb its supply in 2026.
These favorable commodity price dynamics are expected to have bolstered revenues for diversified miners such as HudBay Minerals, Lundin Mining, First Quantum Minerals and Teck Resources, given their significant exposure to copper and base metals.
However, the operating environment remained challenging for miners. Higher input costs are likely to have somewhat offset the gains from higher prices on their margins in the fourth quarter. Miners have been focused on improving throughput, portfolio optimization and on higher-grade ore bodies to cushion the cost impact.
How to Pick Earnings Estimates Beating Stocks?
Identifying stocks that are poised to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases might seem a daunting task. However, our proprietary Zacks methodology makes it fairly simple. One can pick stocks, which have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chance of an earnings surprise is as much as 70%.
Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for determining stocks that have the best chances to surprise with their next earnings announcement. It is the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
4 Potential Outperformers This Season
HudBay Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 20.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 36.7% over the past 60 days and is pegged at 41 cents per share. It indicates a 127.8% increase from the year-ago quarter. The company has an average earnings surprise of 40.7% in the trailing four quarters.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, Hudbay produced approximately 33,069 tons of copper, 84,298 ounces of gold, 1 million ounces of silver, 5,703 tons of zinc and 325 tons of molybdenum. Compared with the prior-year quarter, copper output was down 24%, gold was down 10%, zinc was down 32% and silver was down 24%. Molybdenum production was up 67%.
Notably, output was down across all operations, Peru, Manitoba, British Columbia. Lower volumes are expected to have been more than offset by significantly higher metal prices. Moreover, HudBay’s industry-leading cost performance is likely to have supported margins in the fourth quarter.
First Quantum Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +26.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Quantum’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at seven cents per share, indicating a 75% increase from the year-ago quarter. The estimate has moved up 40% over the past 60 days. FQVLF has an average earnings surprise of 47.2% in the trailing four quarters.
First Quantum produced 101 thousand tons of copper in the fourth quarter, down 10% compared with the year-ago quarter. The Trident – Sentinel operations saw a 16% drop in production while Kansanshi delivered in-line results. Gold output was around 37,000 ounces, down 5% as higher output at Kansanshi was offset by weaker results at Guelb Moghrein. Nickel production soared 125% year over year to around 9,000 tons, driven by increased production at Trident – Enterprise.
The company sold 108 thousand tons of copper, marking a 4% decline. The impact of lower sales volumes on First Quantum’s revenues is expected to have been offset by higher prices in the quarter.
Teck Resources has an Earnings ESP of +25.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TECK’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 53 cents per share, suggesting a 60.6% climb from the year-ago quarter. The estimate has moved up 43.2% over the past 60 days. The company has an average positive earnings surprise of 50.3% in the trailing four quarters.
Copper production rose 9.9% year over year to 134.1 thousand tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Increased output at Highland Valley (up 37%), Antamina (up 25%) and Carmen de Andacollo (up 15%) was offset by an 8.7% decline at Quebrada Blanca. However, copper sales were down 5.1% to 118.6 thousand tons in the quarter.
Zinc production declined 26% year over year to 108.6 thousand tons. Production at Antamina was up 19%, while Red Dog’s zinc output was down 32%. TECK sold 157.2 thousand tons of zinc in the quarter, which was down 22.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. Refined zinc production at Trail Operations increased 9.7% year over year to 68.1 thousand tons but sales were down 2.6% to 59.4 thousand tons.
Lower sales volumes for copper and zinc are expected to have been offset by higher prices in the quarter. Also, TECK had stated earlier that it expects to report positive settlement pricing adjustments of $295 million in the fourth quarter owing to the increase in base metals prices.
Lundin Mining has an Earnings ESP of +11.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lundin Mining’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is 30 cents per share, indicating a 150% year-over-year increase. The estimate has moved up 36.4% over the past 60 days. LUNMF has an average negative earnings surprise of 1.7% in the trailing four quarters.
LUNMF’s copper production in the quarter was down 14% year over year to 87,032 tons. Higher production at Caserones and Eagle were offset by lower output at Candelaria and Chapada. Gold output was down 27% to 34,129 ounces due to declines at Candelaria and Chapada.
Lower production and consequently lower sales volumes are expected to have been negated by higher prices for copper and gold as well as lower costs at Caserones, Chapada, and Eagle.
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4 Mining Stocks Likely to Outperform Earnings Estimates in Q4
Commodity markets provided a supportive backdrop for non-ferrous miners during the fourth quarter of 2025, with strength across both precious metals and copper. The mining stocks fall within the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector, which is shaping up favorably this earnings season. Per the latest Earnings Trends report, it is among 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors, which are expected to deliver year-over-year growth in earnings in the quarter. Sector earnings are projected to increase 2.8%, driven by a 9.5% rise in revenues, as higher realized commodity prices acted as a key tailwind.
Against this favorable backdrop, we have identified four mining companies HudBay Minerals (HBM - Free Report) , Lundin Mining (LUNMF - Free Report) , First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF - Free Report) and Teck Resources (TECK - Free Report) , that appear poised to beat earnings estimates this season and are also likely to deliver improved year-over-year results.
How Have Things Shaped Up for These Companies?
Price movements across key non-ferrous metals during the October–December 2025 period remained favorable, providing meaningful support to miners’ top lines. Gold and silver particularly delivered standout performances in the fourth quarter.
Gold touched a high of $4,557 an ounce in the quarter, with average prices soaring 55% year over year to a record $4,135 per ounce. Safe-haven demand as well as central-bank purchases supported prices. Notably, quarterly gold demand reached 1,303 tons, the highest ever for a fourth quarter. This was driven by robust ETF inflows (175 tons) and a 12-year high in bar and coin demand.
Silver prices also strengthened materially, hitting a quarterly high of $82.67 per ounce, with average prices up 74% year over year. Ongoing supply deficits, steady industrial demand and safe-haven interest continued to support prices.
Copper prices ranged from $4.80 per pound to a high of $5.89 in the fourth quarter. Average prices were $5.21, which were 22% higher than the last year quarter. Steady demand from electrification, renewable energy projects and grid infrastructure spending, amid supply concerns, continued to fuel prices.
Among other base metals, zinc prices trended higher through the quarter, supported by improving industrial activity and tightening inventories toward quarter-end. Nickel prices, while pressured earlier by oversupply from Indonesia (the world’s largest producer), rebounded later in the quarter on reports that Indonesia plans to curb its supply in 2026.
These favorable commodity price dynamics are expected to have bolstered revenues for diversified miners such as HudBay Minerals, Lundin Mining, First Quantum Minerals and Teck Resources, given their significant exposure to copper and base metals.
However, the operating environment remained challenging for miners. Higher input costs are likely to have somewhat offset the gains from higher prices on their margins in the fourth quarter. Miners have been focused on improving throughput, portfolio optimization and on higher-grade ore bodies to cushion the cost impact.
How to Pick Earnings Estimates Beating Stocks?
Identifying stocks that are poised to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases might seem a daunting task. However, our proprietary Zacks methodology makes it fairly simple.
One can pick stocks, which have the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Our research shows that for stocks with this combination, the chance of an earnings surprise is as much as 70%.
Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for determining stocks that have the best chances to surprise with their next earnings announcement. It is the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
4 Potential Outperformers This Season
HudBay Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +0.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 20.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM’s fourth-quarter earnings has moved up 36.7% over the past 60 days and is pegged at 41 cents per share. It indicates a 127.8% increase from the year-ago quarter. The company has an average earnings surprise of 40.7% in the trailing four quarters.
HudBay Minerals Inc Price and Consensus
HudBay Minerals Inc price-consensus-chart | HudBay Minerals Inc Quote
During the fourth quarter of 2025, Hudbay produced approximately 33,069 tons of copper, 84,298 ounces of gold, 1 million ounces of silver, 5,703 tons of zinc and 325 tons of molybdenum. Compared with the prior-year quarter, copper output was down 24%, gold was down 10%, zinc was down 32% and silver was down 24%. Molybdenum production was up 67%.
Notably, output was down across all operations, Peru, Manitoba, British Columbia. Lower volumes are expected to have been more than offset by significantly higher metal prices. Moreover, HudBay’s industry-leading cost performance is likely to have supported margins in the fourth quarter.
First Quantum Minerals has an Earnings ESP of +26.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Quantum’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at seven cents per share, indicating a 75% increase from the year-ago quarter. The estimate has moved up 40% over the past 60 days. FQVLF has an average earnings surprise of 47.2% in the trailing four quarters.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. Price and Consensus
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. price-consensus-chart | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. Quote
First Quantum produced 101 thousand tons of copper in the fourth quarter, down 10% compared with the year-ago quarter. The Trident – Sentinel operations saw a 16% drop in production while Kansanshi delivered in-line results. Gold output was around 37,000 ounces, down 5% as higher output at Kansanshi was offset by weaker results at Guelb Moghrein. Nickel production soared 125% year over year to around 9,000 tons, driven by increased production at Trident – Enterprise.
The company sold 108 thousand tons of copper, marking a 4% decline. The impact of lower sales volumes on First Quantum’s revenues is expected to have been offset by higher prices in the quarter.
Teck Resources has an Earnings ESP of +25.77% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 19.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TECK’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 53 cents per share, suggesting a 60.6% climb from the year-ago quarter. The estimate has moved up 43.2% over the past 60 days. The company has an average positive earnings surprise of 50.3% in the trailing four quarters.
Teck Resources Ltd Price and Consensus
Teck Resources Ltd price-consensus-chart | Teck Resources Ltd Quote
Copper production rose 9.9% year over year to 134.1 thousand tons in the fourth quarter of 2025. Increased output at Highland Valley (up 37%), Antamina (up 25%) and Carmen de Andacollo (up 15%) was offset by an 8.7% decline at Quebrada Blanca. However, copper sales were down 5.1% to 118.6 thousand tons in the quarter.
Zinc production declined 26% year over year to 108.6 thousand tons. Production at Antamina was up 19%, while Red Dog’s zinc output was down 32%. TECK sold 157.2 thousand tons of zinc in the quarter, which was down 22.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. Refined zinc production at Trail Operations increased 9.7% year over year to 68.1 thousand tons but sales were down 2.6% to 59.4 thousand tons.
Lower sales volumes for copper and zinc are expected to have been offset by higher prices in the quarter. Also, TECK had stated earlier that it expects to report positive settlement pricing adjustments of $295 million in the fourth quarter owing to the increase in base metals prices.
Lundin Mining has an Earnings ESP of +11.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 18.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lundin Mining’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is 30 cents per share, indicating a 150% year-over-year increase. The estimate has moved up 36.4% over the past 60 days. LUNMF has an average negative earnings surprise of 1.7% in the trailing four quarters.
Lundin Mining Corp. Price and Consensus
Lundin Mining Corp. price-consensus-chart | Lundin Mining Corp. Quote
LUNMF’s copper production in the quarter was down 14% year over year to 87,032 tons. Higher production at Caserones and Eagle were offset by lower output at Candelaria and Chapada. Gold output was down 27% to 34,129 ounces due to declines at Candelaria and Chapada.
Lower production and consequently lower sales volumes are expected to have been negated by higher prices for copper and gold as well as lower costs at Caserones, Chapada, and Eagle.