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MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 12.5%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter loss per share is pegged at 24 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported an adjusted loss per share of 3 cents.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $801.4 million. The metric indicates a decline of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things might have shaped up in the to-be-reported quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q1 Results
Mattel’s first-quarter 2026 top line is likely to have benefited from continued strength in key categories such as vehicles and challenger segments, including action figures and games, supported by strong brands like Hot Wheels and UNO. Product innovation and newer offerings, such as building sets, along with steady POS growth across regions, indicate resilient consumer demand.
The company’s expanding entertainment strategy, partnerships with major IP owners and growing digital initiatives, including mobile games and direct-to-consumer channels, are also expected to have supported revenues. Additionally, consistent performance in international markets provides a stabilizing factor for overall sales.
However, Mattel’s top line is expected to have declined year over year in the first quarter due to headwinds primarily in the U.S. market. A shift toward more conservative, just-in-time retailer ordering and the transition from direct imports to domestic shipments have been creating timing-related pressure on reported sales. The timing of new product launches further limits early-quarter contributions. Weakness in certain categories, particularly dolls and infant, toddler and preschool segments, along with softer performance in some Barbie-related lines, also weighs on growth. Additionally, a highly promotional retail environment and cautious inventory management by retailers reflect a price-sensitive consumer backdrop, further constraining revenue performance.
Mattel’s bottom line in the first quarter of 2026 is likely to have faced pressure from multiple cost-related and operational headwinds. The company has been navigating a highly promotional retail environment, which typically leads to higher discounting and weaker margins. At the same time, ongoing product cost inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange movements are expected to have weighed on profitability.
Additionally, there is a timing lag between pricing actions and the realization of tariff-related costs, which can compress margins in the near term. Strategic investments in digital games, marketing and technology, while beneficial long-term, are also likely to have elevated expenses in the short run. Lastly, actions taken to manage inventory and support retail partners, including increased promotions, might have further strained margins, collectively impacting the company’s bottom-line performance.
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of +20.83%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Choice Hotels’ earnings are expected to decline 2.2%. Choice Hotels reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 0.7%.
Hilton Worldwide, Inc. (HLT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton Worldwide’s earnings are expected to increase 13.4%. Hilton Worldwide reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.7%.
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Marriott International’s earnings are expected to increase 11.6%. Marriott International reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.7%.
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Mattel Prepares to Unveil Q1 Earnings: What Investors Should Know
Key Takeaways
Mattel, Inc. (MAT - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, after the closing bell.
MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, with an average surprise of 12.5%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter loss per share is pegged at 24 cents. In the prior-year quarter, the company reported an adjusted loss per share of 3 cents.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $801.4 million. The metric indicates a decline of 3.1% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things might have shaped up in the to-be-reported quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q1 Results
Mattel’s first-quarter 2026 top line is likely to have benefited from continued strength in key categories such as vehicles and challenger segments, including action figures and games, supported by strong brands like Hot Wheels and UNO. Product innovation and newer offerings, such as building sets, along with steady POS growth across regions, indicate resilient consumer demand.
The company’s expanding entertainment strategy, partnerships with major IP owners and growing digital initiatives, including mobile games and direct-to-consumer channels, are also expected to have supported revenues. Additionally, consistent performance in international markets provides a stabilizing factor for overall sales.
However, Mattel’s top line is expected to have declined year over year in the first quarter due to headwinds primarily in the U.S. market. A shift toward more conservative, just-in-time retailer ordering and the transition from direct imports to domestic shipments have been creating timing-related pressure on reported sales. The timing of new product launches further limits early-quarter contributions. Weakness in certain categories, particularly dolls and infant, toddler and preschool segments, along with softer performance in some Barbie-related lines, also weighs on growth. Additionally, a highly promotional retail environment and cautious inventory management by retailers reflect a price-sensitive consumer backdrop, further constraining revenue performance.
Mattel’s bottom line in the first quarter of 2026 is likely to have faced pressure from multiple cost-related and operational headwinds. The company has been navigating a highly promotional retail environment, which typically leads to higher discounting and weaker margins. At the same time, ongoing product cost inflation and unfavorable foreign exchange movements are expected to have weighed on profitability.
Additionally, there is a timing lag between pricing actions and the realization of tariff-related costs, which can compress margins in the near term. Strategic investments in digital games, marketing and technology, while beneficial long-term, are also likely to have elevated expenses in the short run. Lastly, actions taken to manage inventory and support retail partners, including increased promotions, might have further strained margins, collectively impacting the company’s bottom-line performance.
Mattel, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Mattel, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mattel, Inc. Quote
What Our Model Says About MAT Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. That is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of +20.83%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Choice Hotels’ earnings are expected to decline 2.2%. Choice Hotels reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, the average miss being 0.7%.
Hilton Worldwide, Inc. (HLT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton Worldwide’s earnings are expected to increase 13.4%. Hilton Worldwide reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.7%.
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Marriott International’s earnings are expected to increase 11.6%. Marriott International reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 0.7%.