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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $26.2 billion, implying an increase of 24.4% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings estimate of 93 cents per share has been revised upward by 2.2% over the past seven days, suggesting a 50% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBR’s revenues is pegged at $117.8 billion, implying a rise of 32% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share stands at $4.66, indicating a surge of 66.4%.
PBR's Earnings Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 26.3% on the back of upstream production growth and higher downstream earnings. Petrobras’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, with the average negative surprise being 2.8%.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras Price and EPS Surprise
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Petrobras is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PBR has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 93 cents per share each.
Zacks Rank: Petrobras currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Petrobras entered first-quarter 2026 with strong production momentum. As per its Production & Sales report, the company’s total output reached a record 3.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) during the quarter, up 3.7% sequentially and 16.1% year over year, helped by the ramp-up of P-78 in Búzios, Alexandre de Gusmão in Mero, and Anna Nery/Anita Garibaldi in Campos Basin. Pre-salt liquids output rose to 2.19 million barrels per day (MMbpd), while 10 new producing wells started operations. P-78 was especially important, hitting about 100 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd) from only two wells after gas injection began on March 2, just 61 days after first oil. This higher, more efficient output likely lifted volumes and cash generation.
The refining system also looked supportive for first-quarter 2026 results. Petrobras’ total oil-product output rose 6.7% from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.816 MMbpd, backed by a 95% utilization factor, up from 89% in the December quarter. March was even stronger, with utilization at 97.4%, the best since December 2014. Diesel production increased 7.4%, and S10 diesel reached a monthly record of 512 Mbpd in March. Higher refinery runs helped reduce imports: diesel imports fell 67.3% sequentially, gasoline imports dropped to zero, and LPG imports fell to 26 Mbpd, the lowest level reported. This likely helped improve first-quarter profitability.
A key drag was weaker domestic demand versus the fourth quarter. Total domestic oil-product sales fell 1.5% sequentially to 1.745 MMbpd, reflecting typical first-quarter seasonality. Diesel sales dropped 6.1%, gasoline declined 4.0%, LPG fell 2.8%, and fuel oil slid 13.0%. Management linked this to lower early-year economic activity, reduced vehicle circulation after the holiday period, warmer weather, and softer industrial deliveries. The soft domestic sales may have limited some earnings upside.
Global Peers Set the Tone for Q1 Earnings
While Petrobras is set to report its first-quarter results early next week, some of its global peers have already released their earnings. Their performance provides a useful benchmark for how integrated energy companies navigated the quarter.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) announced first-quarter 2026 earnings that surpassed expectations, thanks to contributions from advantageous assets such as Permian and Guyana. Structural cost savings also contributed to the positive developments. ExxonMobil mentioned that Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, will remain the growth driver, brightening the overall business outlook. The company reported earnings per share of $1.16 (excluding identified items), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil’s total quarterly revenues of $85.1 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.5 billion.
Another integrated energy behemoth, Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.41, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92 cents. Chevron’s outperformance stemmed from higher upstream production, particularly in the United States, following the integration of Hess assets and continued growth in the Gulf of America and the Permian Basin. The company generated $2.5 billion in cash flow from operations during the first quarter of 2026, down from $5.2 billion in the prior-year quarter. Chevron’s cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.1 billion.
PBR Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Shares of Petrobras have gone up 69.2% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of around 31%. Shares of ExxonMobil have gained 32.1%, while the Chevron stock is up 24.2%.
6-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — PBR is trading at a discount compared to the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should You Play Petrobras Pre-Q1 Earnings?
Petrobras enters its upcoming results with strong underlying momentum, supported by record production, high refinery utilization and a low-cost asset base that continues to generate solid cash flows even in a volatile price environment. The ramp-up of key pre-salt projects and improving operational efficiency provide clear visibility into sustained volume growth. At the same time, disciplined capital spending and a shareholder-friendly payout framework enhance its overall investment appeal. While near-term demand softness may create some noise, the company’s fundamentals remain intact, making the current setup attractive for investors looking to build or add positions ahead of the earnings release.
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Buying Petrobras Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings: Worth the Risk?
Key Takeaways
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., or Petrobras (PBR - Free Report) , is slated to release first-quarter 2026 results on May 11.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $26.2 billion, implying an increase of 24.4% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings estimate of 93 cents per share has been revised upward by 2.2% over the past seven days, suggesting a 50% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.
For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PBR’s revenues is pegged at $117.8 billion, implying a rise of 32% year over year. The consensus mark for 2026 earnings per share stands at $4.66, indicating a surge of 66.4%.
PBR's Earnings Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 26.3% on the back of upstream production growth and higher downstream earnings. Petrobras’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other two, with the average negative surprise being 2.8%.
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras Price and EPS Surprise
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras price-eps-surprise | Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras Quote
Q1 Earnings Whispers for Petrobras
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Petrobras is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PBR has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 93 cents per share each.
Zacks Rank: Petrobras currently carries a Zacks Rank of 1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping PBR’s Upcoming Q1 Results
Petrobras entered first-quarter 2026 with strong production momentum. As per its Production & Sales report, the company’s total output reached a record 3.23 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) during the quarter, up 3.7% sequentially and 16.1% year over year, helped by the ramp-up of P-78 in Búzios, Alexandre de Gusmão in Mero, and Anna Nery/Anita Garibaldi in Campos Basin. Pre-salt liquids output rose to 2.19 million barrels per day (MMbpd), while 10 new producing wells started operations. P-78 was especially important, hitting about 100 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd) from only two wells after gas injection began on March 2, just 61 days after first oil. This higher, more efficient output likely lifted volumes and cash generation.
The refining system also looked supportive for first-quarter 2026 results. Petrobras’ total oil-product output rose 6.7% from the fourth quarter of 2025 to 1.816 MMbpd, backed by a 95% utilization factor, up from 89% in the December quarter. March was even stronger, with utilization at 97.4%, the best since December 2014. Diesel production increased 7.4%, and S10 diesel reached a monthly record of 512 Mbpd in March. Higher refinery runs helped reduce imports: diesel imports fell 67.3% sequentially, gasoline imports dropped to zero, and LPG imports fell to 26 Mbpd, the lowest level reported. This likely helped improve first-quarter profitability.
A key drag was weaker domestic demand versus the fourth quarter. Total domestic oil-product sales fell 1.5% sequentially to 1.745 MMbpd, reflecting typical first-quarter seasonality. Diesel sales dropped 6.1%, gasoline declined 4.0%, LPG fell 2.8%, and fuel oil slid 13.0%. Management linked this to lower early-year economic activity, reduced vehicle circulation after the holiday period, warmer weather, and softer industrial deliveries. The soft domestic sales may have limited some earnings upside.
Global Peers Set the Tone for Q1 Earnings
While Petrobras is set to report its first-quarter results early next week, some of its global peers have already released their earnings. Their performance provides a useful benchmark for how integrated energy companies navigated the quarter.
ExxonMobil (XOM - Free Report) announced first-quarter 2026 earnings that surpassed expectations, thanks to contributions from advantageous assets such as Permian and Guyana. Structural cost savings also contributed to the positive developments. ExxonMobil mentioned that Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States, will remain the growth driver, brightening the overall business outlook. The company reported earnings per share of $1.16 (excluding identified items), which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil’s total quarterly revenues of $85.1 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $81.5 billion.
Another integrated energy behemoth, Chevron (CVX - Free Report) , reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.41, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 92 cents. Chevron’s outperformance stemmed from higher upstream production, particularly in the United States, following the integration of Hess assets and continued growth in the Gulf of America and the Permian Basin. The company generated $2.5 billion in cash flow from operations during the first quarter of 2026, down from $5.2 billion in the prior-year quarter. Chevron’s cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $7.1 billion.
PBR Price Performance & Stock Valuation
Shares of Petrobras have gone up 69.2% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of around 31%. Shares of ExxonMobil have gained 32.1%, while the Chevron stock is up 24.2%.
6-Month Price Performance
From a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — PBR is trading at a discount compared to the industry average.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
How Should You Play Petrobras Pre-Q1 Earnings?
Petrobras enters its upcoming results with strong underlying momentum, supported by record production, high refinery utilization and a low-cost asset base that continues to generate solid cash flows even in a volatile price environment. The ramp-up of key pre-salt projects and improving operational efficiency provide clear visibility into sustained volume growth. At the same time, disciplined capital spending and a shareholder-friendly payout framework enhance its overall investment appeal. While near-term demand softness may create some noise, the company’s fundamentals remain intact, making the current setup attractive for investors looking to build or add positions ahead of the earnings release.