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Earnings Preview: Allergan

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Allergan, Inc. (AGN - Free Report) is scheduled to announce its first quarter 2012 results on May 2, 2012, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is 87 cents (year-over-year increase of 13%) on revenues of $1,380 million (flat year-over-year). This is just above the company’s first quarter guidance of 84-86 cents per share. Allergan expects first quarter 2012 revenues to be in the range of $1,340 million– $1,390 million.

Fourth Quarter Recap

Allergan, Inc. reported fourth quarter 2011 earnings of $1.00 per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a penny above the guidance range of 97-99 cents per share. While earnings increased 13.6% from the year-ago quarter, revenues increased 7.1% to $1,402.3 million. Revenues, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,408 million.

Fiscal 2011 earnings increased 15.5% from the year-ago period to $3.65 per share. Full year earnings were a penny above the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the company’s guidance range of $3.62–$3.64 per share. Revenues for the year increased 11.0% to $5,419.1 million, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Agreement of Estimate Revisions

Of the 21 analysts following the stock, 1 analyst revised the first quarter estimate upward and 1 trimmed the estimate in the last 30 days. There were no revisions during the last 7 days. We believe that most analysts are remaining on the sidelines prior to the earnings release and will adjust their estimates only after Allergan discloses its results.

Fiscal 2012 estimates too have been left untouched by majority of the analysts following the company. None of the analysts revised their 2012 estimates in the last 7 days. Only 3 analysts have revised 2012 estimates, with 2 raising estimates and 1 moving in the opposite direction in last 30 days.

Magnitude of Estimate Revisions

The magnitude of change was negligible and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter of 2012 remains unchanged at 87 cents. The upward revision was offset by the downward revisions and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the full year 2012 remains unchanged at $4.18 per share.

Surprise History

Allergan has surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and was in line with the estimates in one. The company recorded a maximum of 4.05% in the first quarter of 2011. On an average, the earnings surprise stood at 2.44%.

Our Recommendation

We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Allergan, which carries a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating).

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