What happens within this Global Week Ahead?

• Stop-start efforts by Tehran and Washington DC to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz dominate the market outlook, while 
• U.S. and Eurozone macro data should shed more light -- on the economic toll of the conflict

Elsewhere:

• Indian policymakers grapple with the oil shock fallout, too
• Colombians head to the polls, and 
• The club of trillion-dollar tech firms looks set to grow

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
 

(1) What Stocks Have Made It to the $1T Market Cap Club?

The $1 trillion market-cap club has grown again, with South Korea's SK Hynix, and U.S.-listed Micron Technology (MU Quick QuoteMU - Free Report) joining the ranks.

Led by Nvidia (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report) , now valued at more than $5 trillion, the group is dominated by companies at the center of the AI boom.

The ‌additions underline the staying power of the AI-led rally, even as the Iran war drags on and deepens the global energy shock.

Investors now face a familiar dilemma: stick with a winning trade or worry more about concentration risk.

Strong markets can be the most vulnerable if sentiment turns.

(2) On Friday, Traders Can Study the May U.S. Non-farm Jobs Report

The latest U.S. monthly jobs report will test markets — and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — with investors alert to any signs of renewed inflation pressure.

Friday's May non-farm payrolls are expected to show jobs growth slowing to 96,000 and a jobless rate of 4.3%, according to a Reuters poll.

That follows a stronger-than-expected 115,000 rise in April, pointing to a still-resilient labor market. Manufacturing and services data should offer further clues on economic momentum.

Any hint of overheating could rattle markets, with inflation concerns already driving bouts of higher bond yields.

Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2.0% target ahead of Warsh's first meeting as U.S. central bank chief later in June.

Markets now see a greater chance of a rate hike than a cut in 2026, despite President Donald Trump’s calls for easing.

(3) On Tuesday, the Eurozone’s May HICP Inflation Data Comes Out

For European Central Bank policymakers, the key question is how far higher energy prices are feeding into broader inflation.

Tuesday's Eurozone May CPI numbers should provide some answers, especially as the Middle East conflict has dragged on long enough for second-round effects to emerge.

Analysts expect annual headline inflation of 3%, but just 2.2% excluding energy and food.

The ECB looks set to raise rates by 25 basis points in June regardless, but the outlook beyond is less certain.

Money markets are pricing in at least one, possibly two further hikes this year.

Much depends on inflation.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane has warned the energy shock could prove persistent, though he noted it differs from the surge four years ago, driven by the Ukraine war and post-pandemic demand.

(4) Indian Rupee On the Ropes

The Indian rupee's slide to record lows has fueled bets for a June 5th rate hike, despite signals the Reserve Bank of India is reluctant to use monetary policy to support the currency.

The rupee briefly neared 97 per dollar on May 22 before apparent central bank intervention steadied markets.

Heavy reliance on imported oil has left India exposed to the Iran war, driving capital outflows and weighing on the currency.

While three sources told Reuters the RBI is not in a hurry to raise rates, some major banks are penciling in a June move.

Traders are split evenly between a hike and no change, with some perhaps encouraged by Sri Lanka's surprise one-percentage-point increase days ago.

(5) Colombia Votes

Colombia’s first-round vote on Sunday looks set to pave the way for a June 21st runoff.

Leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda leads the polls but appears unlikely to secure an outright win, putting the focus on who advances with him: conservative Paloma Valencia or hard-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella.

Markets will watch closely.

Cepeda promises continuity on social spending, while his rivals tout tighter fiscal policy, market-friendly incentives and a tougher security line — a message that has resonated across a region drifting right.

The peso and Ecopetrol (EC) shares will offer an immediate verdict.

With Brazil also heading towards a tight election in October between President Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, the broader theme is familiar: ideology matters less to markets than credible fiscal policy and inflation control.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Here are three Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large cap stocks, benefitting from fresh analyst earnings upgrades.

(1) Marathon Petroleum (MPC Quick QuoteMPC - Free Report) : This is a $251 a share oil & gas refining stock, with a market cap of $72.1B.

It is found in Zacks Oil & Gas-Refining industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

F12M P/E: 8.2.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Marathon Petroleum is a leading independent refiner, transporter and marketer of petroleum products.

The company came into existence following the spin-off of Marathon Oil Corp.’s refining/sales business into a separate, independent and publicly-traded entity.

Marathon Oil has also completed the acquisition of its rival Andeavor.

Marathon Petroleum operates in two segments:

Refining and Marketing: The unit's operations refineries, located in the various regions of the United States.

Marathon Petroleum through its marketing organization sells transportation fuels, asphalt and specialty products throughout the country to support commercial, industrial and retail operations.

Midstream: This unit mainly reflects Marathon Petroleum's general partner and majority limited partner interests in MPLX LP and Andeavor Logistics LP that own and operate gathering and processing assets along with crude transportation and logistics infrastructure.

(2) Lenovo Group (LNVGY Quick QuoteLNVGY - Free Report) : This is a $51 a share tech stock, with a market cap of $30.1B. 

It is found in the Zacks Computer-Micro industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

F12M P/E: 18.0.
 

Lenovo Group is a personal technology company.

The company is dedicated to building PCs and mobile internet devices. Lenovo's business is built on product innovation, a highly-efficient global supply chain and strong strategic execution.

Formed by Lenovo Group's acquisition of the former IBM Personal Computing Division, the company develops, manufactures and markets reliable, high-quality, secure and easy-to-use technology products and services.

Its product lines include legendary Think-branded commercial PCs and Idea-branded consumer PCs, as well as servers, workstations, and a family of mobile internet devices, including tablets and smart phones.

Lenovo has major research centers in Yamato, Japan; Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, China; and Raleigh, North Carolina.

Lenovo Group Limited is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong.

(3) Tapestry (TPR Quick QuoteTPR - Free Report) : This is a $145 a share Cosmetics stock, with a market cap of $28.0B.

It is found in the Zacks Retail-Apparel & Shoes industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.

F12M P/E: 20.2.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Tapestry, formerly known as Coach, is the designer and marketer of fine accessories and gifts for women and men in the United States and internationally.

The company offers lifestyle products, which include handbags, women's and men's accessories, footwear, jewelry, seasonal apparel collections, sunwear, travel bags, fragrance and watches.

Tapestry now operates under three product segments comprising Coach brand, Kate Spade & Company and Stuart Weitzman.

The Coach Brand North American regional segment includes sales to customers via North American company-owned stores, including the Internet, and sales to North American wholesale customers and distributors.

The Coach Brand International regional segment includes sales via company-operated outlets (including the Internet) and concession store-in-stores in Japan, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.
 

Key Global Macro

The major focus?

This week ends with a Friday morning U.S. nonfarm payroll print for May.

On Monday, the ISM manufacturing PMI for May rosev to 54.0 from a projected 52.7, which followed the prior month’s identical 52.7.

On Tuesday, the Euro Area’s core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for May comes out. Look for +2.4% y/y to follow the prior +2.2% y/y rate.

Broad HICP should be +3.0% y/y, in line with the prior +3.0% y/y reading.

On Wednesday, the BoJ’s Ueda gives a speech.

ADP’s private job gains looks to be +110K in May, in line with the prior +109K figure for April.

On Thursday, Euro Area retail sales come out for April. I see a +1.2% y/y prior reading.
The BoE’s Governor Bailey gives a speech.

On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls for May come out. I see a +115rK prior April reading. 
The prior U.S. household unemployment rate was 4.3%.

Conclusion

On May 22nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared earnings growth materials.

The Earnings Big Picture

The Q1 earnings season reconfirmed the steadily improving earnings outlook we have consistently highlighted in our earnings commentary.

The blockbuster earnings results from Nvidia kept the spotlight on the strong earnings power of the mega-cap Tech players in the Magnificent 7 group.

But results have been impressive across all sectors.

Most companies comfortably beat the Zacks Consensus EPS and revenue estimates and are showing accelerating earnings and revenue growth trends.

On the negative side, Q2 estimates have declined for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors.

The sectors suffering the most declines include Transportation, Autos, Consumer Discretionary, Construction, Finance, and Consumer Staples.

For calendar year 2026, total S&P 500 earnings are currently expected to be up +19.5%, compared to +13.4% earnings growth last year and +16.7% expected next year.

All 16 Zacks sectors are currently expected to enjoy positive earnings growth in 2026, a development that we haven’t seen in a very long time.

The Tech and Energy sectors are big contributors to earnings growth in 2026, with +34% and +60.5% earnings growth, respectively.

Excluding the Energy sector’s substantial contribution, 2026 earnings growth for the rest of the index would +17.6% (versus +19.5% otherwise).

Excluding the Tech sector? S&P500 index earnings would be up +12.1% in 2026.

That’s it for earnings.

Enjoy the trading week.

John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist