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Economic Outlook: Archive
The Great U.S. Home Mortgage Lock-In
by John Blank
The average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate sat at 3.11% in 2020 and 2.96% in 2021. A full 48-52% of existing U.S. mortgages carried a rate lower than 4.0%, while 20% of active U.S. mortgages remained locked in below 3.0%.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change VMBSNegative Net Change MBBNegative Net Change
finance home-builder real-estate
Fresh Insight from FRED Generative "AI" Data
by John Blank
In the near term, there's a clear "AI" share valuation risk.
finance home-builder real-estate
Welcome to the Current U.S. Macro Set-Up
by John Blank
Despite aggressive Fed monetary tightening, underlying U.S. domestic demand has remained resilient and well-anchored, without collapsing into a recession.
NVDAPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance semiconductor
How to Use the Monthly BLS Jobs Report
by John Blank
If you go to the bottom of the BLS summary, you can extract a revised 'signal' from the fresher monthly march of data revision 'noise.'
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change
finance
The State of the Economy for Manufacturing
by John Blank
The swift rise of AI has already shifted the manufacturing landscape. That structural shift has major implications, for jobs, for products, and, of course, for stocks.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance industrial-products
Zacks Expectations for Fed Policy: April Econ Outlook
by John Blank
They can cut policy rates to lift a tepid U.S. jobs market. Then, accept a 'hot' 3.0%+ annual broad CPI rate, with the latest energy shock. Or raise the policy rate to slow inflation down. Holding the Fed Funds rate flat should be the compromise, for now.
artificial-intelligence finance industrial-products
Want a Credible Wall Street View? Zacks March 2026 Strategy
by John Blank
Jan Hatzius' latest extensive comments, including a research brief released on March 5th, specifically address the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on the domestic and global economy.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
banking fin-tech finance
Scaling Up: How Increasing Inputs Make A.I. More Capable
by John Blank
"The path to recent advanced AI systems has been more about building larger systems than making scientific breakthroughs."
AMZNPositive Net Change MSFTNegative Net Change ORCLNegative Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance
Final U.S. Q3 Real GDP Growth at +4.3%. GDPNow for Q4? +5.1%
by John Blank
Want another "nothing is really moving off the 2024 real GDP trend" mark? Global GDP is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to increase +2.8% in 2026.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
"Real" Consequences from the COVID Money Flood
by John Blank
A unique and massive U.S. coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and a technical regulatory change, led to a huge surge in deposits held by households, banks and businesses.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance