Global commercial insurance is in a soft market phase. Rates fell 5% in the first quarter of 2026, followed by 6% in the second, marking eight consecutive quarterly declines. This is a sharp reversal from the 22% increase recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. 

Property has led the softening, with global rates down 12% in the last quarter, as abundant capacity and reinsurer competition let buyers negotiate on both cost and program structure.

However, the clear outlier is casualty. While every other major line has softened, U.S. casualty rates continued rising (rates rose 7% in the second quarter), driven by loss severity and litigation pressure. 

In this backdrop, The Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV Quick QuoteTRV - Free Report) , Universal Insurance Holdings (UVE Quick QuoteUVE - Free Report) , American Integrity Insurance Group (AII Quick QuoteAII - Free Report) and United Fire Group (UFCS Quick QuoteUFCS - Free Report) stand tall to weather the odds.

What is Driving the Softening?

Strong insurer profits, surplus capital, lower reinsurance costs and higher investment returns have intensified competition. Insurers are offering broader coverage, more flexible terms and lower deductibles alongside reduced prices — a sign of a market with more capacity than demand can absorb.

Overall commercial rates fell 16% in IMEA and 13% in the Pacific.

What Lies Ahead?

A major catastrophe could tighten property capacity, while persistent U.S. liability losses could sustain casualty pricing pressure. For non-life insurers, careful risk selection and sound casualty reserves will matter more as premium growth slows. Geographic diversification and brokerage businesses may provide some resilience, while investment income can support earnings. 

The Federal Reserve’s recent 25-basis-point rate increase (hinted at one more this year) may help investment income, but underwriting discipline remains the key differentiator.

Top Picks

With the help of our Zacks Stock Screener, we have identified the best bets. The shortlisted stocks carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or #2 (Buy). Each has rallied more than 20% year to date and has a favorable Value Score.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has witnessed northbound revision in the past 60 days. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

Based in New York, NY, Travelers Companies remains a leading writer of automobile and homeowners insurance and a major U.S. commercial property and casualty carrier. A broad product portfolio, high retention rate, pricing gains, positive renewal rate changes, strong capital position, inorganic growth and prudent underwriting practices position Travelers well. Continued technology investment, refined pricing and segmentation, a high-quality fixed-income portfolio and consistent capital returns should sustain earnings growth and shareholder value. However, weather volatility, loss-cost inflation, reinsurance expenses and changing pricing conditions remain risks for this Zacks Rank #2 insurer. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 3% and 0.8% north, respectively, in the past 60 days. It is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book value of 2.27X and has a Value Score of B. It has a beta of 0.44. Shares have gained 24.8% year to date.

Headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, FL. Universal Insurance Holdings is a vertically integrated insurance holding company. Its wholly owned insurance subsidiaries, UPCIC and APPCIC, are principally engaged in the property and casualty insurance business.  Universal Insurance should benefit from Florida’s post-reform claims environment, which is lowering loss costs and litigation exposure. Disciplined market selection and rate-focused underwriting support measured growth across Florida and other states. However, Florida remains the dominant source of catastrophe risk, and multiple severe events could disrupt earnings and capital deployment of this Zacks Rank #2 company.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 4.8% and 1.1% north, respectively, in the past 60 days. It is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book value of 1.86X and has a Value Score of A. It has a beta of 0.72. Shares have gained 27.3% year to date.

American Integrity Insurance Group, headquartered in Tampa, FL, operates as an insurance company in the United States. American Integrity’s performance is being driven by rapid voluntary-policy growth, particularly in Florida’s Tri-County region, middle-aged homes and expansion markets. The company appears well-positioned for profitable long-term growth, supported by geographic expansion, disciplined risk selection, Florida’s insurance reforms and lower catastrophe-reinsurance pricing. However, its heavy Florida exposure and vulnerability to hurricanes could make earnings volatile and temper the consistency of that growth. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 40% and 5.4% north, respectively, in the past 60 days. Its expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 8%. The stock currently has a P/B ratio of 1.32. It has a Value Score of A. Its shares have gained 24.6% year to date and sports a Zacks Rank #1.

Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, IA, United Fire Group engages in writing property and casualty insurance in the United States. With a portfolio offering a wide range of products, including property, casualty, commercial lines, specialty lines and surety bonds, United Fire Group has a strong presence in the Midwestern U.S. This also exposes the insurer to geographic concentration. Core commercial new business production is growing as small businesses, construction, and the middle market are collectively contributing. Prudent pricing and risk selection, stable retention and higher new business should drive premiums. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 and 2027 earnings has moved 2.5% and 5% north, respectively, in the past 60 days. It has a beta of 0.52. The stock currently has a P/B ratio of 1.41. It has a Value Score of A. Its shares have gained 47.7% year to date and sports a Zacks Rank #1.