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Novo vs. Pfizer: Which Large Drugmaker Offers Better Growth Prospects?
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Key Takeaways
Pfizer is rebuilding growth through oncology, new launches, acquisitions and its emerging obesity portfolio.
NVO's semaglutide franchise remains strong, but competition, pricing pressure and slower 2026 growth weigh.
PFE faces patent expirations, yet expects its pipeline and newer products to support growth from 2029 onward.
Novo (NVO - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) are both pharmaceutical giants based in Denmark and the United States, respectively, with broad portfolios spanning major therapeutic areas. Novo is widely recognized for its leadership in diabetes and obesity, with its semaglutide franchise marketed under the Ozempic and Rybelsus brands for type II diabetes (T2D) and Wegovy for chronic weight management. The company is also expanding its obesity offering with oral formulations, seeking to broaden its reach in the fast-growing weight-loss market.
Pfizer, meanwhile, has traditionally maintained significant strength across oncology, vaccines, inflammation and immunology, rare diseases and other therapeutic areas. However, a strategic shift has brought Pfizer into much closer comparison with Novo. Pfizer’s 2025 acquisition of Metsera added a promising obesity and cardiometabolic portfolio, giving it another potential growth avenue.
With both companies navigating important portfolio transitions but facing different growth opportunities and challenges, which large-cap stock presents a better investment opportunity right now? Let’s dive into their fundamentals, growth outlook and potential challenges to make an informed comparison.
The Case for NVO Stock
Novo has seen explosive success with its GLP-1 medicines, Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic and Rybelsus for T2D.
At the same time, semaglutide-based medicines continue to demonstrate benefits beyond blood sugar control and weight loss, including reducing cardiovascular (CV) risk and improving kidney disease outcomes. These additional indications could significantly expand the addressable market for Novo's therapies over time.
Novo has also expanded its semaglutide franchise with Wegovy pill, a once-daily oral formulation for chronic weight management, which received FDA approval in late 2025 and subsequently launched in the United States in January 2026. The product is also approved in the EU, providing Novo with another avenue to expand its presence in the growing obesity market. In the first half of 2026, total reported Obesity care sales increased 24% at constant exchange rates, driven by higher sales across the Wegovy portfolio, including incremental sales from the newly launched Wegovy pill. The Ozempic pill has also been launched in the United States, further expanding Novo’s oral semaglutide offering.
Beyond its existing products, Novo continues to invest heavily in next-generation obesity and metabolic disease therapies. The most advanced candidate in Novo’s pipeline is CagriSema injection, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analog, cagrilintide and semaglutide. The company filed a new drug application with the FDA in December 2025 for CagriSema to treat obesity. A decision is expected in the fourth quarter. Another key candidate for T2D and obesity is zenagamtide (formerly known as amycretin), a novel long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, in phase III.
Novo is also seeking to diversify beyond its core cardiometabolic franchise by expanding its Rare Disease portfolio. Frehemgo for hemophilia A and Sogroya for short-stature indications are currently under regulatory review in the EU. Meanwhile, etavopivat, undergoing late-stage development for sickle cell disease and thalassemia, could provide another long-term growth driver for the Rare Disease business.
However, after years of exceptional stock performance, shares have come under pressure amid intensifying competition and concerns about the company’s next-generation pipeline. Investors are increasingly focused on Novo’s heavy reliance on its semaglutide franchise and the approaching patent expiry of key products — Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus — in the early 2030s, which could eventually expose the company to generic competition and pressure its revenues.
The biggest challenge facing Novo is the rapid rise of Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) in the obesity market. Lilly's Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity have previously demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy in clinical studies, allowing the company to steadily gain market share. Despite being on the market for a shorter duration, these drugs have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. Lilly has also secured FDA approval of its oral GLP-1 drug, Foundayo (orforglipron), for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related medical problems. The drug competes directly with NVO’s Wegovy pill. Mixed clinical results from some of NVO’s next-generation obesity programs have also added to investor concerns about its future growth prospects.
Although Novo raised its 2026 guidance following both its first- and second-quarter results, its outlook remains challenging, with the company still expecting adjusted sales and operating profit to decline 0% to 6% at constant exchange rates. Pricing pressure in the United States, slower growth momentum of injectable GLP-1 drugs, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage, and intensifying competition continue to create significant operational and executional hurdles.
The Case for PFE Stock
Pfizer's business mix has changed significantly over the past few years. During the pandemic, the company became heavily dependent on COVID-19 products. However, the company is gradually diversifying its portfolio through a combination of internal product launches like Abrysvo, Zavzpret, Elrexfio, Hympavzi, Litfulo and others, strategic acquisitions like Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven and the continued growth of several established brands like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth. Reflecting this trend, sales from these products increased 22% operationally in the first quarter of 2026 and 18% in the second quarter.
Pfizer is one of the world’s leading oncology drugmakers with a broad portfolio of marketed cancer therapies as well as a deep oncology pipeline. Its oncology revenues grew 5% in the first half of 2026, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer considers Padcev to be a potential growth driver in the oncology segment and plans to invest in this asset.
The company is rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Pfizer plans an extensive phase III program for berobenatide, its monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist added from last year’s Metsera acquisition. Pfizer plans 10 phase III studies for berobenatide for obesity and obesity-related comorbidities, including knee osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea. Three phase III studies on berobenatide have already begun. Pfizer is targeting the first of a series of potential approvals for berobenatide in 2028.
A key candidate in its oncology pipeline is PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025. Pfizer has initiated nine studies, including two pivotal phase III studies for PF-08634404 in first-line metastatic colorectal cancer and first-line NSCLC. Pfizer aims to establish PF-08634404 as a potential backbone therapy across multiple tumor types. By 2030, Pfizer expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer offers one of the highest dividend yields in the sector.
The company faces a significant patent cliff later this decade. Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) cliff in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.1 billion in 2026. Sales of its COVID products also continue to decline.
Pfizer’s revenue guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth.
Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects a high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years, starting from year-end 2028. Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products, along with a strong pipeline, to help it return to growth from 2029 onward.
How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & PFE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo’s 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of 2.79% and 20.59%, respectively. NVO’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending upward over the past 60 days.
NVO Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year decrease of 2.45% and 11.49%, respectively. PFE’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending upward over the past 60 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & PFE
Year to date, shares of NVO have lost 23.9%, while those of PFE have gained 15.4%. In comparison, the industry has appreciated 13.3%, as seen in the chart below.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, Novo is more expensive than Pfizer, going by the price/earnings ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 11.23 times forward earnings, higher than 9.72 for PFE.
However, Pfizer currently appears better positioned, supported by a mix of product diversification, pipeline opportunities and a more favorable valuation. Novo continues to face intensifying competition from Eli Lilly in obesity, pricing pressure in the United States and uncertainty around some next-generation programs. Pfizer, meanwhile, is seeing growth from recently launched and acquired products, has a strong oncology franchise and is building new opportunities in obesity. Its cost-reduction efforts and improving R&D productivity could also support earnings growth, while the stock trades at a lower forward P/E than Novo.
Novo still has meaningful long-term potential from CagriSema, zenagamtide and its expanding Rare Disease portfolio. However, these opportunities need to offset slowing momentum in its core GLP-1 business, with the company expecting sales and operating profit to decline in 2026. Pfizer also faces a significant patent cliff and limited near-term revenue growth, but its recently launched products and pipeline are expected to support a return to growth from 2029. Overall, PFE’s broader product base, growth prospects and lower valuation tilt the balance in its favor.
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Novo vs. Pfizer: Which Large Drugmaker Offers Better Growth Prospects?
Key Takeaways
Novo (NVO - Free Report) and Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) are both pharmaceutical giants based in Denmark and the United States, respectively, with broad portfolios spanning major therapeutic areas. Novo is widely recognized for its leadership in diabetes and obesity, with its semaglutide franchise marketed under the Ozempic and Rybelsus brands for type II diabetes (T2D) and Wegovy for chronic weight management. The company is also expanding its obesity offering with oral formulations, seeking to broaden its reach in the fast-growing weight-loss market.
Pfizer, meanwhile, has traditionally maintained significant strength across oncology, vaccines, inflammation and immunology, rare diseases and other therapeutic areas. However, a strategic shift has brought Pfizer into much closer comparison with Novo. Pfizer’s 2025 acquisition of Metsera added a promising obesity and cardiometabolic portfolio, giving it another potential growth avenue.
With both companies navigating important portfolio transitions but facing different growth opportunities and challenges, which large-cap stock presents a better investment opportunity right now? Let’s dive into their fundamentals, growth outlook and potential challenges to make an informed comparison.
The Case for NVO Stock
Novo has seen explosive success with its GLP-1 medicines, Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic and Rybelsus for T2D.
At the same time, semaglutide-based medicines continue to demonstrate benefits beyond blood sugar control and weight loss, including reducing cardiovascular (CV) risk and improving kidney disease outcomes. These additional indications could significantly expand the addressable market for Novo's therapies over time.
Novo has also expanded its semaglutide franchise with Wegovy pill, a once-daily oral formulation for chronic weight management, which received FDA approval in late 2025 and subsequently launched in the United States in January 2026. The product is also approved in the EU, providing Novo with another avenue to expand its presence in the growing obesity market. In the first half of 2026, total reported Obesity care sales increased 24% at constant exchange rates, driven by higher sales across the Wegovy portfolio, including incremental sales from the newly launched Wegovy pill. The Ozempic pill has also been launched in the United States, further expanding Novo’s oral semaglutide offering.
Beyond its existing products, Novo continues to invest heavily in next-generation obesity and metabolic disease therapies. The most advanced candidate in Novo’s pipeline is CagriSema injection, a fixed-dose combination of a long-acting amylin analog, cagrilintide and semaglutide. The company filed a new drug application with the FDA in December 2025 for CagriSema to treat obesity. A decision is expected in the fourth quarter. Another key candidate for T2D and obesity is zenagamtide (formerly known as amycretin), a novel long-acting GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist, in phase III.
Novo is also seeking to diversify beyond its core cardiometabolic franchise by expanding its Rare Disease portfolio. Frehemgo for hemophilia A and Sogroya for short-stature indications are currently under regulatory review in the EU. Meanwhile, etavopivat, undergoing late-stage development for sickle cell disease and thalassemia, could provide another long-term growth driver for the Rare Disease business.
However, after years of exceptional stock performance, shares have come under pressure amid intensifying competition and concerns about the company’s next-generation pipeline. Investors are increasingly focused on Novo’s heavy reliance on its semaglutide franchise and the approaching patent expiry of key products — Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus — in the early 2030s, which could eventually expose the company to generic competition and pressure its revenues.
The biggest challenge facing Novo is the rapid rise of Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) in the obesity market. Lilly's Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity have previously demonstrated superior weight-loss efficacy in clinical studies, allowing the company to steadily gain market share. Despite being on the market for a shorter duration, these drugs have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. Lilly has also secured FDA approval of its oral GLP-1 drug, Foundayo (orforglipron), for adults with obesity or overweight with weight-related medical problems. The drug competes directly with NVO’s Wegovy pill. Mixed clinical results from some of NVO’s next-generation obesity programs have also added to investor concerns about its future growth prospects.
Although Novo raised its 2026 guidance following both its first- and second-quarter results, its outlook remains challenging, with the company still expecting adjusted sales and operating profit to decline 0% to 6% at constant exchange rates. Pricing pressure in the United States, slower growth momentum of injectable GLP-1 drugs, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage, and intensifying competition continue to create significant operational and executional hurdles.
The Case for PFE Stock
Pfizer's business mix has changed significantly over the past few years. During the pandemic, the company became heavily dependent on COVID-19 products. However, the company is gradually diversifying its portfolio through a combination of internal product launches like Abrysvo, Zavzpret, Elrexfio, Hympavzi, Litfulo and others, strategic acquisitions like Seagen, Metsera and Biohaven and the continued growth of several established brands like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis.
Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products to record continued double-digit growth. Reflecting this trend, sales from these products increased 22% operationally in the first quarter of 2026 and 18% in the second quarter.
Pfizer is one of the world’s leading oncology drugmakers with a broad portfolio of marketed cancer therapies as well as a deep oncology pipeline. Its oncology revenues grew 5% in the first half of 2026, driven by drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev. Pfizer considers Padcev to be a potential growth driver in the oncology segment and plans to invest in this asset.
The company is rebuilding its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth in 2028 and beyond. Pfizer plans an extensive phase III program for berobenatide, its monthly GLP-1 receptor agonist added from last year’s Metsera acquisition. Pfizer plans 10 phase III studies for berobenatide for obesity and obesity-related comorbidities, including knee osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea. Three phase III studies on berobenatide have already begun. Pfizer is targeting the first of a series of potential approvals for berobenatide in 2028.
A key candidate in its oncology pipeline is PF-08634404, a dual PD-1/VEGF inhibitor in-licensed from Chinese biotech 3SBio in 2025. Pfizer has initiated nine studies, including two pivotal phase III studies for PF-08634404 in first-line metastatic colorectal cancer and first-line NSCLC. Pfizer aims to establish PF-08634404 as a potential backbone therapy across multiple tumor types. By 2030, Pfizer expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.
Pfizer’s significant cost reduction and efforts to improve R&D productivity measures are also driving profit growth. Pfizer offers one of the highest dividend yields in the sector.
The company faces a significant patent cliff later this decade. Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) cliff in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.1 billion in 2026. Sales of its COVID products also continue to decline.
Pfizer’s revenue guidance for 2026 indicates mostly flat to slightly negative year-over-year growth.
Although Pfizer’s 2026 sales guidance indicates minimal growth, the company expects a high single-digit revenue CAGR for five years, starting from year-end 2028. Pfizer expects its recently launched and acquired products, along with a strong pipeline, to help it return to growth from 2029 onward.
How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & PFE?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo’s 2026 sales and earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year decline of 2.79% and 20.59%, respectively. NVO’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending upward over the past 60 days.
NVO Estimate Movement
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year decrease of 2.45% and 11.49%, respectively. PFE’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been trending upward over the past 60 days.
PFE Estimate Movement
Price Performance and Valuation of NVO & PFE
Year to date, shares of NVO have lost 23.9%, while those of PFE have gained 15.4%. In comparison, the industry has appreciated 13.3%, as seen in the chart below.
From a valuation standpoint, Novo is more expensive than Pfizer, going by the price/earnings ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 11.23 times forward earnings, higher than 9.72 for PFE.
NVO vs. PFE: Which Stock Holds the Edge?
Novo and Pfizer carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each at present, which makes choosing one stock a difficult task. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
However, Pfizer currently appears better positioned, supported by a mix of product diversification, pipeline opportunities and a more favorable valuation. Novo continues to face intensifying competition from Eli Lilly in obesity, pricing pressure in the United States and uncertainty around some next-generation programs. Pfizer, meanwhile, is seeing growth from recently launched and acquired products, has a strong oncology franchise and is building new opportunities in obesity. Its cost-reduction efforts and improving R&D productivity could also support earnings growth, while the stock trades at a lower forward P/E than Novo.
Novo still has meaningful long-term potential from CagriSema, zenagamtide and its expanding Rare Disease portfolio. However, these opportunities need to offset slowing momentum in its core GLP-1 business, with the company expecting sales and operating profit to decline in 2026. Pfizer also faces a significant patent cliff and limited near-term revenue growth, but its recently launched products and pipeline are expected to support a return to growth from 2029. Overall, PFE’s broader product base, growth prospects and lower valuation tilt the balance in its favor.