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UUUU vs. MP: Which Critical Minerals Stock is a Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
MP Materials emerges as a stronger pick due to valuation and a clearer profitability outlook in 2026.
MP doubled NdPr output to 2,599 MTs and secured major deals, including Apple supply and DoW partnership.
Energy Fuels expands uranium and REE capacity but saw 2025 revenue drop and wider net loss.
Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) and MP Materials (MP - Free Report) are two US-based companies poised to play key roles in America’s efforts to build a secure domestic supply chain for rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals.
Lakewood, CO- based Energy Fuels, with a market capitalization of $4.3 billion, is a leading uranium producer. It owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium processing facility in the United States. In addition to uranium, the mill has been repurposed to produce advanced rare earth element products, expanding Energy Fuels’ exposure to critical minerals.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere with a market capitalization of $9.5 billion. It operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America.
REEs being critical inputs across many existing and emerging clean-tech applications, their demand is expected to increase manifold. For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for UUUU and MP.
The Case for Energy Fuels
Energy Fuels has produced nearly two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017 and continues to scale production as well as develop REE capabilities, backed by its debt-free balance sheet.
Energy Fuels mined material containing roughly 1.72 million pounds of uranium from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora mines in 2025, exceeding the guidance range of 0.875-1.44 million pounds. The company expects to mine 2-2.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026, and process between 1.5 million and 2.5 million pounds of finished uranium. The company plans to sell 1.5-2 million pounds of uranium in 2026 under existing contracts and spot market sales.
Energy Fuels’ fiscal 2025 revenues were $65.9 million, down 16% year over year. This was primarily due to a 60% decline in HMS sales in 2025 as a result of fewer product sales following the completion of mining activities at Kwale and the reclamation advanced. The company reported a net loss per share of 38 cents in 2025 compared with a loss of 28 cents per share in 2024.
Energy Fuels’ unit economics are improving as finished inventory costs fell to $43 per pound at year-end 2025 and are projected to fall into the low $30 range during 2026. At Pinyon Plain, cash costs are currently between $23 and $30 per pound, with higher-grade ore expected to further reduce costs as processing ramps up. This is expected to boost its margins.
The company has six uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities covering deliveries from 2026 to 2032, with 3.21 million pounds of committed base sales and potential total deliveries ranging from 3.71 million to 5.29 million pounds, depending on customer options. Existing inventories, purchases and new production will be sufficient to meet contract requirements through 2026 and over the life of the supply contracts. The company also plans to make discretionary spot sales in 2026 and beyond, to capitalize on any pickup in uranium prices.
Energy Fuels’ near-term growth is supported by standby projects like Nichols Ranch ISR and Whirlwind, which could collectively add up to 500,000 pounds of annual uranium output within six–12 months of a “go” decision. Large-scale projects, including Roca Honda, Sheep Mountain and Henry Mountains–Bullfrog, hold nearly 70 million pounds of uranium resources, with the potential to deliver up to 6 million pounds of annual production, underpinning significant future supply growth.
The company, meanwhile, is developing significant REE capabilities. In December, the 99.9% purity dysprosium oxide produced at its White Mesa Mill passed the stringent quality check requirements of a major South Korean permanent magnet manufacturer. This follows the earlier qualification of its Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide for use in NdFeB magnet applications.
Energy Fuels is planning a Phase 2 expansion of REE processing at White Mesa, increasing NdPr oxide capacity from roughly 1,000 tons per year to more than 6,000 tons annually. With an estimated capital cost of $410 million and projected all-in production costs of $29.39/kg NdPr equivalent, the company expects its REE operations to rank among the lowest-cost producers globally. Energy Fuels has also inked a deal to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, a leading producer of REE (rare earth element) metals and alloys. Expected to close in the first half of this year, the deal will help create the largest, fully integrated REE "mine-to-metal and alloy" producer outside of China.
The Case for MP Materials
The company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America.
2025 was a pivotal year for MP Materials, highlighted by a long-term agreement to supply US-made recycled rare earth magnets to Apple and a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War to accelerate a fully integrated domestic magnet supply chain. Backed by government incentives, the company will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons and serve defense and commercial markets. MP also expects to extend the lifespan of Mountain Pass through further exploration and enhanced processing.
The company was awarded a $200 million incentive package, anchored by the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund (“TSIF”) grant, for the new facility. MP Materials has doubled its NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) oxide production at Mountain Pass to a record 2,599 MTs in 2025. The company also produced a record 50,692 MTs of REO in concentrate, a 12% increase year over year. It also produced its first magnets on commercial-scale equipment at the Independence facility.
The company also signed a significant long-term NdPr offtake agreement with a new customer, one of America's leading technology and industrial companies. It has direct strategic agreements with four of the world's leading manufacturers across automotive, consumer electronics and physical AI.
MP Material’s revenues increased 10% year over year to $224.4 million in 2025 on higher NdPr oxide and metal revenues as well as revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products, with no comparable revenues in the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share in 2025 were a loss of 24 cents, an improvement from the loss of 44 cents in 2024. This was driven by the NdPr price floor protection agreement with the DoW, which commenced on Oct. 1, 2025, as well as the commencement of magnetic precursor product sales. This was somewhat offset by higher legal costs, as well as increased advanced projects and development expenses, which included transaction costs associated with the DoW agreements and securing financing.
How do Estimates Compare for UUUU & MP?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ fiscal 2026 earnings is a loss of six cents per share compared to the 38 cents per share loss in 2025. The 2027 estimate is earnings of 13 cents per share.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at earnings of 35 cents per share, compared to the loss of 24 cents reported in fiscal 2025. The estimate for fiscal 2027 for MP Materials is pegged at earnings of $1.13 per share, indicating 221% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimates for Energy Fuels for 2026 have been revised upward, while the same for 2027 have remained unchanged over the past 60 days. The earnings estimates for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have moved down over the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP & UUUU: Price Performance & Valuation
Energy Fuels stock has gained 314.9% in the past year compared with MP Materials’ 101.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 24.11X. Meanwhile, MP Materials is trading lower at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 18.30X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels or MP Materials: Which Stock is the Better Pick?
MP Materials continues to deliver strong production growth while advancing its vertical integration strategy. Its position as the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States, combined with strategic partnerships and government backing, supports its long-term growth outlook. Energy Fuels, on the other hand, offers a diversified play on both uranium and rare earths, providing exposure to two critical and fast-growing markets.
Both stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so choosing one seems difficult. While Energy Fuels stands out in terms of stock performance, MP Materials’ more attractive valuation and clearer path to profitability in 2026 give it an edge at present.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
UUUU vs. MP: Which Critical Minerals Stock is a Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
Energy Fuels (UUUU - Free Report) and MP Materials (MP - Free Report) are two US-based companies poised to play key roles in America’s efforts to build a secure domestic supply chain for rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals.
Lakewood, CO- based Energy Fuels, with a market capitalization of $4.3 billion, is a leading uranium producer. It owns the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium processing facility in the United States. In addition to uranium, the mill has been repurposed to produce advanced rare earth element products, expanding Energy Fuels’ exposure to critical minerals.
Las Vegas, NV-based MP Materials is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere with a market capitalization of $9.5 billion. It operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site of scale in North America.
REEs being critical inputs across many existing and emerging clean-tech applications, their demand is expected to increase manifold. For investors seeking to capitalize on this growth, the question is which stock they should put their bets on. To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges for UUUU and MP.
The Case for Energy Fuels
Energy Fuels has produced nearly two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017 and continues to scale production as well as develop REE capabilities, backed by its debt-free balance sheet.
Energy Fuels mined material containing roughly 1.72 million pounds of uranium from the Pinyon Plain, La Sal and Pandora mines in 2025, exceeding the guidance range of 0.875-1.44 million pounds. The company expects to mine 2-2.5 million pounds of uranium in 2026, and process between 1.5 million and 2.5 million pounds of finished uranium. The company plans to sell 1.5-2 million pounds of uranium in 2026 under existing contracts and spot market sales.
Energy Fuels’ fiscal 2025 revenues were $65.9 million, down 16% year over year. This was primarily due to a 60% decline in HMS sales in 2025 as a result of fewer product sales following the completion of mining activities at Kwale and the reclamation advanced. The company reported a net loss per share of 38 cents in 2025 compared with a loss of 28 cents per share in 2024.
Energy Fuels’ unit economics are improving as finished inventory costs fell to $43 per pound at year-end 2025 and are projected to fall into the low $30 range during 2026. At Pinyon Plain, cash costs are currently between $23 and $30 per pound, with higher-grade ore expected to further reduce costs as processing ramps up. This is expected to boost its margins.
The company has six uranium supply contracts with U.S. nuclear utilities covering deliveries from 2026 to 2032, with 3.21 million pounds of committed base sales and potential total deliveries ranging from 3.71 million to 5.29 million pounds, depending on customer options. Existing inventories, purchases and new production will be sufficient to meet contract requirements through 2026 and over the life of the supply contracts. The company also plans to make discretionary spot sales in 2026 and beyond, to capitalize on any pickup in uranium prices.
Energy Fuels’ near-term growth is supported by standby projects like Nichols Ranch ISR and Whirlwind, which could collectively add up to 500,000 pounds of annual uranium output within six–12 months of a “go” decision. Large-scale projects, including Roca Honda, Sheep Mountain and Henry Mountains–Bullfrog, hold nearly 70 million pounds of uranium resources, with the potential to deliver up to 6 million pounds of annual production, underpinning significant future supply growth.
The company, meanwhile, is developing significant REE capabilities. In December, the 99.9% purity dysprosium oxide produced at its White Mesa Mill passed the stringent quality check requirements of a major South Korean permanent magnet manufacturer. This follows the earlier qualification of its Neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) oxide for use in NdFeB magnet applications.
Energy Fuels is planning a Phase 2 expansion of REE processing at White Mesa, increasing NdPr oxide capacity from roughly 1,000 tons per year to more than 6,000 tons annually. With an estimated capital cost of $410 million and projected all-in production costs of $29.39/kg NdPr equivalent, the company expects its REE operations to rank among the lowest-cost producers globally. Energy Fuels has also inked a deal to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, a leading producer of REE (rare earth element) metals and alloys. Expected to close in the first half of this year, the deal will help create the largest, fully integrated REE "mine-to-metal and alloy" producer outside of China.
The Case for MP Materials
The company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America.
2025 was a pivotal year for MP Materials, highlighted by a long-term agreement to supply US-made recycled rare earth magnets to Apple and a public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War to accelerate a fully integrated domestic magnet supply chain. Backed by government incentives, the company will construct the second domestic magnet manufacturing facility (the 10X Facility) in Northlake, TX, which will lift U.S. magnet capacity to 10,000 metric tons and serve defense and commercial markets. MP also expects to extend the lifespan of Mountain Pass through further exploration and enhanced processing.
The company was awarded a $200 million incentive package, anchored by the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund (“TSIF”) grant, for the new facility.
MP Materials has doubled its NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) oxide production at Mountain Pass to a record 2,599 MTs in 2025. The company also produced a record 50,692 MTs of REO in concentrate, a 12% increase year over year. It also produced its first magnets on commercial-scale equipment at the Independence facility.
The company also signed a significant long-term NdPr offtake agreement with a new customer, one of America's leading technology and industrial companies. It has direct strategic agreements with four of the world's leading manufacturers across automotive, consumer electronics and physical AI.
MP Material’s revenues increased 10% year over year to $224.4 million in 2025 on higher NdPr oxide and metal revenues as well as revenues from the sales of magnetic precursor products, with no comparable revenues in the prior year. Adjusted earnings per share in 2025 were a loss of 24 cents, an improvement from the loss of 44 cents in 2024. This was driven by the NdPr price floor protection agreement with the DoW, which commenced on Oct. 1, 2025, as well as the commencement of magnetic precursor product sales. This was somewhat offset by higher legal costs, as well as increased advanced projects and development expenses, which included transaction costs associated with the DoW agreements and securing financing.
How do Estimates Compare for UUUU & MP?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuels’ fiscal 2026 earnings is a loss of six cents per share compared to the 38 cents per share loss in 2025. The 2027 estimate is earnings of 13 cents per share.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials’ fiscal 2026 earnings is pegged at earnings of 35 cents per share, compared to the loss of 24 cents reported in fiscal 2025. The estimate for fiscal 2027 for MP Materials is pegged at earnings of $1.13 per share, indicating 221% year-over-year growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The estimates for Energy Fuels for 2026 have been revised upward, while the same for 2027 have remained unchanged over the past 60 days. The earnings estimates for MP Materials for both 2026 and 2027 have moved down over the past 60 days. This is shown in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
MP & UUUU: Price Performance & Valuation
Energy Fuels stock has gained 314.9% in the past year compared with MP Materials’ 101.3% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 24.11X. Meanwhile, MP Materials is trading lower at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 18.30X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Energy Fuels or MP Materials: Which Stock is the Better Pick?
MP Materials continues to deliver strong production growth while advancing its vertical integration strategy. Its position as the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States, combined with strategic partnerships and government backing, supports its long-term growth outlook.
Energy Fuels, on the other hand, offers a diversified play on both uranium and rare earths, providing exposure to two critical and fast-growing markets.
Both stocks currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so choosing one seems difficult. While Energy Fuels stands out in terms of stock performance, MP Materials’ more attractive valuation and clearer path to profitability in 2026 give it an edge at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.