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Smurfit Westrock Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Key Takeaways

  • Smurfit Westrock is set to post Q1 results, with revenues rising 1.4% but EPS expected to fall y/y.
  • SW sees stable demand from essentials and e-commerce, but weak Europe volumes and box demand weigh.
  • Smurfit Westrock faces merger costs, though pricing actions and cost cuts may offset some pressure.

Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.76 billion, indicating 1.4% growth from the year-ago quarter's reported figure.

The consensus mark for earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 50 cents, indicating a year-over-year dip from 73 cents. The bottom-line estimate has moved 26.4% south in the past 60 days.

 

Zacks Investment Research Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Smurfit Westrock’s Earnings Surprise History

The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, delivering an average negative surprise of 12.4%.

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Factors Likely to Shape SW’s Q1 Results

Demand for corrugated packaging and containerboard used to package essential items, such as food, beverages and medicines, has been stable. Strong growth in e-commerce and rising demand for paper as a sustainable packaging solution have favored the industry. These trends are expected to get reflected in Smurfit Westrock’s first-quarter 2026 results.

However, some of these gains are likely to have been offset by weak volumes in Europe and lower box demand. This is expected to hurt Smurfit Westrock’s quarterly results.

The merger-related costs are expected to have affected SW’s quarterly performance and free cash flow margin. Pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives are likely to have negated some of these headwinds.

Smurfit Westrock’s Q1 Segmental Projection

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Europe, MEA and APAC’s revenues is pegged at $2.79 billion for the first quarter, indicating an increase from the $2.58 billion reported in the first quarter of 2025. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $424 million. In the prior-year quarter, the segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $389 million.

The estimates for the North America segment’s first-quarter 2026 revenues are pegged at $4.45 billion compared with the $4.58 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $624 million, suggesting a 20% year-over-year dip.

The LATAM segment’s revenue estimate is pegged at $524 million, suggesting year-over-year growth from $502 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $121 million, indicating a rise from the $115 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for SW Stock

Our model does not predict an earnings beat for Smurfit Westrock this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

SW’s Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Smurfit Westrock is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SW’s Zacks Rank: SW currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Smurfit Westrock Stock’s Price Performance

Shares of the company have lost 2% in the past year compared with the industry’s 10.9% decline. During this time, the Basic Materials sector has jumped 49.8%, whereas the S&P 500 has grown 35.3%.

 

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF - Free Report) , scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +1.07% and flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

CF Industries’ earnings estimates for the first quarter have moved up 11.4% over the past 60 days. The estimate is pegged at $2.35 cents per share, indicating an increase of 27% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. CF Industries has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.1%.

Albemarle Corporation (ALB - Free Report) , scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +20.12%. It carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Albemarle’s earnings for the first quarter is pegged at $1.24, indicating a turnaround from the loss of 18 cents incurred in the year-ago quarter. Albemarle has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 57.8%.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) , slated to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 29, has an Earnings ESP of +7.07% and a Zacks Rank #3. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold’s earnings for the first quarter is pegged at 68 cents, indicating a year-over-year upsurge of 126%. Kinross Gold has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 26.1%.

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