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CENX vs. AA: Which Aluminum Stock is the Better Pick Now?
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Key Takeaways
CENX benefits from strong demand, higher premiums and expansion projects to boost capacity and profitability.
Alcoa gains from tariffs and supply disruptions but rising costs and debt weigh on margins.
CENX forecasts 29.4% sales growth and over 100% EPS growth for 2026 with rising estimates.
Century Aluminum Company (CENX - Free Report) and Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) are two well-known names operating in the in the aluminum space with global operations and diversified portfolios. With aluminum prices staying elevated amid global economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, comparing these two industry players becomes especially important for investors looking to gain exposure to the aluminum sector.
Rising demand for lightweight, energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled materials and rechargeable batteries has strengthened aluminum’s appeal as an investment. Also, consumption of this metal has increased as industries push toward more sustainability and efficiency. Also, the rebound in air travel has prompted higher aircraft production, boosting demand for aluminum alloys used in fuselages and wings.
But which stock offers the better investment opportunity today? Let’s examine their fundamentals, growth outlook and key challenges to arrive at a well-informed decision.
The Case for CENX
Century Aluminum is benefiting from strong global demand for aluminum, supported by improving industrial activity and steady consumption across key end markets. Aluminum prices are influenced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) along with regional premiums, which have remained supportive for producers. Higher regional premiums and favorable market dynamics are likely to aid Century Aluminum’s pricing and profitability.
CENX operates primary aluminum smelters in the United States and Iceland, with a combined annual production capacity of approximately 770,000 tons. In 2025, Century Aluminum produced approximately 638,000 tons of primary aluminum, with operations at facilities including Grundartangi in Iceland, Sebree in Kentucky and Mt. Holly in South Carolina. The company is currently working to restore curtailed capacity at the Mt. Holly smelter, with plans to return the facility to full production by mid-2026. In October 2025, CENX finalized an extended power service agreement with Santee Cooper for the Mt. Holly smelter, securing an electricity supply through 2031. This should further enhance the company’s production capacity.
Century Aluminum also owns a 55% stake in the Jamalco bauxite mining and alumina refining joint venture in Jamaica, which helps ensure a steady supply of alumina, a key raw material for aluminum production. Also, in January 2026, CENX inked a joint development deal with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new aluminum smelter in Oklahoma. This is expected to produce 750,000 tons of aluminum annually, increasing domestic production in the United States.
Century Aluminum is actively implementing several strategies aimed at reducing costs and conserving cash amid challenging market conditions. Through effective management of controllable expenses, the company anticipates bolstering its financial performance in the short term. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $134.2 million. Cash provided by operating activities was $185 million.
The Case for AA
Alcoa is poised to gain from the surge in aluminum prices amid the increased geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane in the Middle East. This has been affecting the overall supply of aluminum in the region, spurring its global price.
With healthy aluminum demand, the tariffs on the metal also gained traction. In June 2025, the U.S. administration increased tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% as a measure to correct trade imbalances and boost the domestic industry. The move has increased aluminum prices, thereby benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa.
An increase in demand in the electrical and packaging markets is driving the company’s Aluminum segment. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil) and Lista (Norway) smelters has increased AA’s overall production capacity. This has led the company to provide a healthy production outlook. For 2026, the Aluminum segment is projected to produce 2.4-2.6 million tons, while shipments are expected to be in the band of 2.6-2.8 million tons.
The Alumina segment is gaining from healthy production and an increase in productivity at its refineries. However, the closure of the company’s Kwinana refinery has been affecting its production and shipment volumes. AA expects alumina production in 2026 to be in the range of 9.7-9.9 million tons, while shipments are anticipated to be 11.8-12.0 million tons.
Alcoa is expected to maintain strong demand momentum going forward, with growing popularity for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries and aluminum alloys for aircraft fuselages and wings.
However, Alcoa has been dealing with the adverse impacts of high operating costs. In 2025, the cost of sales rose 6% year over year. Selling, general and administrative expenses also increased 9% in the year. The increase in operating expenses, if not controlled, might adversely impact the company’s margins in the quarters ahead.
Also, the company’s high debt level remains concerning. AA exited the fourth quarter with a total debt of $2.44 billion. Considering its high debt level, its cash and cash equivalents of $1.6 billion do not look impressive.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CENX & AA
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CENX’s 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies year-over-year growth of 29.4% and more than 100%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates for 2026 have increased over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AA’s 2026 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 10.9% and 56%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates have been trending northward over the past 60 days for 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation
In the past year, Century Aluminum shares have soared 160.8%, while Alcoa stock has gained 87.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Century Aluminum is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 7.13X, below its median of 7.81X over the last five years. Alcoa’s forward earnings multiple sits at 9.82X, below its median of 11.53X over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Take
Century Aluminum is benefiting from robust aluminum demand and favorable pricing trends. The company is ramping up capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter while pursuing growth through a new smelter project in Oklahoma. Strong liquidity and disciplined cost management further support its long-term growth.
In contrast, Alcoa is gaining from higher aluminum prices, strong demand and increased production capacity. The company expects steady growth in its Aluminum and Alumina segments despite some impact from refinery closures. However, rising costs and high debt levels remain key concerns for its profitability.
Given these factors, CENX seems a better pick for investors than AA currently. While Century Aluminum currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), AA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
CENX vs. AA: Which Aluminum Stock is the Better Pick Now?
Key Takeaways
Century Aluminum Company (CENX - Free Report) and Alcoa Corporation (AA - Free Report) are two well-known names operating in the in the aluminum space with global operations and diversified portfolios. With aluminum prices staying elevated amid global economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, comparing these two industry players becomes especially important for investors looking to gain exposure to the aluminum sector.
Rising demand for lightweight, energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled materials and rechargeable batteries has strengthened aluminum’s appeal as an investment. Also, consumption of this metal has increased as industries push toward more sustainability and efficiency. Also, the rebound in air travel has prompted higher aircraft production, boosting demand for aluminum alloys used in fuselages and wings.
But which stock offers the better investment opportunity today? Let’s examine their fundamentals, growth outlook and key challenges to arrive at a well-informed decision.
The Case for CENX
Century Aluminum is benefiting from strong global demand for aluminum, supported by improving industrial activity and steady consumption across key end markets. Aluminum prices are influenced by the London Metal Exchange (LME) along with regional premiums, which have remained supportive for producers. Higher regional premiums and favorable market dynamics are likely to aid Century Aluminum’s pricing and profitability.
CENX operates primary aluminum smelters in the United States and Iceland, with a combined annual production capacity of approximately 770,000 tons. In 2025, Century Aluminum produced approximately 638,000 tons of primary aluminum, with operations at facilities including Grundartangi in Iceland, Sebree in Kentucky and Mt. Holly in South Carolina. The company is currently working to restore curtailed capacity at the Mt. Holly smelter, with plans to return the facility to full production by mid-2026. In October 2025, CENX finalized an extended power service agreement with Santee Cooper for the Mt. Holly smelter, securing an electricity supply through 2031. This should further enhance the company’s production capacity.
Century Aluminum also owns a 55% stake in the Jamalco bauxite mining and alumina refining joint venture in Jamaica, which helps ensure a steady supply of alumina, a key raw material for aluminum production. Also, in January 2026, CENX inked a joint development deal with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a new aluminum smelter in Oklahoma. This is expected to produce 750,000 tons of aluminum annually, increasing domestic production in the United States.
Century Aluminum is actively implementing several strategies aimed at reducing costs and conserving cash amid challenging market conditions. Through effective management of controllable expenses, the company anticipates bolstering its financial performance in the short term. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $134.2 million. Cash provided by operating activities was $185 million.
The Case for AA
Alcoa is poised to gain from the surge in aluminum prices amid the increased geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, which have disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane in the Middle East. This has been affecting the overall supply of aluminum in the region, spurring its global price.
With healthy aluminum demand, the tariffs on the metal also gained traction. In June 2025, the U.S. administration increased tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% as a measure to correct trade imbalances and boost the domestic industry. The move has increased aluminum prices, thereby benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa.
An increase in demand in the electrical and packaging markets is driving the company’s Aluminum segment. Also, the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil) and Lista (Norway) smelters has increased AA’s overall production capacity. This has led the company to provide a healthy production outlook. For 2026, the Aluminum segment is projected to produce 2.4-2.6 million tons, while shipments are expected to be in the band of 2.6-2.8 million tons.
The Alumina segment is gaining from healthy production and an increase in productivity at its refineries. However, the closure of the company’s Kwinana refinery has been affecting its production and shipment volumes. AA expects alumina production in 2026 to be in the range of 9.7-9.9 million tons, while shipments are anticipated to be 11.8-12.0 million tons.
Alcoa is expected to maintain strong demand momentum going forward, with growing popularity for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries and aluminum alloys for aircraft fuselages and wings.
However, Alcoa has been dealing with the adverse impacts of high operating costs. In 2025, the cost of sales rose 6% year over year. Selling, general and administrative expenses also increased 9% in the year. The increase in operating expenses, if not controlled, might adversely impact the company’s margins in the quarters ahead.
Also, the company’s high debt level remains concerning. AA exited the fourth quarter with a total debt of $2.44 billion. Considering its high debt level, its cash and cash equivalents of $1.6 billion do not look impressive.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CENX & AA
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CENX’s 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies year-over-year growth of 29.4% and more than 100%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates for 2026 have increased over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AA’s 2026 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 10.9% and 56%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimates have been trending northward over the past 60 days for 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation
In the past year, Century Aluminum shares have soared 160.8%, while Alcoa stock has gained 87.9%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Century Aluminum is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 7.13X, below its median of 7.81X over the last five years. Alcoa’s forward earnings multiple sits at 9.82X, below its median of 11.53X over the same time frame.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Take
Century Aluminum is benefiting from robust aluminum demand and favorable pricing trends. The company is ramping up capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter while pursuing growth through a new smelter project in Oklahoma. Strong liquidity and disciplined cost management further support its long-term growth.
In contrast, Alcoa is gaining from higher aluminum prices, strong demand and increased production capacity. The company expects steady growth in its Aluminum and Alumina segments despite some impact from refinery closures. However, rising costs and high debt levels remain key concerns for its profitability.
Given these factors, CENX seems a better pick for investors than AA currently. While Century Aluminum currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), AA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.