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What's in the Offing for Marathon Petroleum in Q1 Earnings?
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Key Takeaways
MPC will report Q1 2026 results on May 5, with consensus EPS at 68 cents on $30.35B revenue.
MPC sees strong refining margins from 95% utilization and tight global capacity trends.
MPC renewables utilization near 70% and midstream softness may pressure earnings.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a profit of 68 cents per share on revenues of $30.35 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MPC’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of MPC’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the fourth quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator’s adjusted earnings of $4.07 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73 on stronger-than-expected Refining & Marketing segment performance and a 4.9% year-over-year decline in costs and expenses. Revenues of $33.4 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $29.6 billion.
Marathon Petroleum’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 32.7%.
This is depicted in the graph below.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 63.2% downward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 383.3% year-over-year surge. However, the top-line estimate implies a 4.7% decrease from the year-ago period’s level.
Factors to Consider Ahead of MPC’s Q1 Release
Marathon Petroleum makes money through two main segments, Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products like transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products, and gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids.
Marathon Petroleum delivered robust refining utilization of around 95% and industry-leading margin capture exceeding 110% in the prior quarter, reflecting superior commercial execution and integrated value chain advantages and the same uptick is expected to have continued in the to be reported quarter. Tight global refining capacity, coupled with steady growth in gasoline, distillate and jet fuel demand, is expected to have supported margins. MPC’s high exposure to discounted sour crude and widening differentials likely provided a significant cost advantage.
However, Marathon Petroleum’s Renewables segment is expected to operate at lower utilization (around 70%) due to planned turnaround activity, which may have pressured margins. The company’s midstream earnings could also face near-term softness due to prior asset divestitures. Any unexpected operational disruptions or weaker-than-expected demand may have limited margin capture and led to lower-than-expected earnings in the quarter to be reported.
What Does Our Model Say About MPC?
The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. This is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MPC’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +5.15%.
MPC’s Zacks Rank: MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.15% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
APA is scheduled to release earnings on May 6. APA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 48.4%. Valued at around $14.3 billion, the company’s shares have gained 162% in a year.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGY’s 2026 earnings indicates 47.5% year-over-year growth.Valuedat around $5.6 billion, the company’s shares have rallied 47.3% in a year.
Permian Resources Corporation (PR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank of 1. It is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Permian Resources’ 2026 earnings per share indicates 34.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $18.1 billion, the company’s shares have gained 82.9% in a year.
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What's in the Offing for Marathon Petroleum in Q1 Earnings?
Key Takeaways
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at a profit of 68 cents per share on revenues of $30.35 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced MPC’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of MPC’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the fourth quarter, the Findlay, OH-based downstream operator’s adjusted earnings of $4.07 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.73 on stronger-than-expected Refining & Marketing segment performance and a 4.9% year-over-year decline in costs and expenses. Revenues of $33.4 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $29.6 billion.
Marathon Petroleum’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one, delivering an average surprise of 32.7%.
This is depicted in the graph below.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Marathon Petroleum Corporation price-eps-surprise | Marathon Petroleum Corporation Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision for MPC
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has been revised 63.2% downward in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 383.3% year-over-year surge. However, the top-line estimate implies a 4.7% decrease from the year-ago period’s level.
Factors to Consider Ahead of MPC’s Q1 Release
Marathon Petroleum makes money through two main segments, Refining & Marketing and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products like transportation fuels, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products, and gathers, processes and transports natural gas and natural gas liquids.
Marathon Petroleum delivered robust refining utilization of around 95% and industry-leading margin capture exceeding 110% in the prior quarter, reflecting superior commercial execution and integrated value chain advantages and the same uptick is expected to have continued in the to be reported quarter. Tight global refining capacity, coupled with steady growth in gasoline, distillate and jet fuel demand, is expected to have supported margins. MPC’s high exposure to discounted sour crude and widening differentials likely provided a significant cost advantage.
However, Marathon Petroleum’s Renewables segment is expected to operate at lower utilization (around 70%) due to planned turnaround activity, which may have pressured margins. The company’s midstream earnings could also face near-term softness due to prior asset divestitures. Any unexpected operational disruptions or weaker-than-expected demand may have limited margin capture and led to lower-than-expected earnings in the quarter to be reported.
What Does Our Model Say About MPC?
The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Marathon Petroleum this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. This is exactly the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
MPC’s Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +5.15%.
MPC’s Zacks Rank: MPC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
APA Corporation (APA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.15% and a Zacks Rank of 1.
APA is scheduled to release earnings on May 6. APA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 48.4%. Valued at around $14.3 billion, the company’s shares have gained 162% in a year.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MGY’s 2026 earnings indicates 47.5% year-over-year growth.Valuedat around $5.6 billion, the company’s shares have rallied 47.3% in a year.
Permian Resources Corporation (PR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank of 1. It is scheduled to release earnings on May 6.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Permian Resources’ 2026 earnings per share indicates 34.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $18.1 billion, the company’s shares have gained 82.9% in a year.