We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
This includes personalizing content and advertising.
By pressing "Accept All" or closing out of this banner, you consent to the use of all cookies and similar technologies and the sharing of information they collect with third parties.
You can reject marketing cookies by pressing "Deny Optional," but we still use essential, performance, and functional cookies.
In addition, whether you "Accept All," Deny Optional," click the X or otherwise continue to use the site, you accept our Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, revised from time to time.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
Boston Beer's Q4 Results: Is an Earnings Surprise in the Cards?
Read MoreHide Full Article
Key Takeaways
Boston Beer is expected to post Y/Y declines in Q4 revenues and a wider loss per share.
Softer volumes, inventory reductions and hard seltzer declines are set to pressure SAM's Q4 results.
SAM is leaning on pricing, innovation and Beyond Beer growth to offset inflation and industry headwinds.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM - Free Report) is expected to post year-over-year declines in both revenues and earnings when it reports fourth-quarter 2025results on Feb. 24.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $384.5 million, indicating a 4.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share is pegged at $2.33, reflecting a widening compared with the loss of $1.68 reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for loss per share has remained unchanged in the past 30 days.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 12.4%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 42.9%, on average.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped SAM’s Q4 Results
Boston Beer’s fourth-quarter earnings are expected to face pressure due to a mix of seasonal and business-related challenges discussed on the last reported quarter’s earnings call. Management explained that the fourth quarter is usually the company’s weakest period, with the lowest revenues and profit margins of the year. This pattern has become more noticeable as the company now relies more on summer-focused brands such as Truly, Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser, which naturally sell less in colder months.
SAM is also expected to have witnessed headwinds from brand-specific and macroeconomic challenges in the fourth quarter. The hard seltzer category continues to decline, with Truly facing sustained pressure from shifting consumer preferences toward spirits-based RTDs and higher-ABV offerings. Twisted Tea, despite its strong brand equity, has seen notable weakness in larger pack formats as inflation and affordability concerns disproportionately impact its more value-conscious consumer base, including Hispanic shoppers.
Management also pointed to broader industry headwinds such as reduced discretionary spending, moderation trends, health-related concerns around alcohol consumption and incremental competition from hemp-derived beverages in certain states. These factors are likely to have pressured depletions, sales mix and operating leverage in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Boston Beer’s focus on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position and drive performance bodes well. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. Strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings are helping offset the inflationary pressures.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Valuation Picture of SAM Stock
From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 20.12X, above the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 16.89X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.
SAM Stock's P/E Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Boston Beer shares have shown an upward trend, gaining 20% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 23.3%.
SAM Stock's Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are three companies, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle:
Monster Beverage (MNST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.31% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 49 cents, indicating a 29% rise from the year-ago period’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, which indicates growth of 13% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. MNST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ fourth-quarter 2025 EPS is pegged at 19 cents, which implies a 35.7% increase year over year.
The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $638.2 million, which indicates a surge of 92.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 42.9%, on average.
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX - Free Report) , or FEMSA, currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $12.4 billion, which indicates a jump of 24.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FEMSA’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.53 implies growth of 232.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FMX delivered a negative earnings surprise in the trailing three quarters.
Zacks' 7 Best Strong Buy Stocks (New Research Report)
Valued at $99, click below to receive our just-released report
predicting the 7 stocks that will soar highest in the coming month.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Boston Beer's Q4 Results: Is an Earnings Surprise in the Cards?
Key Takeaways
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM - Free Report) is expected to post year-over-year declines in both revenues and earnings when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 24.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $384.5 million, indicating a 4.4% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share is pegged at $2.33, reflecting a widening compared with the loss of $1.68 reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for loss per share has remained unchanged in the past 30 days.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Quote
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 12.4%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 42.9%, on average.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped SAM’s Q4 Results
Boston Beer’s fourth-quarter earnings are expected to face pressure due to a mix of seasonal and business-related challenges discussed on the last reported quarter’s earnings call. Management explained that the fourth quarter is usually the company’s weakest period, with the lowest revenues and profit margins of the year. This pattern has become more noticeable as the company now relies more on summer-focused brands such as Truly, Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser, which naturally sell less in colder months.
SAM is also expected to have witnessed headwinds from brand-specific and macroeconomic challenges in the fourth quarter. The hard seltzer category continues to decline, with Truly facing sustained pressure from shifting consumer preferences toward spirits-based RTDs and higher-ABV offerings. Twisted Tea, despite its strong brand equity, has seen notable weakness in larger pack formats as inflation and affordability concerns disproportionately impact its more value-conscious consumer base, including Hispanic shoppers.
Management also pointed to broader industry headwinds such as reduced discretionary spending, moderation trends, health-related concerns around alcohol consumption and incremental competition from hemp-derived beverages in certain states. These factors are likely to have pressured depletions, sales mix and operating leverage in the to-be-reported quarter.
However, Boston Beer’s focus on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position and drive performance bodes well. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. Strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings are helping offset the inflationary pressures.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Valuation Picture of SAM Stock
From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 20.12X, above the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 16.89X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.
SAM Stock's P/E Valuation
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Boston Beer shares have shown an upward trend, gaining 20% in the past three months compared with the industry’s growth of 23.3%.
SAM Stock's Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are three companies, which, per our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle:
Monster Beverage (MNST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.31% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 49 cents, indicating a 29% rise from the year-ago period’s reported number.
The consensus estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.1 billion, which indicates growth of 13% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. MNST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.5%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.46% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ fourth-quarter 2025 EPS is pegged at 19 cents, which implies a 35.7% increase year over year.
The consensus estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $638.2 million, which indicates a surge of 92.1% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CELH delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 42.9%, on average.
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX - Free Report) , or FEMSA, currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.92% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $12.4 billion, which indicates a jump of 24.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FEMSA’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.53 implies growth of 232.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. FMX delivered a negative earnings surprise in the trailing three quarters.