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CF (CF) Up 26.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 26.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries’ Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.59 per share, up from $1.89 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at $2.99 per share. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50.
Net sales rose around 22.8% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.79 billion.
In the fourth quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower granular urea and ammonium nitrate sales.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 23.8% to $708 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $524.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 6.9% year over year to $372 million, missing our estimate of $402.8 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 51.6% year over year to $564 million, beating our estimate of $531.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment declined around 19.8% year over year to $81 million, missing our estimate of $100.9 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in 2025 from a year ago period, mainly due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by costs related to the incident in November 2025 at CF’s Yazoo City Complex and higher realized natural gas costs.
Financials
As of Dec. 31, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.98 billion, up 22.8% year over year. Long-term debt was around $3.22 billion, up 8.2% year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the reported quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year.
Outlook
Per CF, the global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories remain below historical averages. CF sees high planted acres of corn in the United States in 2026. Supply constraints from disrupted Russian exports due to the ongoing conflict, and gas shortages in Trinidad and Iran, are affecting production. Chinese urea exports remain seasonal. North American ammonia supply is expected to be healthy. High natural gas costs curb margins; however, demand for low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen is expected to rise to build a low-carbon nitrogen supply chain.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted 10.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, CF has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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CF (CF) Up 26.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CF Industries (CF - Free Report) . Shares have added about 26.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CF due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
CF Industries’ Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat Estimates on Higher Prices
CF Industries reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.59 per share, up from $1.89 in the year-ago quarter.
Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings came in at $2.99 per share. The figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.50.
Net sales rose around 22.8% year over year to roughly $1.87 billion in the quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.79 billion.
In the fourth quarter, average selling prices increased from the same period in 2024, driven by strong global nitrogen demand and supply disruptions due to geopolitical issues. However, sales volumes were lower year over year, mainly due to lower granular urea and ammonium nitrate sales.
Segment Review
Net sales in the Ammonia segment increased 23.8% to $708 million in the reported quarter, beating our estimate of $524.2 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for ammonia rose in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly due to higher average selling prices and reduced maintenance costs, though this was partly offset by increased realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the Granular Urea segment rose 6.9% year over year to $372 million, missing our estimate of $402.8 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for granular urea increased in 2025 from the year-ago period, mainly driven by higher average selling prices, though partly offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the UAN segment rose around 51.6% year over year to $564 million, beating our estimate of $531.7 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for UAN increased in 2025 compared with that of the previous year, mainly due to higher average selling prices, partially offset by higher realized natural gas costs.
Sales in the AN segment declined around 19.8% year over year to $81 million, missing our estimate of $100.9 million. The adjusted gross margin per ton for AN rose in 2025 from a year ago period, mainly due to increased average selling prices, though this was partly offset by costs related to the incident in November 2025 at CF’s Yazoo City Complex and higher realized natural gas costs.
Financials
As of Dec. 31, 2025, CF Industries’ cash and cash equivalents were $1.98 billion, up 22.8% year over year. Long-term debt was around $3.22 billion, up 8.2% year over year.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $539 million in the reported quarter, up nearly 28.3% year over year.
Outlook
Per CF, the global nitrogen outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by strong demand and tight supply. India and Brazil will remain the world’s largest importers of urea, driving robust consumption, while inventories remain below historical averages. CF sees high planted acres of corn in the United States in 2026. Supply constraints from disrupted Russian exports due to the ongoing conflict, and gas shortages in Trinidad and Iran, are affecting production. Chinese urea exports remain seasonal. North American ammonia supply is expected to be healthy. High natural gas costs curb margins; however, demand for low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen is expected to rise to build a low-carbon nitrogen supply chain.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted 10.44% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, CF has a average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, CF has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.