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Will Boeing (BA) Beat Earnings Estimates This Quarter?

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We expect The Boeing Company (BA - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports second quarter 2013 results on Jul 24. Last quarter, it posted a 17.69% positive earnings surprise.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Boeing is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is at +1.27%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy): Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, 2 and 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell rated stocks (#4 and 5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.  

The combination of Boeing’s Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and +1.27% ESP makes us confident of a positive earnings beat on Jul 24, 2013.

What is Driving the Better Than Expected Earnings?

Although Boeing is facing hiccups with back-to-back disappointing news hurting its share price, the company remains well on track with its robust backlog and deliveries. The defense and aerospace major even outpaced its rival, Airbus, in terms of deliveries made in the first six months of this year. Boeing delivered 306 jetliners during the first half of the year, 6.6% higher than the year-ago level.

At the Paris Air Show, Boeing secured 692 airplane orders, which will boost the company’s future growth trajectory. Despite the technical issues with the 787 Dreamliner or the crashed 777 airplane, swelling orders and rising production schedule hint that this aerospace manufacturer is in for a multi-year run of steady revenue and profit growth.

The growth rate represents an acceleration from previous years. For this quarter and the next, growth is expected to be in the double digits at 24.2% and 17.2% respectively, while for 2013 and 2014, growth rates are also notable, coming in at 30% and 10.8%, respectively. The positive trend is seen in the trailing four-quarter average surprise of 15.05%.

Other Stocks to Consider

Boeing is not the only firm looking up this earnings season. We also see likely earnings beats coming from these companies:

Embraer SA (ERJ - Free Report) , with Earnings ESP of +6.35% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

General Dynamics Corp. (GD - Free Report) , with Earnings ESP of +0.61% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Wesco Aircraft Holdings, Inc. (WAIR - Free Report) , with Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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