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Economic Outlook: Archive
Trends in U.S. Work-from-Home Data
by John Blank
The stabilized U.S. Work from Home Rate of 24.9% represents a new, permanent structural change in the U.S. economy, rather than a full reversion to pre-COVID norms.
QQQPositive Net Change
finance
The Worst Parts of U.S. 2025 Joblessness
by John Blank
While the headline U.S. unemployment rate remains low, these underlying trends signal a weakening U.S. economy, and increasing struggles for many U.S. job seekers.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
AI's Impact Emerges: A 5.5% California Unemployment Rate
by John Blank
The U.S. household unemployment rate is rising in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including a slowdown in job growth and increased labor force participation, with the August 2025 rate ticking up to 4.3%.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
Hyman Minsky's Concept
by John Blank
Many economists and policymakers have found Minsky's framework highly insightful for understanding how the housing and credit bubbles developed and ultimately burst.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
Hunting for Excesses (with AI's Help)
by John Blank
Want to endure my stock strategist/economist "wall of worries"? That 23.1 P/E share valuation ratio for the S&P500 is above the 5-year post-COVID average (19.9) and well above a longer current business cycle 10-year average (18.4).
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance
A Fresh Look at Indeed Job Postings
by John Blank
On June 2nd, 2025, the U.S. online job posting level has steadily been falling back to just +2% to +4% above the pre-pandemic Feb. 1st, 2020 level.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
Is a U.S. Real Estate Collapse in the Cards?
by John Blank
If a professional economist wants to look deeply for the source of a major U.S. recession, history shows that it can often be found in real estate price collapses.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance home-builder
Sizing Up 2025 U.S. Inflation
by John Blank
It's time to review the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) landscape. In this piece, I explore six U.S. inflation measures, using percent change from a year ago.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
banking finance
Making Sense of Trade Wars
by John Blank
U.S. trade with Mexico, Canada, and China in 2024 accounted for around 40% of America's total commerce in goods around the world.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
FEB 2025 Update: On U.S. Job Openings and Job Postings
by John Blank
In this piece, Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank will pull together the St. Louis Fed's (FRED) set of Job Opening and Job Posting indicators for your review.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
business-services finance