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American Airlines Stock to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Key Takeaways
American Airlines is expected to report a Q3 loss of 28 cents per share despite solid revenue growth.
AAL's Q3 revenues are projected to rise 18.35% to $16.20 billion, aided by strong bookings and demand.
Higher fuel, labor and airport costs may weigh on American Airlines' Q3 earnings,
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026results on Oct. 22, before market open.
American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 97.57%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q3 Performance
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2026 loss has been revised downward by more than 100% in the past 60 days to 28 cents per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a downside of 64.71% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guidance between a loss of 70 cents and a loss of 10 cents per share.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sharply raised oil prices. This has been naturally hurting the bottom line of airlines because fuel expenses represent a key input cost for airlines. With most U.S. carriers having abandoned fuel hedging strategies, such an oil supply disruption has left them fully exposed to price spikes. The company’s outlook assumes an average fuel cost of $3.75 per gallon for the third quarter.
Escalated labor and airport costs are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. AAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 18.8% in third-quarter 2026 from third-quarter 2025 actuals.
Management expects third-quarter cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, special items and profit sharing, to rise 2.5-4.5%. High debt remains a concern.
Despite the sharp rise in jet fuel prices, solid bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the September quarter. American Airlines continues to broaden its network while focusing on profitable hub growth. Renegotiated agency contracts and restored distribution relationships are helping American Airlines regain higher-value customers. Overall, AAL continues to benefit from network optimization, premium demand, corporate recovery, loyalty growth and customer investments, supporting durable revenue gains and long-term earnings recovery prospects.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $16.20 billion, indicating 18.35% growth year over year. Management anticipates third-quarter 2026 revenues to increase 16% to 19% year over year, with capacity projected to surge 3-5% year over year. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates an 18.4% increase from third-quarter 2025 actual.
What Our Model Says About AAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -2.66% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of 15 cents per share (excluding 4 cents from non-recurring items), down 84.2% year over year but well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. The result represented a 400% earnings surprise.
Operating revenues rose 16.3% to a record $16.74 billion and surpassed the consensus mark of $16.70 billion by 0.2%. Revenue growth was strong across all entities and cabins, with premium, Main Cabin, domestic and international all increasing meaningfully year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile increased 10.3%.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
ODFL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.63% over the past 60 days. ODFL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 6.71%.
Kirby Corporation (KEX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KEX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.51% to $1.96 per share over the past 60 days. KEX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and met the mark on the other occasion. The average beat is 2.86%.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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American Airlines Stock to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Key Takeaways
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026results on Oct. 22, before market open.
American Airlines has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), delivering an average beat of 97.57%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for American Airlines this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced AAL’s Q3 Performance
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2026 loss has been revised downward by more than 100% in the past 60 days to 28 cents per share. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a downside of 64.71% from the year-ago actual. The consensus estimate lies within the company-provided guidance between a loss of 70 cents and a loss of 10 cents per share.
We expect high fuel costs to have dented AAL’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sharply raised oil prices. This has been naturally hurting the bottom line of airlines because fuel expenses represent a key input cost for airlines. With most U.S. carriers having abandoned fuel hedging strategies, such an oil supply disruption has left them fully exposed to price spikes. The company’s outlook assumes an average fuel cost of $3.75 per gallon for the third quarter.
Escalated labor and airport costs are likely to have negatively impacted the company’s bottom-line performance in the September quarter. AAL expects to continue experiencing increased cost pressure from the labor agreements and deals inked with the pilots. We expect operating costs to increase 18.8% in third-quarter 2026 from third-quarter 2025 actuals.
Management expects third-quarter cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, special items and profit sharing, to rise 2.5-4.5%. High debt remains a concern.
Despite the sharp rise in jet fuel prices, solid bookings are likely to have aided AAL’s top-line performance in the September quarter. American Airlines continues to broaden its network while focusing on profitable hub growth. Renegotiated agency contracts and restored distribution relationships are helping American Airlines regain higher-value customers. Overall, AAL continues to benefit from network optimization, premium demand, corporate recovery, loyalty growth and customer investments, supporting durable revenue gains and long-term earnings recovery prospects.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AAL’s third-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $16.20 billion, indicating 18.35% growth year over year. Management anticipates third-quarter 2026 revenues to increase 16% to 19% year over year, with capacity projected to surge 3-5% year over year. Our estimate for passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter indicates an 18.4% increase from third-quarter 2025 actual.
What Our Model Says About AAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for American Airlines this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
American Airlines has an Earnings ESP of -2.66% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
American Airlines Group Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
American Airlines Group Inc. price-eps-surprise | American Airlines Group Inc. Quote
Highlights of AAL’s Q2 Earnings
American Airlines reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of 15 cents per share (excluding 4 cents from non-recurring items), down 84.2% year over year but well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. The result represented a 400% earnings surprise.
Operating revenues rose 16.3% to a record $16.74 billion and surpassed the consensus mark of $16.70 billion by 0.2%. Revenue growth was strong across all entities and cabins, with premium, Main Cabin, domestic and international all increasing meaningfully year over year. Total revenue per available seat mile increased 10.3%.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
ODFL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.63% over the past 60 days. ODFL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with the average beat being 6.71%.
Kirby Corporation (KEX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. KEX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 28.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 0.51% to $1.96 per share over the past 60 days. KEX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and met the mark on the other occasion. The average beat is 2.86%.