Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO Quick QuoteNVO - Free Report) have surged 21.3% over the past month, driven by stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2026 results and favorable regulatory developments. The company’s growth continues to be powered by its semaglutide-based portfolio, including Ozempic and Rybelsus for type II diabetes (T2D), and Wegovy for chronic weight management. Strong demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, along with an encouraging early launch contribution from the Wegovy pill, helped Novo Nordisk comfortably beat earnings and revenue expectations in the first quarter. Together, these products generated DKK 63.25 billion, accounting for nearly 65% of total quarterly revenues.

Investor sentiment also improved after Novo Nordisk modestly raised its 2026 outlook, signaling that management may be regaining control following months of slowing-growth concerns. The company now expects adjusted sales and operating profit to decline 4-12% at CER in 2026 versus its earlier forecast of a 5-13% decline, supported by rising GLP-1 demand, especially in obesity care, broader treatment adoption and continued Wegovy launches in new markets. However, visibility remains clouded by pricing pressure in the United States, weaker injectable GLP-1 prescription trends, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage and intensifying competition from Eli Lilly (LLY Quick QuoteLLY - Free Report) . Additional risks include the MFN pricing agreement, gradual semaglutide exclusivity losses in certain markets and elevated spending on R&D, manufacturing and commercial expansion.

To strengthen its competitive position, Novo Nordisk is rapidly expanding its product portfolio and label opportunities. Novo Nordisk also continues to advance multiple next-generation obesity and diabetes candidates to reinforce its long-term growth outlook. Let's delve deeper to better understand NVO’s key strengths against its near-term challenges.

Semaglutide — Still NVO’s Primary Top-Line Driver

Novo Nordisk’s success has been driven by the sales of Ozempic, Rybelsus and Wegovy. The company boasts one of the industry's broadest diabetes and obesity care portfolios.

Ozempic and Wegovy are the major revenue drivers. Novo Nordisk is expanding access to Wegovy through broader distribution and partnerships with major U.S. pharmacies, telehealth providers and proprietary and third-party platforms to ensure patients can obtain authentic, FDA-approved treatments. This has largely mitigated the compounded alternatives problem in 2026.

Novo Nordisk is expanding semaglutide's reach through new indications. Wegovy injection is now approved for reducing major cardiovascular events, easing HFpEF symptoms and relieving osteoarthritis-related knee pain in obesity. NVO has also secured approval of oral Wegovy — the first GLP-1 therapy in pill form for weight management — in the United States and was launched in early 2026.

In April, the company reported positive late-stage data for oral semaglutide in children and adolescents with T2D and recently secured FDA approval for oral Ozempic for adults with T2D, with a U.S. launch expected soon. Novo Nordisk also plans to pursue U.S. and EU label expansions for Rybelsus and oral Ozempic in pediatric T2D later this year. The rollout of oral Ozempic alongside oral Wegovy could improve treatment convenience, adherence and patient access.

Rybelsus’ label in the United States and the EU has been expanded to include cardiovascular benefits in T2D patients. A 7.2 mg Wegovy dose, showing up to 25% weight loss in the STEP UP study, has been approved in the EU and the United States. Label expansion is also being sought for Ozempic injection in treating peripheral artery disease in the United States and the EU.

Competition Heating Up in the Obesity Space

Competition in the obesity market remains a major overhang for NVO. Eli Lilly continues to strengthen its position in the obesity and diabetes markets, raising questions about Novo Nordisk’s ability to defend market share and maintain pricing power over time. LLY also comprehensively beat earnings and revenue estimates in the first quarter of 2026, driven by robust volume growth in its tirzepatide (GLP-1) medicines, including Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity.

Despite being on the market for just over three years, these drugs have become LLY’s key top-line drivers, together generating $12.82 billion in first-quarter revenues, which accounted for around 65% of the company’s total revenues. Eli Lilly also recently secured FDA approval of its oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related medical problems, marketed under the brand name Foundayo. The drug competes directly with NVO’s Wegovy pill.

The obesity space is also attracting new contenders to challenge the incumbents. Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics (VKTX Quick QuoteVKTX - Free Report) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR Quick QuoteGPCR - Free Report) , are advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity.  Viking plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026. Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its orally administered GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.

NVO Expands Footprint in Rare Diseases and Liver Care

Beyond its GLP-1 portfolio, Novo Nordisk is broadening its presence in rare diseases. The company has submitted a regulatory filing seeking approval for Mim8 in hemophilia A in the United States. NVO has also secured both EU and U.S. approvals for Alhemo to treat hemophilia A and B, with or without inhibitors.

The FDA has also granted accelerated approval to Wegovy as the first GLP-1 therapy to treat noncirrhotic metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis with moderate-to-advanced liver fibrosis. This marked a significant milestone in liver care by offering patients a treatment that can both halt disease activity and reverse liver damage.

NVO Focuses on Next-Generation Drugs

Novo Nordisk is also developing several next-generation obesity candidates in its pipeline, especially targeting the lucrative U.S. market. NVO has submitted a regulatory filing seeking the approval of CagriSema injection, a follow-up drug to Wegovy, for obesity. It is also gearing up to launch a dedicated late-stage program evaluating cagrilintide as a monotherapy for obesity.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk’s mid-stage asset, amycretin, has shown strong weight-loss efficacy in a phase II study and is slated to enter phase III soon. The company has bolstered its pipeline through several major collaborations and acquisition deals.

NVO also received FDA approval for Awiqli, the first once-weekly long-acting basal insulin (icodec) for adults with T2D, to be used alongside diet and exercise for glycemic control. Already approved in several global markets, the drug’s U.S. clearance further strengthens its diabetes portfolio and reinforces its position in the treatment landscape.

NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates

Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have lost 9.4% compared with the industry’s 4.5% decline. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.

NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 13.48 forward earnings, which is lower than 16.40 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.

NVO Stock Valuation

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Earnings estimates for 2026 have improved from $3.37 to $3.43 per share over the past 30 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2027 earnings estimates have decreased from $3.41 to $3.40.

NVO Estimate Movement

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Here’s How to Play NVO Stock

Despite the recent rally, near-term visibility for Novo Nordisk, currently carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), remains limited due to persistent pricing pressure, intensifying competition from Eli Lilly, weaker prescription trends for injectable GLP-1 therapies and ongoing regulatory and reimbursement uncertainties. While NVO continues to execute well operationally and has modestly improved its 2026 outlook, it still projects a decline in adjusted sales and operating profit this year. Given these headwinds, the stock may remain volatile in the short to medium term, making it less attractive for investors seeking near-term upside until there is greater clarity on market-share trends, pricing dynamics and the long-term competitive positioning of its obesity franchise. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

That said, long-term investors should continue to view Novo Nordisk favorably given its strong fundamentals, leadership in diabetes and obesity care, expanding cardiometabolic portfolio and deep late-stage pipeline. The company continues to broaden semaglutide’s reach through new formulations and label expansions while advancing next-generation obesity and rare disease candidates that could support future growth. Investors already holding the stock may benefit from staying invested for long-term wealth creation, while those looking to initiate positions could consider accumulating shares gradually during periods of weakness, particularly given the stock’s current valuation discount relative to historical levels.