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Robinhood’s 2025 performance was impressive. Results benefited substantially from higher trading activity across all asset classes amid heightened volatility. Also, higher net interest revenues, a surge in Gold subscribers and an improvement in Monthly Active Users (MAU) were tailwinds. This largely supported the top line, which soared 52% year over year.
HOOD is expected to have witnessed solid revenue growth in the first quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of $1.17 billion suggests a 26.1% surge on a year-over-year basis.
Robinhood has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 19.8%.
Earnings Surprise
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the past week, the consensus estimate for earnings has remained unchanged at 41 cents. This indicates a rise of 10.8% from the prior-year quarter.
HOOD’s Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is now the correct time to buy HOOD stock, or should you wait after its earnings release? Let’s see how things are shaping up before this announcement.
Factors to Note & Estimates for HOOD’s Q1 Results
Revenues: During the first quarter, client activity was robust, driven by heightened volatility. Hence, Robinhood’s transaction revenues are expected to have increased like its peers, Interactive Brokers (IBKR - Free Report) and Charles Schwab (SCHW - Free Report) .
Interactive Brokers, which released first-quarter results on April 21, witnessed a 19% year-over-year rise in commissions. Likewise, Schwab, which announced quarterly numbers on April 16, recorded 20% growth in trading revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HOOD’s transaction-based revenues is pegged at $658 million, indicating a 12.8% increase from the prior-year quarter. This is likely to have been driven by higher options and equity transaction revenues, while cryptocurrencies transaction revenues are likely to have been subdued due to a sell-off in Bitcoin during the reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for options transaction revenues is $277.3 million, suggesting 15.6% growth. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity and cryptocurrencies transaction revenues is pegged at $82.7 million and $156.2 million, respectively. Equity transaction revenues are projected to surge 47.7%, while cryptocurrencies transaction revenues are estimated to plunge 38% year over year.
Robinhood’s net interest revenues are expected to have witnessed an impressive rise on the back of higher interest-earning assets and securities lending activity. The consensus estimate for the metric is $396.1 million, implying a 36.6% rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $89.5 million, suggesting a 65.7% jump from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Total operating expenses are likely to have remained elevated as HOOD invests in key areas to enhance platform capabilities, drive product innovation, improve customer support and build upon regulatory and compliance functions.
Pending acquisitions of WonderFi Technologies, PT Buana Capital Sekuritas and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto are likely to have resulted in restructuring and merger-related charges in the first quarter. Robinhood’s planned acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, alongside Susquehanna International Group, is also likely to have added to expenses.
What Our Model Unveils for Robinhood
Our quantitative model shows that the chances of an earnings beat for Robinhood are low this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Robinhood has an Earnings ESP of -8.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: It carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.
After a remarkable run on the bourses last year, Robinhood’s shares nosedived 38.7% in the first quarter because of crypto weakness. It has underperformed the industry’s decline of 8.8%. Also, it fared worse than Schwab and Interactive Brokers.
HOOD’s Q1 2026 Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Now, let’s look at the value Robinhood offers investors at current levels.
Currently, HOOD is trading at 9.44X 12-month trailing price/tangible book (P/TB), above the industry’s P/TB TTM multiple of 3.22X. Hence, the stock is trading at a steep premium compared with the industry.
HOOD P/TB TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Further, Robinhood stock is expensive compared with Interactive Brokers and Schwab. At present, Interactive Brokers and Schwab have a P/TB TTM of 1.71X and 6.84X, respectively.
Investment Thesis for Robinhood
Robinhood is making tangible progress in broadening its business mix and deepening its product ecosystem. The company’s strategy of launching new offerings and pursuing international expansion supports its long-term ambition to build a more diversified global platform.
HOOD’s expanding suite of products continues to resonate with a younger, digitally native customer base, while the gradual shift away from transaction-driven revenue underscores improving business maturity. Strong liquidity, a newly authorized $1.5 billion share repurchase program and healthy user growth amid broader digital asset adoption further strengthen the constructive view.
Robinhood appears well-positioned to scale and diversify its operations. Given the persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated market volatility, the company will likely benefit from stronger trading activity. However, weakness in cryptocurrency markets may remain a near-term headwind to financial performance.
Robinhood continues to face increasing regulatory scrutiny, fines and investigations across multiple jurisdictions, which could elevate compliance costs and complicate its expansion strategy. In addition, its push into banking introduces execution risk, particularly in an intensely competitive environment, which may keep investors measured on the pace and magnitude of success.
The company is also continuing to invest in its crypto business through tokenization initiatives, platform enhancements, acquisitions and expansion in Europe. Still, recent volatility in Bitcoin and other digital assets has pressured sentiment and trading engagement, as reflected in a steady decline in crypto Daily Average Revenue Trades. While Robinhood is working to reposition itself as more than a crypto-driven platform, that transition is likely to take time.
How to Approach Robinhood Shares Before Q1 Earnings?
While Robinhood’s first-quarter revenues are expected to rise, the setup appears unfavorable given mounting cost pressures, weaker crypto activity and premium valuation. Crypto transaction revenues are projected to fall, reflecting softer retail engagement amid digital asset volatility, while total expenses likely remained elevated due to investments in platform upgrades, compliance, customer support and multiple pending acquisitions. Additional restructuring, merger-related and deal expenses could weigh on margins.
HOOD stock also looks expensive. After underperforming sharply in the first quarter, risk-reward remains unattractive. Hence, investors should reduce exposure before the earnings release.
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Robinhood's Q1 Earnings Preview: Buy the Dip or Maintain Caution?
Key Takeaways
Robinhood Markets (HOOD - Free Report) is set to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 28 after market close.
Robinhood’s 2025 performance was impressive. Results benefited substantially from higher trading activity across all asset classes amid heightened volatility. Also, higher net interest revenues, a surge in Gold subscribers and an improvement in Monthly Active Users (MAU) were tailwinds. This largely supported the top line, which soared 52% year over year.
HOOD is expected to have witnessed solid revenue growth in the first quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of $1.17 billion suggests a 26.1% surge on a year-over-year basis.
Robinhood has an impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 19.8%.
Earnings Surprise
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the past week, the consensus estimate for earnings has remained unchanged at 41 cents. This indicates a rise of 10.8% from the prior-year quarter.
HOOD’s Earnings Estimates
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Is now the correct time to buy HOOD stock, or should you wait after its earnings release? Let’s see how things are shaping up before this announcement.
Factors to Note & Estimates for HOOD’s Q1 Results
Revenues: During the first quarter, client activity was robust, driven by heightened volatility. Hence, Robinhood’s transaction revenues are expected to have increased like its peers, Interactive Brokers (IBKR - Free Report) and Charles Schwab (SCHW - Free Report) .
Interactive Brokers, which released first-quarter results on April 21, witnessed a 19% year-over-year rise in commissions. Likewise, Schwab, which announced quarterly numbers on April 16, recorded 20% growth in trading revenues.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HOOD’s transaction-based revenues is pegged at $658 million, indicating a 12.8% increase from the prior-year quarter. This is likely to have been driven by higher options and equity transaction revenues, while cryptocurrencies transaction revenues are likely to have been subdued due to a sell-off in Bitcoin during the reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for options transaction revenues is $277.3 million, suggesting 15.6% growth. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity and cryptocurrencies transaction revenues is pegged at $82.7 million and $156.2 million, respectively. Equity transaction revenues are projected to surge 47.7%, while cryptocurrencies transaction revenues are estimated to plunge 38% year over year.
Robinhood’s net interest revenues are expected to have witnessed an impressive rise on the back of higher interest-earning assets and securities lending activity. The consensus estimate for the metric is $396.1 million, implying a 36.6% rise.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for other revenues is pegged at $89.5 million, suggesting a 65.7% jump from the prior-year quarter.
Expenses: Total operating expenses are likely to have remained elevated as HOOD invests in key areas to enhance platform capabilities, drive product innovation, improve customer support and build upon regulatory and compliance functions.
Pending acquisitions of WonderFi Technologies, PT Buana Capital Sekuritas and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto are likely to have resulted in restructuring and merger-related charges in the first quarter. Robinhood’s planned acquisition of a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, alongside Susquehanna International Group, is also likely to have added to expenses.
What Our Model Unveils for Robinhood
Our quantitative model shows that the chances of an earnings beat for Robinhood are low this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you see below.
Earnings ESP: Robinhood has an Earnings ESP of -8.63%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: It carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), at present.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
HOOD Stock Price Performance & Valuation
After a remarkable run on the bourses last year, Robinhood’s shares nosedived 38.7% in the first quarter because of crypto weakness. It has underperformed the industry’s decline of 8.8%. Also, it fared worse than Schwab and Interactive Brokers.
HOOD’s Q1 2026 Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Now, let’s look at the value Robinhood offers investors at current levels.
Currently, HOOD is trading at 9.44X 12-month trailing price/tangible book (P/TB), above the industry’s P/TB TTM multiple of 3.22X. Hence, the stock is trading at a steep premium compared with the industry.
HOOD P/TB TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Further, Robinhood stock is expensive compared with Interactive Brokers and Schwab. At present, Interactive Brokers and Schwab have a P/TB TTM of 1.71X and 6.84X, respectively.
Investment Thesis for Robinhood
Robinhood is making tangible progress in broadening its business mix and deepening its product ecosystem. The company’s strategy of launching new offerings and pursuing international expansion supports its long-term ambition to build a more diversified global platform.
HOOD’s expanding suite of products continues to resonate with a younger, digitally native customer base, while the gradual shift away from transaction-driven revenue underscores improving business maturity. Strong liquidity, a newly authorized $1.5 billion share repurchase program and healthy user growth amid broader digital asset adoption further strengthen the constructive view.
Robinhood appears well-positioned to scale and diversify its operations. Given the persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated market volatility, the company will likely benefit from stronger trading activity. However, weakness in cryptocurrency markets may remain a near-term headwind to financial performance.
Robinhood continues to face increasing regulatory scrutiny, fines and investigations across multiple jurisdictions, which could elevate compliance costs and complicate its expansion strategy. In addition, its push into banking introduces execution risk, particularly in an intensely competitive environment, which may keep investors measured on the pace and magnitude of success.
The company is also continuing to invest in its crypto business through tokenization initiatives, platform enhancements, acquisitions and expansion in Europe. Still, recent volatility in Bitcoin and other digital assets has pressured sentiment and trading engagement, as reflected in a steady decline in crypto Daily Average Revenue Trades. While Robinhood is working to reposition itself as more than a crypto-driven platform, that transition is likely to take time.
How to Approach Robinhood Shares Before Q1 Earnings?
While Robinhood’s first-quarter revenues are expected to rise, the setup appears unfavorable given mounting cost pressures, weaker crypto activity and premium valuation. Crypto transaction revenues are projected to fall, reflecting softer retail engagement amid digital asset volatility, while total expenses likely remained elevated due to investments in platform upgrades, compliance, customer support and multiple pending acquisitions. Additional restructuring, merger-related and deal expenses could weigh on margins.
HOOD stock also looks expensive. After underperforming sharply in the first quarter, risk-reward remains unattractive. Hence, investors should reduce exposure before the earnings release.