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MOS to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
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Key Takeaways
Mosaic set to report Q1 2026 results on May 11, with revenues seen up 4.9% year over year.
MOS benefits from strong fertilizer demand, higher prices and cost-cut actions.
Mosaic faces margin pressure from rising sulfur costs and expects up to $400M in pre-tax charges.
The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on May 11.
Mosaic beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed it twice. It delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of around 11.6%, on average. The company is expected to have benefited from favorable demand for phosphate and potash, higher fertilizer prices and actions to improve its cost structure in the first quarter amid headwinds from input cost inflation.
MOS's shares are down 26.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 19.4% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Do MOS’ Revenue Estimates Say?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for MOS is currently pegged at $2,749.3 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.9%.
Factors at Play for MOS Stock
Strong demand for fertilizers is expected to have aided Mosaic’s volumes in the first quarter. Attractive farm economics continue to drive demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs. The phosphate market is benefiting from higher global demand and low producer and channel inventories. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Improved farmer affordability is also driving demand for fertilizers.
Our estimate for consolidated sales volumes for the first quarter is 6.1 million tons, suggesting a 5% year over year rise.
MOS’s actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are also expected to have aided its profitability. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets in 2025, mostly in Fertilizantes. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts.
Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to have supported the company’s first-quarter performance. Strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices were driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. The upward momentum in fertilizer prices continues this year.
Our estimate for the average selling price for the Phosphate unit is pegged at $653 per ton, indicating a 3.3% year over year increase. The same for the Potash unit stands at $260 per ton, suggesting an 11% year over year rise.
Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. Supply disruptions contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia last year. Plant shutdowns and maintenance led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Higher raw material costs led to an increase in the company’s production costs.
The impacts of raw material inflation are likely to reflect in the company’s margins in the first quarter. MOS has witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which is expected to have weighed on phosphate margins in the first quarter.
Mosaic, last month, announced that it will idle its Araxa Mining and Chemical Complex and suspend mining operations at the Patrocínio Complex in Brazil as part of a strategic effort to streamline operations and improve cost efficiency. The company expects these actions to reduce its annual phosphate production at Mosaic Fertilizantes by approximately 1 million tons, reflecting a meaningful decline in Brazilian output. Mosaic intends to pursue the sale of its Araxa assets, signaling a broader portfolio optimization strategy focused on higher-return operations.
The company anticipates a pre-tax charge of $350-$400 million for the first quarter of 2026, including $275 million to $300 million in asset impairments and the remainder related to severance and contract termination costs. Some impacts of these charges are expected to reflect on MOS’s first-quarter results.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is -7.50%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 20 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
The consensus estimate for LAC’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 7 cents.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +7.44% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for WPM’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.15.
Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.56%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 74 cents. B currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
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MOS to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
The Mosaic Company (MOS - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 results before the opening bell on May 11.
Mosaic beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed it twice. It delivered a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of around 11.6%, on average. The company is expected to have benefited from favorable demand for phosphate and potash, higher fertilizer prices and actions to improve its cost structure in the first quarter amid headwinds from input cost inflation.
MOS's shares are down 26.3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 19.4% rise.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What Do MOS’ Revenue Estimates Say?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter consolidated revenues for MOS is currently pegged at $2,749.3 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.9%.
Factors at Play for MOS Stock
Strong demand for fertilizers is expected to have aided Mosaic’s volumes in the first quarter. Attractive farm economics continue to drive demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs. The phosphate market is benefiting from higher global demand and low producer and channel inventories. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. Improved farmer affordability is also driving demand for fertilizers.
Our estimate for consolidated sales volumes for the first quarter is 6.1 million tons, suggesting a 5% year over year rise.
MOS’s actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are also expected to have aided its profitability. Mosaic remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $250 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already achieved $150 million in cost reduction targets in 2025, mostly in Fertilizantes. The additional cost reductions are expected to be realized through optimization of the supply chain, automation of administrative functions, absorption of fixed costs and operational cost cuts.
Higher fertilizer prices are also expected to have supported the company’s first-quarter performance. Strong demand and supply tightness have led to an uptick in fertilizer prices, with phosphate prices seeing a notable increase. Prices were driven by solid agricultural demand in major markets, China’s export restrictions, U.S. tariffs and higher costs of inputs. The upward momentum in fertilizer prices continues this year.
Our estimate for the average selling price for the Phosphate unit is pegged at $653 per ton, indicating a 3.3% year over year increase. The same for the Potash unit stands at $260 per ton, suggesting an 11% year over year rise.
Mosaic uses sulfur and ammonia as key inputs for the production of phosphate. Supply disruptions contributed to the rise in prices of both sulfur and ammonia last year. Plant shutdowns and maintenance led to a tight supply of these raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, pushed up their prices. Higher raw material costs led to an increase in the company’s production costs.
The impacts of raw material inflation are likely to reflect in the company’s margins in the first quarter. MOS has witnessed a sharp increase in sulfur price since late 2025, which is expected to have weighed on phosphate margins in the first quarter.
Mosaic, last month, announced that it will idle its Araxa Mining and Chemical Complex and suspend mining operations at the Patrocínio Complex in Brazil as part of a strategic effort to streamline operations and improve cost efficiency. The company expects these actions to reduce its annual phosphate production at Mosaic Fertilizantes by approximately 1 million tons, reflecting a meaningful decline in Brazilian output. Mosaic intends to pursue the sale of its Araxa assets, signaling a broader portfolio optimization strategy focused on higher-return operations.
The company anticipates a pre-tax charge of $350-$400 million for the first quarter of 2026, including $275 million to $300 million in asset impairments and the remainder related to severance and contract termination costs. Some impacts of these charges are expected to reflect on MOS’s first-quarter results.
The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise
The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote
What Our Model Unveils for MOS Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is -7.50%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 20 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC - Free Report) , expected to release earnings on May 21, has an Earnings ESP of +15.23% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The consensus estimate for LAC’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 7 cents.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM - Free Report) , scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +7.44% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The consensus mark for WPM’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.15.
Barrick Mining Corporation (B - Free Report) , slated to release earnings on May 11, has an Earnings ESP of +0.56%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 74 cents. B currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.