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Economic Outlook: Archive
Scaling Up: How Increasing Inputs Make A.I. More Capable
by John Blank
"The path to recent advanced AI systems has been more about building larger systems than making scientific breakthroughs."
AMZNPositive Net Change MSFTNegative Net Change ORCLNegative Net Change GOOGLPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance
Final U.S. Q3 Real GDP Growth at +4.3%. GDPNow for Q4? +5.1%
by John Blank
Want another "nothing is really moving off the 2024 real GDP trend" mark? Global GDP is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to increase +2.8% in 2026.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
"Real" Consequences from the COVID Money Flood
by John Blank
A unique and massive U.S. coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, and a technical regulatory change, led to a huge surge in deposits held by households, banks and businesses.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Trends in U.S. Work-from-Home Data
by John Blank
The stabilized U.S. Work from Home Rate of 24.9% represents a new, permanent structural change in the U.S. economy, rather than a full reversion to pre-COVID norms.
QQQPositive Net Change
finance
The Worst Parts of U.S. 2025 Joblessness
by John Blank
While the headline U.S. unemployment rate remains low, these underlying trends signal a weakening U.S. economy, and increasing struggles for many U.S. job seekers.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
AI's Impact Emerges: A 5.5% California Unemployment Rate
by John Blank
The U.S. household unemployment rate is rising in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including a slowdown in job growth and increased labor force participation, with the August 2025 rate ticking up to 4.3%.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Hyman Minsky's Concept
by John Blank
Many economists and policymakers have found Minsky's framework highly insightful for understanding how the housing and credit bubbles developed and ultimately burst.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Hunting for Excesses (with AI's Help)
by John Blank
Want to endure my stock strategist/economist "wall of worries"? That 23.1 P/E share valuation ratio for the S&P500 is above the 5-year post-COVID average (19.9) and well above a longer current business cycle 10-year average (18.4).
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance
A Fresh Look at Indeed Job Postings
by John Blank
On June 2nd, 2025, the U.S. online job posting level has steadily been falling back to just +2% to +4% above the pre-pandemic Feb. 1st, 2020 level.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance
Is a U.S. Real Estate Collapse in the Cards?
by John Blank
If a professional economist wants to look deeply for the source of a major U.S. recession, history shows that it can often be found in real estate price collapses.
QQQPositive Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance home-builder