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A European Central Bank (ECB) meeting take center stage
Against the backdrop of a bond market selloff that has pushed borrowing costs to their highest in years — from Tokyo and Sydney to London and New York.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Bond Yields Have Been Surging, Across Regions and Maturities
Bond yields have been surging across regions and maturities, increasing borrowing costs for governments, businesses and households, and challenging lofty stock-market valuations.
There is a combination of drivers. The war in the Middle East has sent energy prices higher, lifted inflation expectations and had traders bracing for more rate hikes, sending shorter-dated yields in the U.S. and Eurozone to their highest in a few years.
Meanwhile, 10-year yields are near bigger milestones, while most major 30-year yields are around their highest in well over a decade, as traders fear years of heavy sovereign borrowing are becoming harder to finance.
Governments are watching. Last month, hoping to bring down yields, the U.S Treasury said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-dated debt. The first operation is scheduled for Wednesday.
But, while levels are dramatic, moves have been orderly, at least so far.
(2) Watching the Japanese Yen: A Big Part of the Global Debt Market Narrative
Japan is at the heart of the global debt story as the yield on its 10-year notes has risen above 3% for the first time in three decades, setting markets abuzz about the potential impact of a mass repatriation of Japanese capital from U.S., European and Australian debt markets.
What investors want to hear is whether Japan's $2 trillion pension fund, the GPIF, will shift more of its capital to domestic bonds, at the expense of stocks and overseas debt.
Government finances are in focus too, with budget requests from Japanese ministries for next fiscal year at pandemic-era levels, while the Bank of Japan could be moving to a faster pace of rate hikes, sending short-term rates surging.
The latter could finally boost the long-embattled Japanese yen. The currency strengthened nearly 3% across Wednesday and Thursday, as sentiment shifted — the sort of move only seen recently when Japanese and U.S. authorities jointly stepped into markets.
(3) U.S. CPI and PPI Data for August Come Out
Meanwhile, in the U.S., upcoming inflation reports could be the deciding factor for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this month.
Data on producer prices are due Thursday, a day before the closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect August CPI to have climbed 0.4%.
Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% annual target for several years although the prior month CPI showed just a mild rise.
Markets priced in a greater chance of a rate hike following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at its Jackson Hole conference. But Fed Funds futures suggest roughly even odds of a hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are cooling, he is inclined to argue for keeping rates steady.
Quarterly results for hyper-scaler Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) next week also could bring renewed focus on the AI trade.
(4) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Likely Hikes 25 bps
The ECB is all but certain to raise rates by another 25 basis points on Thursday — a repeat of June's move.
Policymakers won't be happy to see inflation back above 3% as energy prices rise, so for traders, the question is what happens next.
Rate-setters don't have crystal balls, and it's anyone's guess how long the Iran war lasts, so they'll have little appetite to signal what's next.
Markets continue to bet on another move by December and one more next year. But economists reckon the ECB is done for now and the sharp rise in bond yields this summer may have done some of policymakers' work for them.
Also, watch what ECB Chief Christine Lagarde says about the U.S. selling euros to buy yen.
(5) Senegal Needs an IMF Bailout
It's not just the big global bond markets where trouble is brewing.
Two years after Senegal discovered what is now known to be over $10 billion of previously unknown debt, the government is bowing to the inevitability of an IMF bailout.
The quid pro quo is that it will have to fix its debt to make it sustainable in the long run. That's not as simple as it sounds, though, especially for a country in a monetary union — just ask Athens.
Dakar, therefore, doesn't want to include any of the "local" West African CFA franc debt lent to it by the region's banks and multilaterals.
That means the rest of its debt — especially the government bonds it sold on the international capital markets — will need to take a bigger hit.
It is likely to take months for it all to become clear, but next week could see an important development.
The IMF's board is due to discuss its Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, and a change to those rules could make Senegal's situation look even worse.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large cap stocks.
(1) Hitachi (HTHIY - Free Report) : This is a $35 a share Japanese stock, with a market cap of $153.8B
It is found in the Zacks Diversified Operations industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 25.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Hitachi Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo, is one of the world's leading global electronics companies.
They manufacture and market a wide range of products, including computers, semiconductors, consumer products and power and industrial equipment.
(2) Interactive Brokers (IBKR - Free Report) : This is a $93 a share stock, with a market cap of $151.6B
It is found in Zacks Financial-Investment Bank industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 33.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. operates as an automated global electronic market maker and broker.
The company specializes in routing orders, besides executing and processing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds and mutual funds on more than 135 electronic exchanges and market centers worldwide.
In the United States, it conducts its business primarily from Greenwich and Chicago.
Across the globe, it conducts business through offices in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Hungary, India, China (Hong Kong and Shanghai), Japan, Singapore, and Australia.
The company has been working continuously to wind down its Market Making segment and focus more on the Electronic Brokerage segment.
The company strives to provide customers with advantageous execution prices and trading, risk and portfolio management tools, research facilities and investment products, all at low prices, positioning the company to achieve superior returns on investments.
(3) Siemens Energy AG (SMERY - Free Report) : This is a $34 a share stock, with a market cap of $141.6B
It is found in the Zacks Alternative Energy industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 30.4.
Siemens Energy AG is engaged in the energy technology.
The Company focuses on the design, development, manufacture and supply of products, installation and technologically advanced services principally in the renewable energy sector with a focus on wind power plants.
Siemens Energy AG is based in Germany.
Key Global Macro
Friday’s U.S. CPI data is the major macro print this short 4-day trading week.
On Monday, the U.S. celebrates the Labor Day holiday.
Japan’s GDP for Q2 comes out. The prior q/q figure was +0.3%., while the annualized figure was +1.1%. Neither are expected to change.
On Tuesday, Mainland China’s CPI for August comes out. The prior y/y number was +0.5%.
On Wednesday, there is a U.S. 10-year note auction. 4.68% is the current benchmark.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) likely movers the main refi rate to 2.65% from 2.40%. The rate on deposit facility likely moves to 2.5% from 2.25%.
On Friday, the U.S CPI data for August comes out. I see the broad CPI was +3.4% y/y in July, and the core CPI for July was +2.5%.
Conclusion
On Sept. 2nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) Although corporate earnings have trended positively over the past two years, the current momentum is truly exceptional.
Growth is not only rapid and accelerating but also widely distributed across sectors and steadily expanding.
This broad-based strength creates a highly supportive backdrop for the market.
(2) The Q2 earnings season is ‘officially’ not over yet, with roughly a dozen S&P 500 members yet to come out with their quarterly results.
But for all practical purposes, the Q2 reporting cycle is now behind us, and we are starting to shift our attention to the Q3 earnings season.
(3) For Q3-26, Zacks expects total S&P 500 earnings will increase +23.0% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
We expect 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth — and 6 sectors producing double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(4) With Conglomerates (-35.4%) and Consumer Staples (-0.1%) as the only Zacks sectors expected to have lower Q3 earnings relative to the year-earlier period, the quarter is on track to produce an impressively broad-based growth performance.
(5) Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) and Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) continue to be material contributors to the Tech sector’s growth picture. Excluding these three companies, Q3 earnings for the rest of the Tech sector would be +18.7% (versus +40.5% otherwise).
That’s it for this Global Week Ahead.
Kind Regards,
John Blank, PhD. Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Shutterstock
Bond Yields Are Surging: Global Week Ahead
Key Takeaways
What happens across this Global Week Ahead?
Against the backdrop of a bond market selloff that has pushed borrowing costs to their highest in years — from Tokyo and Sydney to London and New York.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, re-ordered for equity traders—
(1) Bond Yields Have Been Surging, Across Regions and Maturities
Bond yields have been surging across regions and maturities, increasing borrowing costs for governments, businesses and households, and challenging lofty stock-market valuations.
There is a combination of drivers. The war in the Middle East has sent energy prices higher, lifted inflation expectations and had traders bracing for more rate hikes, sending shorter-dated yields in the U.S. and Eurozone to their highest in a few years.
Meanwhile, 10-year yields are near bigger milestones, while most major 30-year yields are around their highest in well over a decade, as traders fear years of heavy sovereign borrowing are becoming harder to finance.
Governments are watching. Last month, hoping to bring down yields, the U.S Treasury said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-dated debt. The first operation is scheduled for Wednesday.
But, while levels are dramatic, moves have been orderly, at least so far.
(2) Watching the Japanese Yen: A Big Part of the Global Debt Market Narrative
Japan is at the heart of the global debt story as the yield on its 10-year notes has risen above 3% for the first time in three decades, setting markets abuzz about the potential impact of a mass repatriation of Japanese capital from U.S., European and Australian debt markets.
What investors want to hear is whether Japan's $2 trillion pension fund, the GPIF, will shift more of its capital to domestic bonds, at the expense of stocks and overseas debt.
Government finances are in focus too, with budget requests from Japanese ministries for next fiscal year at pandemic-era levels, while the Bank of Japan could be moving to a faster pace of rate hikes, sending short-term rates surging.
The latter could finally boost the long-embattled Japanese yen. The currency strengthened nearly 3% across Wednesday and Thursday, as sentiment shifted — the sort of move only seen recently when Japanese and U.S. authorities jointly stepped into markets.
(3) U.S. CPI and PPI Data for August Come Out
Meanwhile, in the U.S., upcoming inflation reports could be the deciding factor for whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this month.
Data on producer prices are due Thursday, a day before the closely watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect August CPI to have climbed 0.4%.
Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% annual target for several years although the prior month CPI showed just a mild rise.
Markets priced in a greater chance of a rate hike following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at its Jackson Hole conference. But Fed Funds futures suggest roughly even odds of a hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are cooling, he is inclined to argue for keeping rates steady.
Quarterly results for hyper-scaler Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) next week also could bring renewed focus on the AI trade.
(4) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) Likely Hikes 25 bps
The ECB is all but certain to raise rates by another 25 basis points on Thursday — a repeat of June's move.
Policymakers won't be happy to see inflation back above 3% as energy prices rise, so for traders, the question is what happens next.
Rate-setters don't have crystal balls, and it's anyone's guess how long the Iran war lasts, so they'll have little appetite to signal what's next.
Markets continue to bet on another move by December and one more next year. But economists reckon the ECB is done for now and the sharp rise in bond yields this summer may have done some of policymakers' work for them.
Also, watch what ECB Chief Christine Lagarde says about the U.S. selling euros to buy yen.
(5) Senegal Needs an IMF Bailout
It's not just the big global bond markets where trouble is brewing.
Two years after Senegal discovered what is now known to be over $10 billion of previously unknown debt, the government is bowing to the inevitability of an IMF bailout.
The quid pro quo is that it will have to fix its debt to make it sustainable in the long run. That's not as simple as it sounds, though, especially for a country in a monetary union — just ask Athens.
Dakar, therefore, doesn't want to include any of the "local" West African CFA franc debt lent to it by the region's banks and multilaterals.
That means the rest of its debt — especially the government bonds it sold on the international capital markets — will need to take a bigger hit.
It is likely to take months for it all to become clear, but next week could see an important development.
The IMF's board is due to discuss its Debt Sustainability Framework for Low Income Countries, and a change to those rules could make Senegal's situation look even worse.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Next, three fresh Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) large cap stocks.
(1) Hitachi (HTHIY - Free Report) : This is a $35 a share Japanese stock, with a market cap of $153.8B
It is found in the Zacks Diversified Operations industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 25.0.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Hitachi Ltd., headquartered in Tokyo, is one of the world's leading global electronics companies.
They manufacture and market a wide range of products, including computers, semiconductors, consumer products and power and industrial equipment.
(2) Interactive Brokers (IBKR - Free Report) : This is a $93 a share stock, with a market cap of $151.6B
It is found in Zacks Financial-Investment Bank industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
F12M P/E: 33.2.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Interactive Brokers Group Inc. operates as an automated global electronic market maker and broker.
The company specializes in routing orders, besides executing and processing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds and mutual funds on more than 135 electronic exchanges and market centers worldwide.
In the United States, it conducts its business primarily from Greenwich and Chicago.
Across the globe, it conducts business through offices in Canada, the U.K., Ireland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Hungary, India, China (Hong Kong and Shanghai), Japan, Singapore, and Australia.
The company has been working continuously to wind down its Market Making segment and focus more on the Electronic Brokerage segment.
The company strives to provide customers with advantageous execution prices and trading, risk and portfolio management tools, research facilities and investment products, all at low prices, positioning the company to achieve superior returns on investments.
(3) Siemens Energy AG (SMERY - Free Report) : This is a $34 a share stock, with a market cap of $141.6B
It is found in the Zacks Alternative Energy industry. The stock holds a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
F12M P/E: 30.4.
Siemens Energy AG is engaged in the energy technology.
The Company focuses on the design, development, manufacture and supply of products, installation and technologically advanced services principally in the renewable energy sector with a focus on wind power plants.
Siemens Energy AG is based in Germany.
Key Global Macro
Friday’s U.S. CPI data is the major macro print this short 4-day trading week.
On Monday, the U.S. celebrates the Labor Day holiday.
Japan’s GDP for Q2 comes out. The prior q/q figure was +0.3%., while the annualized figure was +1.1%. Neither are expected to change.
On Tuesday, Mainland China’s CPI for August comes out. The prior y/y number was +0.5%.
On Wednesday, there is a U.S. 10-year note auction. 4.68% is the current benchmark.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) likely movers the main refi rate to 2.65% from 2.40%. The rate on deposit facility likely moves to 2.5% from 2.25%.
On Friday, the U.S CPI data for August comes out. I see the broad CPI was +3.4% y/y in July, and the core CPI for July was +2.5%.
Conclusion
On Sept. 2nd, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian shared an earnings look-ahead.
Key points:
(1) Although corporate earnings have trended positively over the past two years, the current momentum is truly exceptional.
Growth is not only rapid and accelerating but also widely distributed across sectors and steadily expanding.
This broad-based strength creates a highly supportive backdrop for the market.
(2) The Q2 earnings season is ‘officially’ not over yet, with roughly a dozen S&P 500 members yet to come out with their quarterly results.
But for all practical purposes, the Q2 reporting cycle is now behind us, and we are starting to shift our attention to the Q3 earnings season.
(3) For Q3-26, Zacks expects total S&P 500 earnings will increase +23.0% from the same period last year on +11.1% higher revenues.
We expect 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors to enjoy positive earnings growth — and 6 sectors producing double-digit growth.
This will be the most broad-based earnings growth performance in recent times.
(4) With Conglomerates (-35.4%) and Consumer Staples (-0.1%) as the only Zacks sectors expected to have lower Q3 earnings relative to the year-earlier period, the quarter is on track to produce an impressively broad-based growth performance.
(5) Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) , Micron (MU - Free Report) and Nvidia (NVDA - Free Report) continue to be material contributors to the Tech sector’s growth picture. Excluding these three companies, Q3 earnings for the rest of the Tech sector would be +18.7% (versus +40.5% otherwise).
That’s it for this Global Week Ahead.
Kind Regards,
John Blank, PhD.
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist