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Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research

Stocks Closed Mixed After Bouncing Off Intraday Lows

Stocks closed mixed yesterday, but well off their intraday lows. And the Dow actually closed higher.

The headlines pointed to Snapchat's profit warning for rocking tech shares.

Maybe so. As the saying goes, 'misery loves company.' But I would not attach too much meaning to Snapchat's warning for the broader market. They are hardly a barometer for the stocks supposedly being dragged down by Snapchat's plunge. And SNAP, even prior to yesterday's -43% drop, was already down by -52% YTD vs. the S&P's -16%. So SNAP has plenty of problems. But their problems are their own.

There were other recognizable names seeing outsized losses as well. And that definitely had an unsettling effect on some.

But it should be noted that last week's intraday lows held. And the indexes all rebounded off their intraday lows from yesterday as well.

To me, it's looking more and more like the bottom could very well be in. At least temporarily.

And if economic numbers keep coming in fairly strong, and inflation readings cease going up (or go down again like the latest report showed), that could signal a sizable rebound to come.

Because the pullback we're seeing appears to be pricing in the worst case scenario, i.e., recession. But if it doesn't happen, then what? Likely a repricing of stocks to factor in the expected growth for this year and the tamping down of inflation.

St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, last week, said that he does not see a recession this year or next, and sees the economy growing by 2.5% to 3% this year. He qualified his statement saying that could change if there was a "really large shock" to the economy. But outside of that, he sees a "pretty good second half," driven by "strong consumption this year."

Sentiments worth noting.

As it stands now, valuations are already at 2-year lows. And with stocks having fallen for the last 7 weeks in a row, (8 weeks in a row for the Dow), the markets look grossly oversold.

And in this environment, a little bit of good news could go a long way.

Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods Orders, and the State Street Investor Confidence Index.

We'll also get the FOMC Minutes from the Fed's last meeting. And traders will be scrutinizing that for clues as to what they do at their next 2-day meeting which concludes on June 15th. For now, the market is expecting a 50-basis point hike, since that's essentially what the Fed said they were likely going to do.

In the meantime, everybody will be watching to see if the lows from last week hold. Remember, the S&P last week dipped into bear market territory intraday, before escaping by the close with a sharp rally.

Every day above that level is meaningful. Even more so, the further it pulls away from that level.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research


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