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Canadian Natural to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?
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Key Takeaways
Canadian Natural is set to report Q3 earnings on Nov. 5, with EPS estimated at $1.05 on $8.3B in revenues.
Higher production guidance, strong Jackfish output and acquired asset volumes may support CNQ's Q3 earnings.
Softer synthetic crude pricing, planned maintenance and volatile commodity prices may pressure CNQ's profits.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.05 per share on revenues of $8.3 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of CNQ’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company’s earnings beat the consensus mark and increased from 51 cents per share in the year-ago quarter, backed by strong operational performance and higher realized oil and NGL prices. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.58, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43. Total revenues of $10.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.2 billion. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 12.9%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 7.9% downward in the past 30 days. However, the estimated figure indicates a 69.4% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 20% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q3 Results
Canadian Natural’s upwardly revised 2026 production guidance, strong output from Jackfish and higher volumes from acquired assets are likely to support earnings in the quarter to be reported. Continued operating efficiencies, potential cost savings of 10% or more at Peace River and resilient synthetic crude pricing may further strengthen profitability.
On the bearish side, Canadian Natural faces several challenges that could weigh on its earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. Management expects synthetic crude oil pricing to moderate from the second quarter's premium of $8.37 per barrel over WTI to near parity or a modest premium, potentially reducing realized prices and profitability. The company also indicated that planned maintenance would extend through the third quarter into the early fourth quarter, potentially constraining production and increasing expenses. Volatile commodity prices could further pressure cash flow despite operational improvements. Additionally, CNQ's substantial capital expenditure program of approximately C$6 billion for 2026 may strain free cash flow if commodity prices weaken, raising the possibility of an earnings miss.
What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?
Our proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +48.76% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2026 revenues indicates 19.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.4 billion, the company’s shares have surged 132.7% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.94% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. PAA is slated to release earnings on Nov. 6.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAA’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 12.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $18.7 billion, the company’s shares have gained 57.4% in a year.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.14% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 9.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Occidental Petroleum’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 208.1% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $64 billion, OXY’s shares have rallied 48.8% in a year.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
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Canadian Natural to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?
Key Takeaways
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.05 per share on revenues of $8.3 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of CNQ’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company’s earnings beat the consensus mark and increased from 51 cents per share in the year-ago quarter, backed by strong operational performance and higher realized oil and NGL prices. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.58, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43. Total revenues of $10.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.2 billion. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 12.9%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote
Trend in CNQ’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 7.9% downward in the past 30 days. However, the estimated figure indicates a 69.4% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 20% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q3 Results
Canadian Natural’s upwardly revised 2026 production guidance, strong output from Jackfish and higher volumes from acquired assets are likely to support earnings in the quarter to be reported. Continued operating efficiencies, potential cost savings of 10% or more at Peace River and resilient synthetic crude pricing may further strengthen profitability.
On the bearish side, Canadian Natural faces several challenges that could weigh on its earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. Management expects synthetic crude oil pricing to moderate from the second quarter's premium of $8.37 per barrel over WTI to near parity or a modest premium, potentially reducing realized prices and profitability. The company also indicated that planned maintenance would extend through the third quarter into the early fourth quarter, potentially constraining production and increasing expenses. Volatile commodity prices could further pressure cash flow despite operational improvements. Additionally, CNQ's substantial capital expenditure program of approximately C$6 billion for 2026 may strain free cash flow if commodity prices weaken, raising the possibility of an earnings miss.
What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?
Our proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +48.76% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2026 revenues indicates 19.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.4 billion, the company’s shares have surged 132.7% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.94% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. PAA is slated to release earnings on Nov. 6.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAA’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 12.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $18.7 billion, the company’s shares have gained 57.4% in a year.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.14% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 9.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Occidental Petroleum’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 208.1% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $64 billion, OXY’s shares have rallied 48.8% in a year.