We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Will Declining Medical Membership Affect Humana's Q4 Earnings?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
HUM is expected to post a sharp year-over-year earnings decline in Q4 despite revenue growth of 9.2%.
Humana's premium and service revenues are rising, but insurance and investment income are declining.
HUM's medical membership is projected to drop 7.6% year over year, while the benefits expense ratio worsens.
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026, before the opening bell. For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a loss of $4.01 per share on revenues of $31.9 billion.
The consensus estimate for the fourth-quarter loss has widened by a penny over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 85.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s revenues is pegged at $128.9 billion, implying a rise of 10% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $17.07, implying a gain of around 5.3% on a year-over-year basis.
HUM’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 7.5%.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Humana currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s fourth-quarter premiums indicates an 8.9% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 7.4% growth. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues signals a 22.2% increase from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the CenterWell unit indicates 6.4% growth from a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for specialty membership is expected to witness nearly 2.1% growth in the quarter under review. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the Insurance unit predicts a 9.7% decrease from the year-ago level.
Furthermore, the consensus estimate indicates that Humana’s investment income will see an 8.2% drop from the year-ago level. We expect total operating costs to increase 7% in the fourth quarter, pushing the figure above $31.8 billion. This is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line.
The consensus mark for the overall benefits expense ratio is pegged at 93.26% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 91.5% a year ago. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for medical membership suggests a 7.6% year-over-year decline.
How Did Peers Perform?
Several healthcare companies, including The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) , UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) , have already reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:
Cigna reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $8.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 22% year over year. The results benefited on the back of strong results from its Evernorth Health Services segment, driven by new business and client relationship expansion, Pharmacy Benefit Services’ strength and improved specialty volumes. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Cigna’s medical customers following divestitures to Health Care Services Corporation and an elevated expense level.
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09. However, the bottom line fell 69% from the year-ago period. The earnings were aided by growth in commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, UnitedHealth’s elevated medical costs and declining risk-based membership partially offset the positives.
Elevance reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3%. The bottom line rose 3.1% year over year. The earnings benefited on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.
See More Zacks Research for These Tickers
Normally $25 each - click below to receive one report FREE:
Image: Bigstock
Will Declining Medical Membership Affect Humana's Q4 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Humana Inc. (HUM - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, 2026, before the opening bell. For the to-be-reported quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a loss of $4.01 per share on revenues of $31.9 billion.
The consensus estimate for the fourth-quarter loss has widened by a penny over the past 60 days. However, the bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year decrease of 85.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 9.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Humana’s revenues is pegged at $128.9 billion, implying a rise of 10% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at $17.07, implying a gain of around 5.3% on a year-over-year basis.
HUM’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 7.5%.
Humana Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Humana Inc. price-eps-surprise | Humana Inc. Quote
Q4 Earnings Whispers for HUM
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.
Humana currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping HUM’s Q4 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HUM’s fourth-quarter premiums indicates an 8.9% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure, whereas our model predicts 7.4% growth. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues signals a 22.2% increase from a year ago.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the CenterWell unit indicates 6.4% growth from a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for specialty membership is expected to witness nearly 2.1% growth in the quarter under review.
However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the Insurance unit predicts a 9.7% decrease from the year-ago level.
Furthermore, the consensus estimate indicates that Humana’s investment income will see an 8.2% drop from the year-ago level. We expect total operating costs to increase 7% in the fourth quarter, pushing the figure above $31.8 billion. This is likely to have led to a year-over-year decline in the bottom line.
The consensus mark for the overall benefits expense ratio is pegged at 93.26% for the to-be-reported quarter, deteriorating from 91.5% a year ago. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for medical membership suggests a 7.6% year-over-year decline.
How Did Peers Perform?
Several healthcare companies, including The Cigna Group (CI - Free Report) , UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) and Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV - Free Report) , have already reported their financial results for the December quarter of 2025. Here’s how they had performed:
Cigna reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $8.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%. The bottom line advanced 22% year over year. The results benefited on the back of strong results from its Evernorth Health Services segment, driven by new business and client relationship expansion, Pharmacy Benefit Services’ strength and improved specialty volumes. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Cigna’s medical customers following divestitures to Health Care Services Corporation and an elevated expense level.
UnitedHealth reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.11, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09. However, the bottom line fell 69% from the year-ago period. The earnings were aided by growth in commercial fee-based membership and the strength witnessed in Optum Rx. However, UnitedHealth’s elevated medical costs and declining risk-based membership partially offset the positives.
Elevance reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.33, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.3%. The bottom line rose 3.1% year over year. The earnings benefited on the back of strong growth in premiums. Segment-wise, the Carelon division posted a robust revenue surge, aided by buyout and scaling risk-based services, while Health Benefits saw increased premium yields and Medicare Advantage membership growth. However, the upside was partly offset by a decline in Elevance’s overall medical membership and an elevated expense level.