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Will Big 5 Sporting (BGFV) Disappoint This Earnings Season?

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Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp. (BGFV - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter and fiscal 2013 results on Feb 25. Last quarter, it posted a 2.3% positive surprise. Let us see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Growth Factors in the Past Quarter

Benefits from the shift in July holiday sales and the company’s impressive merchandise improvement strategy facilitated approximately 3% growth in its top line in the last quarter. Moreover, same-store sales rose 1.4% over the year-ago quarter, in line with the low single-digit increase that the company had forecasted. Furthermore, we remain impressed with the company’s sustained focus on improvising merchandise margins and effective cost management, which helped it post strong bottom-line results for the seventh straight quarter.

Earnings Whispers?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Big 5 Sporting is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: ESP for Big 5 Sporting is 0.00% since the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 22 cents per share, which is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Zacks Rank #4 (Sell): Big 5 Sporting’s Zacks Rank #4 when combined with a zero ESP makes surprise prediction difficult. We caution against stocks with a Zacks Ranks #4 and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some other companies you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements:

First Solar, Inc. (FSLR - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

AutoZone, Inc. (AZO - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +1.99% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Foot Locker, Inc. (FL - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

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