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Starbucks' U.S. Comps Jump 7.7%: Can Traffic Momentum Last?
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Key Takeaways
Starbucks' fiscal Q4 U.S. comps rose 7.7%, fueled by 2.4% transaction growth and a 5.2% higher ticket.
Green Apron Service helped more than 80% of North American company-operated coffeehouses post positive comps.
Starbucks sees 4% North America comps growth in fiscal 2027, but closures lifted Q4 comps by about 200 bps.
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is witnessing a strong recovery in its U.S. business, supported by improving customer traffic, enhanced operational execution and its Back to Starbucks strategy. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 U.S. comparable sales increased 7.7% year over year, reversing a 0.3% decline in the prior-year quarter. Growth reflected a 2.4% increase in transactions and a 5.2% rise in average ticket. For fiscal 2026, U.S. comps advanced 6.5%, driven by 3.4% transaction growth.
The recovery reflects progress in Starbucks' Green Apron Service initiative, which emphasizes faster service, improved staffing and stronger customer connections. More than 80% of North American company-operated coffeehouses generated positive comps in the fourth quarter, compared with less than 50% a year earlier. Smart Queue enhancements, improved inventory availability and stronger operational consistency have further supported customer visits.
Menu innovation and loyalty engagement remain key traffic drivers. Strong demand for Espresso, Refreshers, Matcha and food offerings continues to attract customers across dayparts. Starbucks Rewards reached a record 36 million active members, with loyalty customers leading transaction growth. Meanwhile, more than 1,700 coffeehouse uplifts completed in fiscal 2026 have contributed to improved customer traffic.
Looking ahead, management expects approximately 4% North America comparable sales growth in fiscal 2027, supported by continued service improvements, digital engagement and more than 2,000 planned coffeehouse uplifts. However, fourth-quarter comps benefited by approximately 200 basis points from store closures and sales transfers, while transaction growth moderated sequentially. With ticket growth contributing more heavily to sales gains, sustaining underlying customer traffic will be crucial to maintaining Starbucks' recovery momentum.
How Does Starbucks Compare With Rivals in Driving Customer Traffic?
While Starbucks is benefiting from improving U.S. traffic and stronger customer engagement, competitors such as McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) and Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) are also strengthening their beverage offerings, loyalty programs and operational execution to attract customers and increase visit frequency.
McDonald's is focusing on affordability, digital engagement and beverage innovation to revive customer traffic. Third-quarter 2026 U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2%, although trends improved during the quarter, turning positive in September. MCD's renewed emphasis on value meals and targeted digital offers is helping stabilize guest counts. Meanwhile, its expanding specialty beverage platform is attracting younger consumers, with beverage-inclusive transactions generating approximately 50% higher checks than the full-day average.
Dutch Bros continues to demonstrate strong customer engagement, supported by its customizable beverages, drive-thru convenience and loyalty initiatives. Third-quarter 2026 system same-shop sales increased 4.4%, while company-operated comps rose 5.4%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of customer visit growth. Dutch Rewards accounted for approximately 74% of customer visits, underscoring strong loyalty engagement. BROS is also expanding its energy beverage platform and strengthening digital ordering capabilities to encourage repeat visits.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Starbucks have gained 24.1% over the past year compared with the industry’s rise of 4.5%.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 32.44, above the industry’s average of 23.07.
SBUX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 17.3%. EPS estimates for fiscal 2027 have increased in the past seven days.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Starbucks' U.S. Comps Jump 7.7%: Can Traffic Momentum Last?
Key Takeaways
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) is witnessing a strong recovery in its U.S. business, supported by improving customer traffic, enhanced operational execution and its Back to Starbucks strategy. Fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 U.S. comparable sales increased 7.7% year over year, reversing a 0.3% decline in the prior-year quarter. Growth reflected a 2.4% increase in transactions and a 5.2% rise in average ticket. For fiscal 2026, U.S. comps advanced 6.5%, driven by 3.4% transaction growth.
The recovery reflects progress in Starbucks' Green Apron Service initiative, which emphasizes faster service, improved staffing and stronger customer connections. More than 80% of North American company-operated coffeehouses generated positive comps in the fourth quarter, compared with less than 50% a year earlier. Smart Queue enhancements, improved inventory availability and stronger operational consistency have further supported customer visits.
Menu innovation and loyalty engagement remain key traffic drivers. Strong demand for Espresso, Refreshers, Matcha and food offerings continues to attract customers across dayparts. Starbucks Rewards reached a record 36 million active members, with loyalty customers leading transaction growth. Meanwhile, more than 1,700 coffeehouse uplifts completed in fiscal 2026 have contributed to improved customer traffic.
Looking ahead, management expects approximately 4% North America comparable sales growth in fiscal 2027, supported by continued service improvements, digital engagement and more than 2,000 planned coffeehouse uplifts. However, fourth-quarter comps benefited by approximately 200 basis points from store closures and sales transfers, while transaction growth moderated sequentially. With ticket growth contributing more heavily to sales gains, sustaining underlying customer traffic will be crucial to maintaining Starbucks' recovery momentum.
How Does Starbucks Compare With Rivals in Driving Customer Traffic?
While Starbucks is benefiting from improving U.S. traffic and stronger customer engagement, competitors such as McDonald's Corporation (MCD - Free Report) and Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) are also strengthening their beverage offerings, loyalty programs and operational execution to attract customers and increase visit frequency.
McDonald's is focusing on affordability, digital engagement and beverage innovation to revive customer traffic. Third-quarter 2026 U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2%, although trends improved during the quarter, turning positive in September. MCD's renewed emphasis on value meals and targeted digital offers is helping stabilize guest counts. Meanwhile, its expanding specialty beverage platform is attracting younger consumers, with beverage-inclusive transactions generating approximately 50% higher checks than the full-day average.
Dutch Bros continues to demonstrate strong customer engagement, supported by its customizable beverages, drive-thru convenience and loyalty initiatives. Third-quarter 2026 system same-shop sales increased 4.4%, while company-operated comps rose 5.4%, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of customer visit growth. Dutch Rewards accounted for approximately 74% of customer visits, underscoring strong loyalty engagement. BROS is also expanding its energy beverage platform and strengthening digital ordering capabilities to encourage repeat visits.
SBUX’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Starbucks have gained 24.1% over the past year compared with the industry’s rise of 4.5%.
SBUX’s One-Year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, SBUX trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 32.44, above the industry’s average of 23.07.
SBUX’s P/E Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX’s fiscal 2027 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year increase of 17.3%. EPS estimates for fiscal 2027 have increased in the past seven days.
EPS Trend of SBUX Stock
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
SBUX’s Zacks Rank
SBUX stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.