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Avis Budget Stock Appreciates 10% Despite Earnings Miss in Q3

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Key Takeaways

  • Avis Budget stock gained 10.2% despite Q3 earnings falling 39.2% short of estimates and declining 49.1% Y/Y.
  • CAR's rental days fell 2.6%, but fleet utilization was 74% in a Q3 record, up 2 percentage points.
  • CAR expects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $165M, driven partly by stronger pricing.

Avis Budget Group (CAR - Free Report) reported disappointing third-quarter 2026 results, with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues marginally beating expectations.

Despite the earnings miss, the stock has gained 10.2% since the earnings release on Nov. 3.

CAR's earnings of $5.15 per share missed the consensus estimate of $8.47 by 39.2%. Earnings declined 49.1% from $10.11 in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues fell 2.4% year over year to $3.44 billion but surpassed the consensus estimate of $3.43 billion by 0.2%.

Weaker rental demand, particularly in August, and unfavorable revenue mix pressured results despite improved fleet utilization.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Avis Budget Group, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Avis Budget Group, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Avis Budget Group, Inc. Quote

CAR's Fleet Efficiency Gains Offset Volume Weakness

Avis Budget's total rental days declined 2.6% year over year to 48.11 million. The average rental fleet decreased 5.3% to 706,717 vehicles as management continued reducing fleet capacity in response to weaker travel demand.

Total vehicle utilization improved 2 percentage points to 74%, marking a third-quarter record. Revenues per day, excluding currency effects, increased slightly to $71.54 from $71.22 in the prior-year period. Management attributed the volume weakness primarily to softer airline passenger traffic and reduced international inbound travel.

Avis Budget's Americas Revenues & Profit Decline

Americas revenues declined 2.6% year over year to $2.55 billion. Rental days fell 2.8% to 34.82 million, while the average fleet contracted 6.5% to 510,817 vehicles. Revenues per day, excluding currency effects, increased slightly to $73.38 from $73.19.

Americas adjusted EBITDA decreased 8.3% to $365 million. Vehicle utilization improved 2.8 percentage points to 74.1%, the highest third-quarter level in two decades. However, per-unit fleet costs increased 6.8% to $330 per month, reflecting weaker used-vehicle residual values and disposition timing.

CAR's International Operations Face Cost Pressures

International revenues declined 1.6% year over year to $884 million. Rental days decreased 2.2% to 13.29 million, while the average fleet shrank 2% to 195,900 vehicles. Revenues per day, excluding currency effects, increased 1% to $66.71.

International adjusted EBITDA fell 5.3% to $180 million. Vehicle utilization slipped to 73.7% from 73.9%. However, per-unit fleet costs, excluding currency effects, declined 2.1% to $279 per month as the company continued replacing older, higher-cost vehicles. Higher distribution commissions and customer acquisition costs weighed on profitability.

Avis Budget's Operating Costs Weigh on Margins

Total operating expenses increased 7.1% year over year to $1.62 billion. Selling, general and administrative expenses declined 5.7% to $398 million, while vehicle depreciation and lease charges decreased 1.5% to $668 million.

Vehicle interest expenses declined slightly year over year to $247 million from $248 million. Corporate interest expenses decreased to $108 million from $109 million. Adjusted EBITDA declined 8.2% to $513 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin contracting to 14.9% from 15.9%. Management cited weaker operating leverage and expenses that did not adjust quickly enough to reduced demand.

CAR's Liquidity Position & Cash Flow Improve

Avis Budget ended September with $561 million in cash and cash equivalents compared with $519 million at 2025-end. Corporate debt stood at $6.01 billion, while debt under vehicle programs totaled $18.92 billion.

Available liquidity was $866 million, supplemented by $2.5 billion in fleet funding capacity. The adjusted free cash flow for the first nine months reached $198 million, improving $750 million year over year. The company subsequently received $650 million from the Pentwater settlement and announced plans to redeem $350 million in senior notes due in 2027.

Avis Budget Targets Q4 EBITDA Recovery

CAR expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $850 million, at the lower end of its previously announced guidance range. This indicates 14% year-over-year growth over 2025.

Management anticipates fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $165 million compared with $5 million a year earlier. The improvement is expected to benefit from stronger pricing, improved fleet utilization, lower per-unit fleet costs and cost-reduction initiatives.

For the fourth quarter, per-unit fleet costs are projected between $310 and $320 per month. The full-year guidance remains unchanged at $315-$325. Management also expects low-single-digit consolidated revenue growth in the fourth quarter, supported by pricing improvements despite continued rental volume pressures.

Avis Budget carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Earnings Snapshot

Verisk Analytics (VRSK - Free Report) reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.96 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 by 2.1%. The figure increased 14% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues of $809 million topped the consensus mark of $806.8 million by 0.3% and rose 5.3% year over year.

Corpay (CPAY - Free Report) posted strong third-quarter 2026 results, with earnings and revenues surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

CPAY registered adjusted earnings per share of $7.54, rising 32% year over year and beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.19 by 4.9%. Revenues increased 18% to $1.38 billion, surpassing the consensus mark of $1.36 billion by 1.7%.

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