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December FOMC Preview: Rate Cut Priced In, but Tone Is Everything
If there’s one economic event investors should follow, it’s the action of central banks. Legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has never suffered a down year in more than 30 years on Wall Street, said it best when he said:
“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board…focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, December 12th at 2:00 pm EST. A half hour later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide comments and take questions from the media.
Recent Fed Funds Effective Rate History
Between 2022 and 2023, Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates aggressively to stave off high inflation, the highest that occurred in over 40 years. By late 2023, the Fed finally brought down inflation and paused any rate action. Finally, in September, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, kicking off the current easing cycle.
December FOMC: What to Expect
The options market implies a post-FOMC move of +/- 1% in the S&P 500 Index. According to the betting market Polymarket, there is a 95% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool, which uses the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices to predict the next Fed move, predicts an 89.20% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut.
Powell Commentary: What to Look For
With a 25-bps interest rate cut all but priced in, Wall Street investors will shift their focus to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Currently, there are a handful of crosscurrents that Powell will likely discuss, including a softening jobs market, how tariffs are impacting inflation, and strong GDP.
The key for investors will be to decipher whether Fed Chair Powell delivers a “dovish” or “hawkish” interest rate cut. In other words, will investors expect more interest rate cuts in early 2026? Finally, another important variable for investors to track is how the recent government shutdown will impact monetary policy moving forward.
Following FOMC, investors should monitor how rate-sensitive stocks such as Carvana, Lennar, Bank of America, Newmont Mining and the Russell 2000 Index ETF perform.
Bottom Line
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will take center stage. With a rate cut widely expected, the real story will be expectations for 2026 and how the Fed balances softening employment data with ongoing economic strength.
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Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Carvana, Lennar, Bank of America, Newmont Mining and the Russell 2000 Index ETF
For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – December 10, 2025 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Carvana (CVNA - Free Report) , Lennar (LEN - Free Report) , Bank of America (BAC - Free Report) , Newmont Mining (NEM - Free Report) and the Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM - Free Report) .
December FOMC Preview: Rate Cut Priced In, but Tone Is Everything
If there’s one economic event investors should follow, it’s the action of central banks. Legendary billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has never suffered a down year in more than 30 years on Wall Street, said it best when he said:
“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board…focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce the latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, December 12th at 2:00 pm EST. A half hour later, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide comments and take questions from the media.
Recent Fed Funds Effective Rate History
Between 2022 and 2023, Jerome Powell and the U.S. Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates aggressively to stave off high inflation, the highest that occurred in over 40 years. By late 2023, the Fed finally brought down inflation and paused any rate action. Finally, in September, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, kicking off the current easing cycle.
December FOMC: What to Expect
The options market implies a post-FOMC move of +/- 1% in the S&P 500 Index. According to the betting market Polymarket, there is a 95% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool, which uses the 30-day Fed Funds futures prices to predict the next Fed move, predicts an 89.20% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut.
Powell Commentary: What to Look For
With a 25-bps interest rate cut all but priced in, Wall Street investors will shift their focus to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. Currently, there are a handful of crosscurrents that Powell will likely discuss, including a softening jobs market, how tariffs are impacting inflation, and strong GDP.
The key for investors will be to decipher whether Fed Chair Powell delivers a “dovish” or “hawkish” interest rate cut. In other words, will investors expect more interest rate cuts in early 2026? Finally, another important variable for investors to track is how the recent government shutdown will impact monetary policy moving forward.
Following FOMC, investors should monitor how rate-sensitive stocks such as Carvana, Lennar, Bank of America, Newmont Mining and the Russell 2000 Index ETF perform.
Bottom Line
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will take center stage. With a rate cut widely expected, the real story will be expectations for 2026 and how the Fed balances softening employment data with ongoing economic strength.
Why Haven't You Looked at Zacks' Top Stocks?
Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year.
Today you can access their live picks without cost or obligation.
See Stocks Free >>
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.