What happens across this Global Week Ahead?

Financial markets are in a buoyant mood, as U.S. President Trump signals confidence that the war in Iran will end soon, with talks probably in the cards again.

That optimism may be tested — by a batch of macro data — likely to show stuttering business activity and growing price pressures.

Alongside this spring macro data arrives a potentially bruising Congressional grilling — for the Federal Reserve's prospective new chair.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) Where Does the Price of a Barrel of Oil Go? Do Stocks Care?

Iran remains the dominant market risk as the U.S. and Pakistan talk up the prospects for a deal to end the conflict and open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

Stocks, especially in the U.S., had been betting on a happy outcome.

The S&P500, has bounced back to record highs, and, despite worries about Japan's heavy reliance on energy imports, the Nikkei, is also at a record.

Traders were wagering that peace will allow a rerun of the pre-war playbook where strong earnings supported stocks.

Oil markets are less convinced.

Benchmark Brent crude may be below $100 a barrel, but not by much, and it's still 33% above late February levels.

Even more striking, prices of physical crude for delivery are at records.

Should talks fail to open the Strait, energy prices will remain high, forcing central banks to keep borrowing costs elevated and threatening corporate earnings.
 

(2) Fresh Surveys of Spring Business Activity May Be Gloomy

The coming week brings a first look at how companies around the world were coping as the Iran war passed the one-month mark in April.

Surveys for March showed a steep rise in input costs and a slowdown in overall business activity, as firms everywhere grappled with volatile energy markets, disrupted supply chains and a dizzying news cycle.

Even though oil prices ‌have eased, the threat of a global inflation shock has diminished, but not disappeared.

First-quarter earnings, especially in imported energy-dependent Europe, are showing airlines, retailers and manufacturers grappling with deep uncertainty that could weigh on profits.

The United States, a net energy exporter, is relatively insulated but not immune from the effects of higher fuel prices. Investors will look closely at the prices and employment components of the upcoming purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for signs of stress.

Inflation figures from Japan, Britain, New Zealand and Canada are also unlikely to paint a pretty picture.
 

(3) Asian Central Banks, in Particular, Struggle with the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Central banks in emerging Asia will feel the pinch too.

China sets its loan prime rate on April 20th, though analysts see the central bank keeping its benchmark unchanged through the end of the year as the economy regains momentum.

Even if growth is expected to cool as the effects of the Middle East crisis hit corporate profits and overseas demand, Asia's largest economy is still better off than many.

Bank Indonesia, which meets on April 22, must defend a rupiah that has recently fallen to record lows. The central bank governor recently said it needs a recalibration of policy to support financial market stability.

Meanwhile, the Philippines' central bank, which meets on April 23, has warned of 'spillover effects' after inflation accelerated in March and breached policymakers' target range.
 

(4) Turkey’s Central Bank Meets

Turkey's central bank holds one of its most consequential policy meetings on Wednesday, providing a litmus test of its commitment to orthodox monetary policy.

Given its huge dependence on imported energy, the country has been among the hardest hit by the economic blowback of the Iran war.

It burned through nearly $50 billion of its reserves to keep the lira stable last month and has been one of the few nations to see its credit rating outlook cut.

The prospect of a durable ceasefire will certainly be part of the discussion.

But with inflation still likely to be nearly +30% by the end of the year now according to economists, the likes of JP Morgan and Bank of America expect rates to be hiked 300 basis points back to a bruising 40%.
 

(5) U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Appointment in the Spotlight

Investors will learn more about Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve when former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh appears before Congress for his confirmation hearing on April 21st.

Warsh steps into a tricky backdrop to achieve Trump's desire for lower rates, with the Iran war's energy-price surge driving concerns about higher inflation.

Fed funds futures have swung from pricing in two quarter-point cuts by December to virtually none since the war started in late February.

Trump has openly vented his frustration at current Chair Jerome Powell for not having lowered rates more.

This week, he escalated his pressure campaign, threatening to fire Powell from his separate Fed board seat if he doesn't leave when his term as Chair ends on May 15.

Elsewhere, Tesla (TSLA Quick QuoteTSLA - Free Report) , headlines a packed for U.S. corporate earnings, while March retail sales data could shed light on whether higher prices are hurting consumer spending.
 

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Next are three provocative fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large-cap stocks.

(1) Ciena (CIEN Quick QuoteCIEN - Free Report) : This is a $495 a share tech stock, with a market cap of $70.0B.

It is found in the Zacks Communication Components industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

F12M P/E: 77.8.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Ciena Corp. is a leading provider of optical networking equipment, software and services.

Its reporting segments are: Networking Platforms, Platform Software & Services, Blue Planet Automation Software & Services, and Global Services.

The Networking Platforms segment includes networking solutions optimized for the convergence of coherent optical transport, Optical Transport Network switching and packet switching.

Its products include the 6500 packet-optical platform, the Waveserver family of products, 6500 Reconfigurable Line System, 5400 family of packet-optical platforms and coherent-optimized edge line system, the 3900 family of service delivery switches and service aggregation switches and the 5000 series of service aggregation platforms.

The Platform Software & Services segment provides domain control management, analytics data and planning tools.

Blue Planet is a comprehensive, cloud native and standards-based software portfolio that enables customers to realize their digital transformation.

(2) Ubiquiti (UI Quick QuoteUI - Free Report) : This is a $1,039 a share tech stock, with a market cap of $62.9B. 

It is found in the Zacks Wireless Equipment industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.

F12M P/E: 71.1.

 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Ubiquiti Inc. offers a comprehensive portfolio of networking products and solutions for service providers and enterprises.

Its products offer carrier-class network infrastructure for fixed wireless broadband, wireless backhaul systems and routing, wireless local area network infrastructure, video surveillance & machine-to-machine communication components.

It offers high-performance radios, antennas, software, communications protocols and management tools that are designed to deliver carrier and enterprise class wireless broadband access and other services primarily in the unlicensed radio frequency spectrum.

It has 2 different product categories, namely, Service Provider Technology and Enterprise Technology.

The Service Provider Technology segment: Includes airMAX, airFiber and EdgeMAX embedded radio and antenna product lines. This segment also includes products like base stations, radios, backhaul equipment and Customer Premise Equipment.

The Enterprise Technology segment: Includes UniFi and mFi product lines.

(3) Imperial Oil (IMO Quick QuoteIMO - Free Report) : This is a $125 a share Canadian oil stock, with a market cap of $60.8B.

It is found in the Zacks Oil & Gas-Integrated industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

F12M P/E: 14.7.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Imperial Oil Ltd is mainly engaged in the oil & gas production, petroleum products refining and marketing and chemical business.

It is Canada's largest jet fuel supplier & a major producer of asphalt. It primarily operates under three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical.

The Upstream unit: Involved in the exploration and production of crude and synthetic oil, bitumen and natural gas. Imperial Oil primarily focuses on three main assets in Alberta - the Syncrude oil sands joint venture with Suncor Energy, the Aspen, & the Kearl oil sands projects. Its upstream assets have a proved reserve life of nearly 30 years.

The Downstream segment: Deals with the refining of crude oil along with distribution and marketing of refined products. The unit is engaged with the selling of petroleum products under the Esso & Mobil brands with 1,800 retail sites.

The Chemical segment: Concerned with the manufacture and marketing of various petrochemicals including plasticizers, polyethylene resins, benzene among others.
 

Key Global Macro

Manufacturing PMIs from April are critical macro data points out this week.

On Monday, the U.K. ILO unemployment rate for FEB came out in-line with the prior reading of 5.2%.

On Tuesday, U.S. retail sales for MAR come out. The prior m/m reading was up +0.6%, while the prior y/y reading was up +3.7%.

The Fed’s Waller gives a speech.

On Wednesday, the Australia global manufacturing PMI for April comes out. 49.8 was the prior month’s reading.

On Thursday, the Euro Area HCOB manufacturing PMI for APR also comes out. The prior reading was 51.6.

On Friday, the U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for APR comes out. The prior reading was a very low 47.6.
 

Conclusion

Earnings season remains a major trader focus.

On April 15th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared a Q1 earnings update —

The key points:

(1) We are off to a strong start to the Q1 earnings season, with companies not only comfortably beating consensus estimates but also providing a reassuring read on the economy despite elevated energy costs and other risks.

The momentum is particularly notable on the revenues side at this early stage in the reporting cycle, both in terms of the growth pace as well as the beats percentages.

(2) For the 32 S&P500 companies that have already reported Q1-26 results, total earnings are up +30.5% from the same period last year, on +13.2% higher revenues.

78.1% beat EPS estimates. 84.4% beat revenue estimates.

The earnings and revenue growth rates, and revenue beat percentages, for these companies are notably above what we have seen from this group in other recent periods.

(3) For the Finance sector, we now have Q1-26 results from 34% of the sector’s market capitalization in the S&P500 index.

Total earnings for these companies are up +18.3% from the same period last year on +11.5% higher revenues, with 90% beating EPS estimates and 80% beating revenue estimates.

These Q1-26 results compare favorably with what we have seen from this same group of companies in other recent periods.

(4) Looking at Q1-26 as a whole, combining the actual results from the 32 S&P500 index members that have reported, with estimates for the still-to-come companies?

Total S&P500 earnings are currently expected to increase by +13.9% from the same period last year, on +9.5% higher revenues.

This would follow the +14.1% increase in earnings, on +9.1% higher revenues, in the preceding period (Q4-25).

Enjoy the trading week.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist