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Economic Outlook: Archive
Hunting for Excesses (with AI's Help)
by John Blank
Want to endure my stock strategist/economist "wall of worries"? That 23.1 P/E share valuation ratio for the S&P500 is above the 5-year post-COVID average (19.9) and well above a longer current business cycle 10-year average (18.4).
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
artificial-intelligence finance
A Fresh Look at Indeed Job Postings
by John Blank
On June 2nd, 2025, the U.S. online job posting level has steadily been falling back to just +2% to +4% above the pre-pandemic Feb. 1st, 2020 level.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
finance
Is a U.S. Real Estate Collapse in the Cards?
by John Blank
If a professional economist wants to look deeply for the source of a major U.S. recession, history shows that it can often be found in real estate price collapses.
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finance home-builder
Sizing Up 2025 U.S. Inflation
by John Blank
It's time to review the U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) landscape. In this piece, I explore six U.S. inflation measures, using percent change from a year ago.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
banking finance
Making Sense of Trade Wars
by John Blank
U.S. trade with Mexico, Canada, and China in 2024 accounted for around 40% of America's total commerce in goods around the world.
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finance
FEB 2025 Update: On U.S. Job Openings and Job Postings
by John Blank
In this piece, Zacks Chief Strategist John Blank will pull together the St. Louis Fed's (FRED) set of Job Opening and Job Posting indicators for your review.
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business-services finance
The World's GDP Growth Rates & Home Property Markets
by John Blank
2024 has been a tumultuous year for geopolitics. Elections aplenty. Wars aplenty. Has it been as dramatic for the world's major economic regions?
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banking finance
4 Methods to Watch for a U.S. Recession
by John Blank
Chief Economist John Blank lists 4 ways to access whether a U.S. recession in underway. The 4 U.S. recession methods are listed in order of their popularity.
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finance
How Many Fed Rate Cuts to Expect (And Who Not to Listen To)
by John Blank
This week, traders organized rate cut probabilities for the U.S. Fed funds rate. Will we see twelve 25 bps cuts over time, or only nine?
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banking emerging-markets finance
To Cut or Not to Cut - That Is the Question
by John Blank
Here is a list of U.S. macro fundamentals, ones that suggest the FOMC should -- and should not -- not be cutting their policy rates.
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banking finance
Conclusions on JUNE Economic Outlook
by Anup Sadhu
We score two points for the equity market Bulls this month, and two points for the Bears
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auto-tires-trucks
Conclusions on JUNE Economic Outlook
by John Blank
We score two points for the equity market Bulls this month, and two points for the Bears.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
ad-tech
Putting the U.S. and World Economies Together
by John Blank
Real potential GDP is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's) estimate of the output the U.S. economy would produce, with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources.
SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change QQQNegative Net Change
business-services emerging-markets
Putting the U.S. and World Economies Together
by John Blank
Real potential GDP is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO's) estimate of the output the U.S. economy would produce, with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYNegative Net Change DIANegative Net Change
business-services emerging-markets
Will Swallowing This 'Paper Wealth' Pig End Badly?
by John Blank
Collectively, U.S. households are in much better shape than any other period in the data, going back to the early 1990s.
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advertising
In 2024, This Harvard Professor's Theory Lives On
by John Blank
Twenty-four years after a massive tech bubble formed on Wall Street, the same lesson does not correlate today. Read here to find out why.
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airlines finance tech-stocks
A Look at Foreign Direct Investment Leaders
by John Blank
Times do change. Corporate and technology structures inside the world economy can change dramatically.
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emerging-markets finance
The U.S. Experience with Supply Shock Inflation
by Anup Sadhu
This month???s special topic is U.S. Consumer Price Inflation. The reasons for focusing on this may seem obvious, to all of the savvy readers of this Zacks publication
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airlines
The U.S. Experience with Supply Shock Inflation
by John Blank
If history rhymes, the U.S. economy will continue to dis-inflate consumer price for the next 12 months, and the process will bottom sometime in early 2025.
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finance
A 2023 Christmas Holiday Season Shopping Report
by John Blank
We are midway thru the typically strong seasonal Christmas holiday shopping season. Let's tap the best U.S. retail sales data, and study the state of the U.S. consumer.
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consumer-discretionary retail
Time to Consult the 'Macro Snapshot'
by John Blank
The FRED Macro Snapshot is designed to provide insight into the macroeconomic data economists and policymakers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis use to analyze current economic conditions.
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finance
Is the U.S. Economy Warming Up or Cooling Down?
by John Blank
Has this post-COVID U.S. economy been expanding, stayed static, or did it contract this year? Of course, there is a critical second follow-on topic: Will this trend continue into next year?
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consumer-discretionary consumer-staples earnings finance
What Role Does Uncertainty Play?
by John Blank
The outlook over the next 12 months looks hazy to many. This is a key concern. Chief Strategist John Blank wants to address their worries in this month's special Zacks Econ section.
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banking finance
Bears See Leading Indicators, Bulls See Coincident Indicators
by John Blank
We all like to think Small Tech drives GDP growth. But Small Tech gets swallowed by Big Tech these days.
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banking finance
Diving into Macro Fundamentals and More to Help Investors Navigate June
by John Blank
Four times a year, Zacks does a survey of Chief Investment Officers (CIOs). Here is some of what these CIOs are thinking about on select macro fundamentals, alongside Zacks June 2023 forecasts and much more...
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earnings finance