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The S&P 500 and Dow Jones put in another record close on Wednesday. Helping the cause was a shockingly good 281K jobs added in the ADP Employment report (versus 213K estimate and 179K last month).
Yet going below the surface we see that both the small and mid-cap indices were down -0.5% on the day. That is odd because most markets making new highs are also displaying higher levels of risk taking whereby these smaller issues are leading the way.
What does it mean? I see three viable options.
1) This is an aberration. Investors are still in a bullish mood and the smaller, more aggressive names will be back in fashion as stocks make new highs.
2) Investors are ready to bail out of this bull market for a while as they did back in January and April/May. At those times we saw only modest losses in large cap names while smaller issues where brutalized.
3) #1 is the case up to 2000 and #2 is what happens afterwards. Just some investors are getting an early jump on #2.
I believe #3 is the correct answer and am prepared to act accordingly. I suggest you consider the same approach.
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