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Here's How to Play Trade Desk Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release
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Key Takeaways
Trade Desk expects Q1 revenue growth of about 10%, with estimates at $679.3M.
TTD's CTV, retail media and Kokai AI platform remain key growth drivers despite slowing momentum.
Macro uncertainty, soft demand in key ad sectors and strong competition weigh on the near-term outlook.
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD - Free Report) will report its first-quarter 2026 results after market close on May 7.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter is 32 cents, compared with 33 cents in the prior-year quarter. The consensus estimate for total revenues is pinned at $679.3 million, implying a 10.3% year-over-year increase.
TTD expects revenues to be at least $678 million, up 10% year over year. It projects $195 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TTD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, meeting once and missing in the remaining, with an average surprise of 7.97%.
Let us see how TTD is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
What Our Model Predicts for TTD’s Q1
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for TTD this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TTD has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Continued momentum in key business areas, such as Connected TV (“CTV”), is expected to have cushioned TTD’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. CTV is the fastest-growing segment of the digital ad market, given the ongoing shift from linear TV.
Increasing digital spending in CTV, particularly for premium content and live sports, is a key growth driver. The transition toward biddable CTV is gaining momentum. The benefits of decision-based buying (like greater flexibility, control and performance) compared with traditional programmatic guaranteed or insertion-order models are rendering it the logical choice for advertisers.
Apart from CTV, momentum in retail media, international expansion, the Kokai platform and efforts to strengthen go-to-market capabilities are likely to have acted as tailwinds.
Retail media is quickly emerging as another area of expanding opportunity. On the last earnings call, management noted that over the past five years, the company has formed partnerships with retailers around the world to build what it describes as the “largest and richest marketplace of retail data” globally. According to the company, retailers participating in its data marketplace collectively represent more than half of retail sales worldwide. New initiatives like Audience Unlimited aim to simplify data usage and pricing, possibly unlocking higher uptake of third-party and retail data.
TTD has strengthened its relationships with major advertisers through Joint Business Plans (JBPs). By the end of 2025, JBPs accounted for over 50% of the company’s business and the pipeline had more than doubled year over year.
Kokai, TTD’s next-generation AI-powered DSP experience, remains central to its AI strategy. Nearly 100% clients now use Kokai as their default experience and this is strengthening its competitive moat. The Trade Desk’s increasing focus on embedding AI across its platform bodes well. Management views the combination of TTD’s proprietary AI capabilities and platform objectivity as a powerful competitive strength.
While North America accounts for 84% of advertising spend, TTD has been steadily expanding its global footprint, driven by faster-growing international markets. This increasing global presence offers clients localized marketplace expertise across key regions.
Nonetheless, challenges persist for Trade Desk. Though TTD is focusing on geographic expansion, executing well across disparate markets can be complex and risky. Regulatory and privacy-related changes like the deprecation of cookies and tightening data-privacy laws like Europe’s GDPR also pose ongoing challenges.
Further, the intensely competitive nature of the digital advertising industry, dominated by walled gardens like Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , as well as players like Magnite (MGNI - Free Report) , continues to put pressure on TTD’s market positioning. Amazon’s expanding DSP business has been giving tough competition to TTD, especially in the CTV space. Even Magnite is expanding its presence in CTV and retail media and competing for ad dollars. Moreover, digital advertising is more of a buyer’s market, where supply is generally greater than demand. This implies persistent pricing and margin pressure and a need for innovation to maintain differentiation.
Further, TTD highlighted soft demand in several important advertising verticals, particularly in consumer-packaged goods and automotive, on the last earnings call. These categories represented some of the company’s weakest areas in the fourth quarter and remain soft entering 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TTD is focused on embedding AI across the portfolio, which will further raise capex and operational costs. The company expects adjusted EBITDA margins in 2026 to remain roughly in line with 2025, as it continues investing in AI capabilities, product innovation and go-to-market infrastructure.
Although TTD continues to grow, the growth rate has been slowing compared with previous years. While fourth-quarter 2025 revenues were up 14%, first-quarter revenues are expected to increase 10%.
Macro-driven caution around advertising budgets remains a significant concern for a pure-play ad tech company like The Trade Desk. Higher interest rates, geopolitical instability and uneven global growth are likely to have weighed on marketing spend visibility.
Analysts have kept their estimates unchanged for the first quarter for TTD’s bottom line over the past 60 days.
TTD Stock in the Red
TTD’s shares have declined 52% over the past six months. It has significantly underperformed the Internet-Services industry and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s rise of 30% and 6.9%, respectively.
TTD’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company has underperformed compared with its digital advertising peers, including Alphabet (up 35.6%), Amazon (up 4.4%) and Magnite (down 27.8%).
Let’s Take a Look at TTD’s Valuation
The stock is trading at a discount with a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 10.96X compared with the industry’s 30.66X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AMZN, GOOGL and MGNI are trading at forward 12-month price/earnings multiples of 31.97X, 31.69X and 12.02X, respectively.
How to Approach TTD Before Q1 Earnings Release
Overall, The Trade Desk has a compelling long-term narrative centered on AI, data and CTV footprint, but faces short-term headwinds that could keep investor sentiment in check. Macroeconomic uncertainty and intensifying competition from Amazon and Alphabet remain concerning.
Given these factors, it may not be a wise idea to bet on TTD stock. It is better to wait for management’s commentary at the upcoming earnings call. Investors may be better off waiting for a more attractive entry point.
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Here's How to Play Trade Desk Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release
Key Takeaways
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD - Free Report) will report its first-quarter 2026 results after market close on May 7.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter is 32 cents, compared with 33 cents in the prior-year quarter. The consensus estimate for total revenues is pinned at $679.3 million, implying a 10.3% year-over-year increase.
TTD expects revenues to be at least $678 million, up 10% year over year. It projects $195 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TTD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, meeting once and missing in the remaining, with an average surprise of 7.97%.
Let us see how TTD is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
What Our Model Predicts for TTD’s Q1
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for TTD this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
TTD has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors to Focus on Ahead of TTD’s Q1 Earnings
Continued momentum in key business areas, such as Connected TV (“CTV”), is expected to have cushioned TTD’s top-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. CTV is the fastest-growing segment of the digital ad market, given the ongoing shift from linear TV.
Increasing digital spending in CTV, particularly for premium content and live sports, is a key growth driver. The transition toward biddable CTV is gaining momentum. The benefits of decision-based buying (like greater flexibility, control and performance) compared with traditional programmatic guaranteed or insertion-order models are rendering it the logical choice for advertisers.
Apart from CTV, momentum in retail media, international expansion, the Kokai platform and efforts to strengthen go-to-market capabilities are likely to have acted as tailwinds.
Retail media is quickly emerging as another area of expanding opportunity. On the last earnings call, management noted that over the past five years, the company has formed partnerships with retailers around the world to build what it describes as the “largest and richest marketplace of retail data” globally. According to the company, retailers participating in its data marketplace collectively represent more than half of retail sales worldwide. New initiatives like Audience Unlimited aim to simplify data usage and pricing, possibly unlocking higher uptake of third-party and retail data.
TTD has strengthened its relationships with major advertisers through Joint Business Plans (JBPs). By the end of 2025, JBPs accounted for over 50% of the company’s business and the pipeline had more than doubled year over year.
The Trade Desk Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The Trade Desk price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Trade Desk Quote
Kokai, TTD’s next-generation AI-powered DSP experience, remains central to its AI strategy. Nearly 100% clients now use Kokai as their default experience and this is strengthening its competitive moat. The Trade Desk’s increasing focus on embedding AI across its platform bodes well. Management views the combination of TTD’s proprietary AI capabilities and platform objectivity as a powerful competitive strength.
While North America accounts for 84% of advertising spend, TTD has been steadily expanding its global footprint, driven by faster-growing international markets. This increasing global presence offers clients localized marketplace expertise across key regions.
Nonetheless, challenges persist for Trade Desk. Though TTD is focusing on geographic expansion, executing well across disparate markets can be complex and risky. Regulatory and privacy-related changes like the deprecation of cookies and tightening data-privacy laws like Europe’s GDPR also pose ongoing challenges.
Further, the intensely competitive nature of the digital advertising industry, dominated by walled gardens like Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) , as well as players like Magnite (MGNI - Free Report) , continues to put pressure on TTD’s market positioning. Amazon’s expanding DSP business has been giving tough competition to TTD, especially in the CTV space. Even Magnite is expanding its presence in CTV and retail media and competing for ad dollars. Moreover, digital advertising is more of a buyer’s market, where supply is generally greater than demand. This implies persistent pricing and margin pressure and a need for innovation to maintain differentiation.
Further, TTD highlighted soft demand in several important advertising verticals, particularly in consumer-packaged goods and automotive, on the last earnings call. These categories represented some of the company’s weakest areas in the fourth quarter and remain soft entering 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
TTD is focused on embedding AI across the portfolio, which will further raise capex and operational costs. The company expects adjusted EBITDA margins in 2026 to remain roughly in line with 2025, as it continues investing in AI capabilities, product innovation and go-to-market infrastructure.
Although TTD continues to grow, the growth rate has been slowing compared with previous years. While fourth-quarter 2025 revenues were up 14%, first-quarter revenues are expected to increase 10%.
Macro-driven caution around advertising budgets remains a significant concern for a pure-play ad tech company like The Trade Desk. Higher interest rates, geopolitical instability and uneven global growth are likely to have weighed on marketing spend visibility.
Analysts have kept their estimates unchanged for the first quarter for TTD’s bottom line over the past 60 days.
TTD Stock in the Red
TTD’s shares have declined 52% over the past six months. It has significantly underperformed the Internet-Services industry and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s rise of 30% and 6.9%, respectively.
TTD’s Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The company has underperformed compared with its digital advertising peers, including Alphabet (up 35.6%), Amazon (up 4.4%) and Magnite (down 27.8%).
Let’s Take a Look at TTD’s Valuation
The stock is trading at a discount with a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 10.96X compared with the industry’s 30.66X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AMZN, GOOGL and MGNI are trading at forward 12-month price/earnings multiples of 31.97X, 31.69X and 12.02X, respectively.
How to Approach TTD Before Q1 Earnings Release
Overall, The Trade Desk has a compelling long-term narrative centered on AI, data and CTV footprint, but faces short-term headwinds that could keep investor sentiment in check. Macroeconomic uncertainty and intensifying competition from Amazon and Alphabet remain concerning.
Given these factors, it may not be a wise idea to bet on TTD stock. It is better to wait for management’s commentary at the upcoming earnings call. Investors may be better off waiting for a more attractive entry point.